Tuesday, 11 February 2014

FTL Fab Four

Another weekend behind us, and that means another update to the FTL sponsored by TFA. It's rather disappointing that the number of selections showing a profit is down to five, but another eight are not too far behind.

First the fab five, although it's really only four since Skeeve and Skeeve Official are essentially the same selections, with the difference being in how the selections are backed:

The Cassini Value Selections extended their lead with three winners from three:
Hofs Hackers made 0.31 points from 17 selections, while Skeeve lost 0.15 points but the Skeeve Official double lost losing one point. Webbo dropped 3.54 points and below Skeeve in the rankings.

In the group "showing a loss, but not by too much", four entries lost money to drop into the red. Jamie A lost 3.68 points, but is still in line for fourth place prize money. Fairfranco lost 4.54, and Fedslam lost 4.94 and the three Bundelayga selections all came up empty without a goal between them.
The XX Draws had a decent weekend, making 5.1 points with the Unders adding 0.33 points, but Pete Norsted's Drawmaster continued its dry run with another four losers. The Football Analyst made 0.47 points but remains in 13th place with the bounty liability still at £225.

As for the rest, here are the standings:
Football Elite (Modified) lost 2.56 points, Forza Fizzer lost 1.17 points, and Premier Betting lost 0.15 points. Premier Betting's Official Account Bets lost another three points, but Rubicon had a great weekend making nearly 8 points. Bookie's Friend Neil, sorry - that should be "Punter's Friend" Neil, lost 0.17 points and is in red by exactly twice the amount of the next worst entry, who took another week off, or may have pulled up. Scatter Gun and Graham C have also gone quiet. (Just teasing Neil). 

With most entrants focused on the English Leagues, there may well be some changes after the upcoming midweek round of matches.

I had one comment, Anonymous, but from a recent subscriber to the XX Draws and More service, who wrote about my posts last week about the increase in goals and corresponding decline in draws:
Based on the figures you have come up with and the previous post on numbers of goals etc is it likely the XX draws is going to return negative long-term results. Joined up recently as I was looking for an edge in my betting but the posts I mentioned don't fill me with confidence.
The observations I pointed out weren't intended to drain anyone's confidence in the long-term strategy of selectively backing the draw, but I thought it was worthy of note. Whether or not this season is a blip or turns out to be part of a trend remains to be seen. Long term, the XX Draws across all five leagues hit at an implied price of 3.25, and while Pinnacle offer very tight odds on the draw, especially in France and Italy (3.02 anyone?) these prices can often be beaten, and on the exchanges, by some margin. Also, the observation applied to draws in general, and not to the sub-set of XX Draws,

Here's a look at how the Professionals are doing this season:
As with Skeeve, Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting Account Bets are also essentially the same, so the combined loss looks worse than it is, but pre-season, not many of us would have had three of the four 'professionals' mired in the red at this stage of the season.

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