Monday, 3 February 2014

Imperfect Arrangement

Before this week's update tomorrow, a clarification on the FTL.

Matt from Football Elite emailed me about the discrepancy between my P&L numbers in the FTL for him, and his own official numbers. The reason is simple. Because I record the results using Pinnacle's prices from the Football Data web site, when Matt has a Draw No Bet selection, I record it as a lay of the opposing team. There are no DNB prices available, so this is a fair way to ensure that all of Matt's selections count, and any matches ending as a draw will benefit him in the FTL table. However when selections such as Stoke City to beat Manchester United DNB result in a home win, Matt's profits are reduced in the FTL table.

It's a similar situation with the Over / Under selections. The Football Data site doesn't give the prices for any OU markets but the 2.5, so I always use this. Again it can work in the tipsters favour or against him. Tipping Under 1.5 in a two goal game gives the tipster a winner in the FTL, but if the game is a one goal game, the profit will of course be reduced.

It's not a perfect arrangement, and the FTL isn't intended to match the official results of the Professional services, but more to give a fair means for comparisons. Pinnacle are by no means always, or even often the best prices out there, but they have a reputation for taking bets and are a decent benchmark. One of the problems with rating services is that often the top prices quoted are not available to most people. Bet Victor might advertise the best prices for example, (especially on Favourites and Home selections), but they are one of the fastest to close you down if you look like you're anything but clueless.

The take away from this is that the numbers are probably on the low side across the board, illustrated by a comment from Rugby Trader regarding my own XX Draws:

Hi Cassini, You should take a look at Marathonbet as well, I place a heavy majority of the XXDraws there I am currently at XX Draws = 10.91 versus 0.59 official
As you might expect, there are a number of entries with opinions on the Manchester City v Chelsea game tonight, and there is also the "Derby of the Lighthouse" in Italy, so the latest table will be updated at the conclusion of those games.  

1 comment:

Ellis Rayner said...

Surely you should just derive the DNB from the the Pinnacle match odds?