Monday 1 January 2001

Bundeslayga System

In September 2010, I noticed that the strategy of laying certain Home Favourites in the German Bundesliga was consistently profitable, making this an ideal system for mitigating Betfair's Premium Charges.

The system has been profitable in both the Bundesliga and Bundesliga.2 leagues.

Initially the system was to lay (oppose) most teams priced at odds-on but as more data has become available, the exact range has expanded.

Because this is a Laying System, it’s really only suitable to be applied on the Betting Exchanges, although you could combine backs of the Draw and away team if you were desperate.

A note on the prices used. Since I don’t have reliable historical Lay prices, I use closing price data from Pinnacle Sports, courtesy of, and remove the margin using the "Equal Margin" method detailed in Joseph Buchdahl's excellent book "Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks".

This resulting 'fair' price is usually very close to the closing Exchange price, but remember there’s commission to pay on Exchange winning bets. In the seasons since 2012-13 for which we have the new system has lost money only once in both Bundesliga.1 (2013-14) and Bundesliga.2 (2016-17), and overall only in that one (2016-17) season.

Here’s a real life example as I write this, from Pinnacle Sports:

The Lay price, calculated by removing the margin is 1.673, very close to Betfair’s 1.68.

Because I have included the specifics of this system in the "Sacred Manuscript", it would not be fair to subscribers to give the precise details away for free, but the results from 2012-13 are as shown below:

** Results last updated on September 20th, 2022

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