Tuesday 7 June 2011

Reality Check

I recently removed the link to John O'Dwyer's blog, as none of you most likely noticed. It was getting rather repetitive, with the set format of each post along the lines of "still no money due to a small bank size", never mind that I have told John (pictured above)that bank size isn't the issue, betting without an edge is the issue.

He clearly isn't interested in advice, as several helpful comments were never published, proof that while, as the saying goes, “you can lead a whore to culture, you can't make her think”. Or something like that.

While I'm not holding my breath that he is serious about finishing, (that would suggest he had seen the truth, which I doubt), he did write a post yesterday, later redacted, that went:

Finished is a headline I hoped I wouldn't use. Nearly anyway. If I wrote the extent of how bad things really are on here it would shock a few people, and it has nothing to do with losing. I've not been losing recently, I've just not had the means to do anything about it for the time I need. There is big money to be made here as well. I've already won £350 mythical quid from predicting a new winner of the woman's French Open and Rafa as the winner of the men's, but what good is that?! When I did make the money I made 2 weeks back, I withdraw most and paid off various credit cards. I've been using an ultra small bank and seeing as this is my only form of income, it's an impossible task.

I've had a bad few months overall on Betfair and not been able to do what I did last year. I know a 1001% why. I'm using too small a bank size. My Betfair bank at the moment is £2.66 and it's not been higher than a tenner for about a week now, hence the small amount. I owe about 5k in total which again is not betting related. That £2.66 is the lot for me. I'm all sold out.

Wish me luck, and thanks.
Contrast the two quotes “I’ve had a bad few months overall on Betfair” with “I’ve not been losing recently”. Eh?

While I have not had my account as low as £2.66, I was at one time down to £21.40 from an initial, and to date only, deposit of £98.50, so I do have some knowledge of working with a small bank. It can be done. The difference though is that while my account was a hobby, and I had the time to experiment and find what worked with no pressure, John thinks that he can generate an income from his balance just like that. Well, good luck with that idea.

A golden rule of gambling is never to bet with money that you can't afford to lose. Scared money (fear) leads to poor decisions. Your mind has to be clear, alcohol free, and well rested too, although the rest thing to me simply means a good night’s sleep. A two week holiday to recharge your batteries is overkill – from a trading perspective, it’s as useful as charging your mobile for two weeks.

If you're distracted by outside factors, you're not going to succeed in this game.

I’ve made plenty of errors, but that’s acceptable if you learn from them. As John F Kennedy said “An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it”.

Alcohol? Lost £1,317.82 on 31st August 2006.

Distracted? Lost £3,148.76 on 25th July, 2006.

Tired? Lost £5,183.31 on 1st January, 2007.

Chasing? Lost £2,841.59 on 4th January, 2007.

Ouch, but lessons learned.

John does have it right when he says “There is big money to be made here as well” because there is. The problem is that everyone else is after it too, and you need to be patient and disciplined in the struggle for it.

And, of course, well hydrated!


Brian said...

Good post there. Some big losses though. How did you recover form them and what 5 of your bank did they account for? What is the max % you would bet nowadays compared to in the past?

Keep up the good work.

Brian said...

That should read "what %" not "waht 5" by the way....

Mark said...

Hi Cassini

I Enjoyed this post: I referred to it here http://patientspeculation.blogspot.com/2011/06/changes-again-bank-on-it.html