Thursday 2 June 2011

All About Pete


With the Champions League and French League both reaching their conclusion this past weekend, the ratings and other numbers are now final for the season. 

With the Strong Draws finishing with one more winner from two selections, the total for this system for 2011 is 24 from 69 selections (34.8% - average price 3.44), and a profit of 13.45 points with an ROI of 19.49%. Only half-a-season of tracking these selections, but they compare well to Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster system which, for the full season, went 38 from 119 (31.9%), with an ROI (by my calculations) of 13%. 

Pete does handicap himself by sticking to the EPL (or lower English leagues when there are no EPL games) and by 'having' to find three draws a week. As I've written before, some weeks there may be none, other weeks possibly ten, so the chances are that either he is reaching to find selections, or he is leaving winners on the table. I prefer the more freestyle approach of picking selections based on their merit, and if there are no selections or twenty selections, so be it.

Teamprofit asked "Interesting. What do you look for when spotting these candidates?" and the answer is that I use an Elo based rating system to tell me the matches for which a draw would leave the ratings for both teams unchanged (or almost unchanged). Over the past two seasons, this has proven to be a strong indicator, and while long losing runs can be unsettling, at 3.4+ per winner, a strike rate north of 30% is a long-term winner.

Once again, the Premium Charge is a factor with my Total Charges dipping to below 18.3% following last weeks big (for me) win. Looking for a "win some / lose slightly less" system to mitigate the charge, I've been following Pete Nordsted's baseball selections, and they are performing rather well. I've only been following them since April 18th, and the 54 selections since then have gone 27-27 and are showing a profit of 3.27 points, (ROI 6%). Pete posted an update while I was away which is worth a read if you are interested in baseball betting. 

Betting on baseball is arguably trickier in April and May than later in the season than once form is a little more established, so it will be interesting to see if the success continues. Almost all the research shows that a system backing the underdogs will be more successful than one backing the favourites, but as in football, there is a point where it pays to back the short-priced favourite. I first identified this back in the 2001 season when I had too much time on my hands, and I believe it still holds true - probably for the same reason that I suspect it holds true in football.

3 comments:

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Cassini,

Just a quick question - have you worked out how much you need to lose each week to avoid the PC based on your average weekly win and commission rate?

All the best

Mark

Mr Stretch said...

Cassini

Once again congratulations on your most informative blog. Just a quick word on a number of points. This years Drawmaster did not go as well as last year where I made 30 points profit and you are right this season I did these selections for goal.com and it was part of the preview I would do 3 matches so if one came in you were in profit and the readers seemed to enjoy this although I certainly believe being a little more selective would have produced a bigger profit. All I can say is the 3 selections I picked every week were the 3 best rated for that weekend and I never strayed from that course.

As regards the baseball my colleague is doing OK and hopefully he will be able to return a good profit by the end of the season. I am pleased with way the opposing the home favourite with a negative rating has gone and this is showing a profit of just over 18 points in 110 bets which equates to a 16.54 Return on Investment. I will ensure a ratings result table goes up on the site very soon.

As Ive said before I do not know one end of a baseball bat from another so it will be interesting to see where this goes and it is interesting to note your comments on when the strong home favourites start turning it on. the only thing I would say to anybody considering following these ratings is please be aware as you will soon see by the table losing and winning runs can be streaky and a long losing run can play tricks on the mind and havoc with your bank if you are not used to betting like this. So please make sure you are always correctly capitalised keep the stakes low and understand you can have a substantial drawdown and also please be aware that at this moment in time we are just experimenting here although initially the results do look promising.

all the best and keep up the good work with the blog

Pete Nordsted

Mr Stretch said...

Cassini

Once again congratulations on your most informative blog. Just a quick word on a number of points. This years Drawmaster did not go as well as last year where I made 30 points profit and you are right this season I did these selections for goal.com and it was part of the preview I would do 3 matches so if one came in you were in profit and the readers seemed to enjoy this although I certainly believe being a little more selective would have produced a bigger profit. All I can say is the 3 selections I picked every week were the 3 best rated for that weekend and I never strayed from that course.

As regards the baseball my colleague is doing OK and hopefully he will be able to return a good profit by the end of the season. I am pleased with way the opposing the home favourite with a negative rating has gone and this is showing a profit of just over 18 points in 110 bets which equates to a 16.54 Return on Investment. I will ensure a ratings result table goes up on the site very soon.

As Ive said before I do not know one end of a baseball bat from another so it will be interesting to see where this goes and it is interesting to note your comments on when the strong home favourites start turning it on. the only thing I would say to anybody considering following these ratings is please be aware as you will soon see by the table losing and winning runs can be streaky and a long losing run can play tricks on the mind and havoc with your bank if you are not used to betting like this. So please make sure you are always correctly capitalised keep the stakes low and understand you can have a substantial drawdown and also please be aware that at this moment in time we are just experimenting here although initially the results do look promising.

all the best and keep up the good work with the blog

Pete Nordsted