Saturday 18 June 2011

El Tricolor

I am beginning to think that backing the Over 3.5 goals in elimination games when the score is 2-1 is a winning strategy. It worked rather well in the UEFA Champions League final, and it worked again today in the U-17 World Cup game between Mexico and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, aka North Korea.

Obviously, in elimination games, teams trailing by 1-2 have no option but to chase the game and leave themselves exposed to a breakaway goal. While I have no reason to believe that the market is incorrectly pricing these games, for an interest and a Premium Charge reduction strategy, I can think of worse ideas. It is always possible that the relatively small number of matches that meet this criteria means that the market is not priced efficiently, but something to watch anyway.

The elimination phase of the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2011 tournament begins today with Costa Rica v Honduras and Mexico v Guatamala. In a lean summer for football, this is as good as it gets, and I'll be watching for 2-1 score-lines!

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