Wednesday 22 June 2011


With a daily average of 341 (give or take), it is 1.01 that at some point in time today, this blog will receive it's 250,000th hit. That's quite a lot. The inaugural post was three years and three months ago, the opening day of Spring, 2008.

While these stats may not be totally accurate (they were introduced after I'd started by Blogger at the 110k hit mark) the number one post in terms of hits is the one titled Free Betting Systems which suggests that many a) people are looking for a quick fix and b) they don't want to pay for it. Incidentally, before I am deluged with e-mail requests for them, the Free Betting Systems are no longer available - I lost them when I had a technical failure, but they were all rubbish anyway and they are not missed.

The top referral blog by some distance is Sport Is Made For Betting followed by the blogs of Cran The Trader and Mark Iverson. All three have been around for some time, with Marky Sparky going back to 2006, Scott 2008 and Cran 2009. The blog world changes fast, and the longevity of all of us is no mean feat.

I get frequent requests for a link exchange (two just yesterday) and while I usually accommodate these requests, many fall off the blog roll after hitting three months without update. I suspect that many blogs are started by people younger than myself (OK, so there are not too many people left who are older than me), and they are brimming with youthful enthusiasm as they discover betting exchanges and the promise of untold riches. It must come as something of a shock to find out that it's not that easy, and recording losses on a blog or writing about a losing hobby, isn't easy.

While I am disciplined enough on the betting part of my spreadsheet to enter the numbers each day, (I almost enjoy losses these days because of the Premium Charge) there is certainly not the same enthusiasm for updating spreadsheet pages with disappointing data whether it be weight, financial or running times.

The top Internet search words that land a surfer on my blog, other than "Green All Over" or similar, is "Adam Heathcote fake". "Psychoff" also gets a place in the top 10. Again, it appears there are a lot of gullible people out there all looking for easy money. I know Adam Heathcote had his disciples, but once he cashed in on his 'advisory service', he rapidly fell out of favour. One subscriber to his 'service' wrote on 16 Aug at 23:34:

"Adam Heathcote is totally legitimate and a bloody nice guy. Reasons for setting up the service is, why not? It's nice to run your own business and it increases self worth, and it's a great price for what he is offering in fairness."
Same guy, (20 hours later) 17 Aug 19:27:
"Can I post a full and frank apology. Got this all very wrong. The service being provided is truly truly, utterly horrific."
I really hate being right all the time. It's a curse.

Having opened my Betfair account in March 2004, it was almost four years later that I started blogging. I can't remember what made me decide to start one, but I've always enjoyed writing, and perhaps after four years and several wrong turns, I felt I had something to offer. John the Gambler's blog was one of the first I read, but that spiralled into a sad tale of woe not long after. John O'Dwyer continues the trend. "Lost £1.23 this week. It's no good - I just haven't got the bank to make it work. I'm still up overall, If I had £500 I could start making money tomorrow. Common sense says I should get a job, but I have no common sense etc..." Same every post.

But back to me. Was it coincidental that the previous January (2008) was, at that time, my best ever month of trading? I made no reference to it in my opening post, repeated here:
What is "Green All Over?"

The title is a reference to 'Greening-up', a term used by Betfair users to describe the ideal scenario whereby every possible outcome on an event will result in a profit. (The 'what-if' figure shows on the screen in green.)

I have been active on Betfair for almost four years now, and have had some moderate success. Some good wins, some small wins, some small losses and some frightening losses, but overall I have made a steady profit.

I have recently starting reading a number of blogs themed on Betfair, hoping to pick up some ideas, but sadly most seem to be a diatribe of eating and drinking habits, interspersed with less than informative betting related comments like "Lost £2.67 on the cricket today".

So, as arrogant as ever, I am hoping to fill this gap with a blog that goes a little deeper into the reasons why I made or lost money, my thoughts and emotions as the win / loss was happening, and perhaps filled with other observations from the world of betting.

If horse-racing is your thing, then this blog is probably not for you. Racing is just not for me. Rather like the stock-exchange, there are far too many insiders with access to a lot more information than I have and I find that the world of sports offers a more even playing field.

My investing style, and I prefer the term 'investing' over 'betting', is to trade fast moving sports in-running, looking for value. The markets are driven by two factors, fear and greed, and in the heat of battle, these factors drive people to make bad decisions and take or offer poor value bets. This is what I look for. I don't always win, but like I explained to my old Mum, if I can get 2-1 on a coin toss, I'll lose some but win a lot more. Sadly I don't often find 2-1 on evens chances, but in Betfair terms if I can get 2.1 on a 2.0 chance, I'm happy.
In many ways, not much has changed. My old Mum is even older. I'm still as arrogant as ever, taking pride in being called the Marmite Blogger!I still don't like horse-racing and P&L blogs continue to leave me cold, but has blogging helped my bottom line? It may have. I certainly don't bet with the thought "...but would my readers approve of this?" but it has undoubtedly led me to think about betting a little differently, and I have probably read more betting and trading books than otherwise might have been the case.

My first 4 years on Betfair yielded about 33% of my total profits, with the past 3 1/4 years generating the remainder, in spite of the Premium Charge that was introduced in September 2008. That's a significant improvement although 2004 and 2005 were my apprentice years, barely ending 2005 in four figures.

There have also been a few comments that have got me thinking, and my Elo based spreadsheet has probably evolved far more, or far sooner, than it might have done with no blog.

The most amusing comment in 250,000 hits was probably one in support of Adam - A "Stephen Hughes" said...
sorry, but you are clearly a miserable old man. Get a life pal, having read snippets of your blog you demonstrate extreme arrogance. Who the hell do you think you are? Take a look at yourself and learn from people like Adam. Your the type of bloke that would marry a Thai bride, sport a little beard and wear crocs. Write about something interesting ffs. Youre an idiot.
I cried for days after reading that, married a Californian girl, shaved off my goatee and bought some alligs.


Mark Iverson said...

Congrats on the milestone Cassini - love it when you call me Marky Sparky too, it's kind of affectionate - lol ;-)

500-5000 said...

Hi Cassini,

Cheers for your comments about my blog the other day. Very useful. I m still going, but re-considering the way I trade all the time. Thanks to advice from yourself and others. Awesome blog.

G said...

Well done on reaching the 1/4 mil Cassini - I must admit to being a habitual viewer of your blog and an occaisional commentor (well once actually about discipline, i really appreciated your indepth response btw).

I actualy have another question that hopefully you can answer (no rush enjoy wallowing on the success of the blog).

When your identifying an in-running value trade/bet in a basketball match do you have a spreadsheet with what the price should be for a team at a certain time during a game?

E.g. Dallas are up by 5, 7 mins gone in the 3rd quarter (would you have on your 'sheet a price for this type of scenario and if a bigger price is available then you would play?) - is this how it's done?

Or have you honed your skills to such an extent that you can determine a value bet/trade almost auto-magically now?

Best regards


Curly said...

Congratulations Cassini, it wasn't too long ago that you were 'celebrating' the 100K mark. Exponential. Hope you're make it to the half mil and beyond; a little like G I'm an avid reader of your blog and have probably put a fair few (too many) of those counts on the meter.

All the best