Sunday, 15 April 2012

Grow For Dough

Thanks to Gundulf for pointing out that the last line of my modified slide in the previous post should have read "Accepts Losses With" rather than "Accepts Outcome With" since, as he noted, not many casual punters are irritated by a win.

There was some interesting movement in the pre-game Lorient v Montpellier markets. This game was the third and final XX Draw Selection of the weekend, and for some reason the Under 2.5 price moved out from 1.58 of three days ago to 1.76 at kick-off. That's a big move by any standards, and as all readers should by now be aware, this should have been accompanied by a drift in the draw price. My draw bet was matched on Friday at 3.35 (the high was yet at kick-off was down to around 3.2. Both moves cannot be right, so a doubling up of the Unders seemed too good an opportunity to miss. Turned out not to be the case. With Lorient taking the lead fairly late, I felt any next goal would come from a title chasing Montpellier, and that both teams would settle for the 1-1, but Lorient scored a second and the Under was in jeopardy - for all of a minute, until Montpellier pulled one back, and I was back to needing an equaliser, only without the safety net of the Unders. A disappointing final result of 2-1.

Ian Erskine's Draw Lay Selections just keep on winning, with another winner in the Malaga v Real Sociedad match today.

A good comment from Webbo on the topic of increasing turnover but at the cost of the ROI:
The power of turnover!

I have also recently realised just how benefitial making more bets can be even if the ROI goes down.

Now I'm making more selections I'm also less bothered about individual bets and am much more able to display the detached trait and accept results with equanimity.
I can certainly identify with this. The XX Draw Selections are relatively few, maybe 160 this season, so it is easy to become emotionally attached to them. While it's not quite the same as diversifying your stock selections, it's a similar idea. Having nine of ten selections a week makes it a lot easier to achieve the equanimity we seek. With just a handful of selections, although we know better, a set of poor results can be irritating, and as with today's previously mentioned Lorient v Montpellier match, I watch a little more nervously than I should as the clock ticks down, knowing that I am responsible for thousands of pounds on the draw - how else to explain the plunge in the draw price?

There was a great post on Scott Ferguson's blog on the ROI percentage subject almost exactly a year ago, a good time to refresh our memories - the full post is here, but the concluding sentence sums it up:
Return on Investment for show, Rate of Bank Growth for dough. £, not %. As I’ve always said, “Value doesn’t pay the bills”.
Football Elite went for a shortie today, picking Nancy at 1.84 (DNB) to beat Bordeaux, but they came up short drawing 2-2 with Nancy conceding a 90' equaliser - so a push there.

While my ratings apply to league games, and the FA Cup is a different beast, it's hard not to take an interest in the upcoming game. If this were a league game, I would have the Under 2.5 goals price at 1.84, and while the 1.99 available isn't great value, it's an edge I am comfortable with for a 'fun' bet.

1 comment:

BigAl said...

Your claim that the draw price always has to drift when the unders price drifts is quite simply not true.

I have no idea if the price moves were correct or not in the match you mention, but your blanket statement is incorrect.

If the market's expectation of total goals in a match changes, then other expectations change too - including the most important variable of the lot.