Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Out Of Sync

Prior to last night's match at Arsenal, Wigan Athletic were positioned in 9th place in my Elo based ratings, surprisingly high if you only look at the league table, though perhaps not so surprisingly if you look at the last-6 match form table, where they are now sitting in third spot. For a team that was traded at 1.16 to go down not so long ago, to say they have turned it around is a massive understatement. After last night's data was entered, Wigan are now up to 8th, after starting the season in 12th place. All wins are not the same in the Elo world, and I look at more than just the final score, which can often give a false impression.

One other team with a big differential between my ratings and the table is Liverpool, who I have currently ranked third, suggesting their underlying performances haven't been so bad as their results (prior to Saturday anyway) have been of late.

My bottom three is descending order are the same as the league table, but just above the line looking up, I have Stoke City, Swansea City and Queens Park Rangers - some teams to consider for the relegation market next season. Of the non-promoted teams at the start of the season, my bottom three rated teams were Wolverhampton Wanderers, Bolton Wanderers and Sunderland.

Teams desperate to win can be worth a back in other sports too when it gets towards the end of the season. In the NBA's Western Conference, three teams - Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns (Portland Trail Blazers were eliminated last night) are all chasing the last play-off spot, with Portland hosting Utah in two days. I wonder who will be approaching that game with a winning mindset!

I have had to remove the blog Daily25 from the blogroll. Graeme Dand sent me an e-mail to say that there was malware associated with this site, and so it was removed on Sunday, the same action being taken by Andy Pandy over at My Sports Trading Journey.

No details have been received as to how an increase in goals would make the draw more likely, but a vote of support from Tony for the conventional wisdom which is appreciated. Tony asks:
Does Al have a blog?
Not that I am aware, but it's an idea for him. He certainly writes a lot, but unfortunately most of it is in the form of riddles, with no actual evidence to support his claims. He could very well be religious in fact.

Finally, a quick tip for those of you wishing to improve your Apple experience. Simply rename your iPhone 'Titanic', and you'll find it syncs much faster.

1 comment:

BigAl said...

You might want to think about the fact that there are factors which at the same time as increasing the goal expectancy will also have a strong impact on the supremacy. God knows, you might even be able to work out the kind of factor I'm talking about but I suspect not. Or, if you can work it out, you'll try to argue against it, and twist earlier statements from both of us to suit your argument.

It is possible this can result in no change to the draw price, or even a contraction. Stick it in your pricing spreadsheet and try it.

Remember, I haven't said it was the case in the match you mentioned. I was merely pointing out the error of your blanket statement.

As usual, you'll probably attempt to pick holes in what is a matter of fact. Because that's what people with your blinkered mindset do. I won't prepare a nice helping of humble pie for you.