Monday 1 January 2001


Around 2010, I noticed that Home sides in Germany's top division were under performing when favourites, and came up with the idea of Laying (betting against) such teams when they were odds-on. This simple parameter was modified as more data become available.

Laying is easily done with a single bet on the Exchanges, but you can recreate this by backing the Draw and Away options with a traditional sportsbook also.

The results are calculated using Pinnacle's Closing Prices as reported by Joseph Buchdahl's Football Data website. These prices have been recorded since the 2012-13 season.

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