Monday 1 January 2001

It's Official

To clarify what I mean when I say 'official' results, since there is unfortunately no recognised source for closing prices (or starting prices to use the horse racing term) for any sport with which this blog concerns itself.

For domestic league football betting, I use Football Data's very helpful spreadsheets and since the 2012-13 season, specifically Pinnacle Sports' Closing Prices. These cover the top two leagues for the Big Five footballing nations of Europe namely France, Germany, Italy and Spain and for England the top five leagues. 

Where I reference seasons prior to the Pinnacle era (as mentioned, 2012-13 forward), unless I specify that the raw odds are being used, I generally adjust the prices to 103%, and do the same to Pinnacle's, even where their overround is lower than this, thus ensuring that results are consistent across the years.

If you are new to betting, you not be aware that in the early years of this century, the average overround in EPL matches was 112.2%. 

For domestic cup competitions, European competitions and International matches, I use the average odds provided by Odds Portal generally adjusted to a 102% overround. These are typically higher profile matches, and the average overround on the raw prices is around 105.4% for International games and 106.3% for Europa and Champions League games, though closer to 104.2% for the past couple of years.

For the US sports I follow (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) my source, unless otherwise specified, is Killer Sports

None of these sources are perfect, nor are any of them optimal. As always, it pays to shop around and for many of us who find ourselves limited at the soft books, use Pinnacle or betting exchanges such as Betfair.

Bottom line is that my 'official' results can almost always be improved upon but the intent is to give a verifiable baseline to show the viability, or otherwise, of a strategy. 

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