Thursday, 31 March 2011

End Of Season System

With April traditionally my worst month of the year for trading, expect few, if any, posts for a couple of weeks as I will be spending a couple of weeks in the US with my son watching David Beckham, visiting some of California's MLB stadia for some early season games, and watching what is likely to be the Sacramento Kings last ever road game in their history. Strangely, Mrs. Cassini doesn't share the same love of sports or sense of history, choosing to spend the time with friends and family. Very odd.

Back to the Sacramento Kings, and it's looking increasingly probable that they will start next season in Anaheim, their sixth city after Rochester, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Omaha and Sacramento, and reclaim their original Royals moniker since there's already one 'Kings' team in the greater LA area. History repeating itself in a way, as they lost the Royals name after moving to Kansas City where there was already a 'Royals' baseball team.

A few days ago I promised a strategy for the end of the football season, and I'm a man of my word. It's not rocket science, but given the fact that from now until the end of the season is 'silly' season, simply lay all qualifying favourites. I say 'qualifying' because as I mentioned last December, the value on teams at 1.3 or less is in backing them, not laying.

In the top five European leagues last season, laying qualifying favourites from April on would have given 46.3 points profit from 315 matches, 14.7% ROI.

It's a simple, low-risk strategy, which should soothe the frustrations of spending hours poring over stats only to see everything go out the window with teams giving less than their all. I can't believe I give this stuff away!


Love Stuff On Sale said...


Have you checked how this strategy would hold up in the years before last season?

I had a quick look at the EPL for 2009 and 2010 and it had quite a negative expectation in those years.

Max said...

I wanted to ask if we can do a link exchange?
I've already added your link in my "partner page”.
My blog name is “BEST BETTING BLOG”

Thanks in advance, Max

Anonymous said...

i like the sound of this system, ill give it a shot this weekend and test with small stakes - 22 selections including newcastle and roma which are currently just above 2 but hopefully get matched at 1.99. average lay odds of 1.765.

so, to break even we need the 9 selections with highest odds to come through, or the 10 selections with the lowest odds. or a mixture of both ;p

Robin said...


Could you clarify what you mean by a 'qualifying favourite'? Is it simply a fave priced between 1.3 and 1.99 or is there more too it, such as a fav with nothing to play for at the end of the season?

I have a spreadsheet for Prem, Liga and Serie A which would be able to give a good idea of how this would have gone over the last 9 seasons if it is simply just based on the price.