Tuesday, 4 February 2014

FTL Update 3.2.2014

It's all tightening up in the FTL. The top two remain the same, both making small losses, but up to third is Webbo on the back of an an 8.2 point gain this weekend. Skeeve drops down a place after a small loss, and up to sixth, and into the final money spot shoots Fairfranco who gained 9.41 points. Of the others still in profit, Jamie A dropped 3 points and the Bundeslayga selections lost 1.97 points.

In the group showing a loss, but not by too much, Pete Norsted's Drawmaster has hit a dry spell, as have the XX Draws. The XX Draws (Unders) made a small profit, but the Football Analyst made another loss, this time just 2.34 points but the two places dropped means the bounty rises to £225 with nine eligible entries ahead of him.  Not far behind after a strong week is Football Elite (Modified) to make it clear that these totals are not 'Official' as I explained yesterday. Ellis suggested I could derive the implied DNB price from Pinnacles prices - as if this doesn't take enough time as it is! 

It also involves some messing around with the over-round, but for anyone interested in the maths, if the odds (Home, Draw, Away) are 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33 the true probabilities are 40% - 30% - 30% respectively.

For the DNB calculation, we ignore the draws, (in this case 30%), so the Home DNB price is 1.75 (40/70) and for the Away DNB it is 2.33 (30/70).

This would be a more accurate reflection of Matt's results, but I have been using the "lay the opponent" for other entrants Asian Handicap calculations too, and having reached February, I won't change at this stage of the season.
Not much movement at the bottom of the table, with a few entrants appearing to have given up, but not last placed Neil who, ever the optimist wrote:
That break-even looks a hell of a long way off at the moment :-(
He did take a step in the right direction this weekend with a profit of 2.46 points, but the end of the season may arrive before we see him break-even at that rate.

1 comment:

Steve said...


You made the sultan quit you big bully.