Friday, 18 March 2011

Hannover Fits

Not a single strong draw pick from today's or tomorrow's fixtures, but the following home teams look value to me for tomorrow: Hannover '96 (2.36) v TSG Hoffenheim, Nuremberg (2.32) v Werder Bremen and Aston Villa (1.95) v Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Rationale? Hannover have exceeded expectations in four of the last five games, while Hoffenheim have fallen short in four of the last five. It's a little embarrassing how short I have Hannover for this, so let's just say that 2.36 looks huge value to me.

Nuremberg have outperformed in their last six matches, while Werder Bremen, in typical Bundesliga style, failed to beat Moenchengladbach last week and have won just one game in their last eight.

Aston Villa and Wolves have similar recent form (no poor performances between them), but what tips this is Aston Villa's home form against lower teams. So far in the five home games versus teams below themselves, they have won four, and drawn one. All four wins were over 2.5 goals as well and while the available price on Over 2.5 goals is already value at 1.91, that's an extra reason to back it. I have this at 1.74.

Lorient (2.1) v St Etienne and Olympique Lyonnais (1.82) v Stade Rennes also made the short-list, but missed the final cut.

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