Thursday, 6 February 2014

Goal Watching

Good for the Bundeslayga, but not so good for the XX Draws is the fact that away teams in the Bundesliga and Serie A are this season currently on schedule for a record high number of goals.

In Germany the projected total of 433 will break the record set last season of 411. With home goals also close to record highs, the current Bundesliga season is looking likely to become the first to average over 3 goals per game in the past ten years (top 5 European Leagues only).

In Serie A, the away team is averaging 1.19 goals (453 goals), and as in Germany, last seasons record of 435 is set to be beaten, while in La Liga, the pattern is similar. 2012-13 was the second most productive for away teams in ten years, but 2013-14 looks set to beat that total. Overall in Spain, a record number of goals is possible (1,101 is the record, with 1,105 at the current rate) - no wonder that the draw total there is headed to the lowest in ten seasons.

Some of you may recall the debate early in the EPL season about the lack of goals. As I wrote at the time, my opinion was that:
...the goals will pick up soon enough, although as I said earlier, probably not by enough to match the averages of the last three seasons.
So as we close in on two-thirds of the season complete, where are we now? I hear you ask. The average number of goals over the last 10 years has been 1,005 and right now the average per game puts the total at 1,021 - back to normal, but not enough to match the averages of the last three seasons which were the highest of the last 10 seasons.  Again, not good news for the XX Draws is the fact that the EPL is on course for the lowest number of draws, with the second lowest total of the last 10 years.

In the lowest scoring of the top leagues, Ligue 1, the goals per game is bang on the average for the past five seasons, and the draws are similarly headed for the average.
2013-14 Projections

One other observation is that in every one of the big five Leagues, the average goals per game over the last five seasons has gone up from the previous five seasons (See Screenshot) including the away goals in every league. The increase is highest in La Liga, where this season is looking likely to surpass the long-term averages in Germany. Of course, the omnipresence of giants Barcelona and Real Madrid make this an unusual league, (the current success of Atletico Madrid is a welcome breath of fresh air) but there's a definite recent increase in goals, in these leagues at least.

Because it is quite different in League Two, where this season is on course to be the lowest scoring in the past ten years, and draws here on course to be the second highest.  Here it's the home team struggling to score. The five season average per game is 1.45, but this season it's a paltry 1.28.

In the Championship, the goals are right on the 10 year average, but League One is up 0.3 goals per game on last season, and above both the five and ten year averages.

I may look at the Conference South next, focusing on matches played in the second half of the season only on Saturdays and only if the wind is blowing north at a rate of 4 knots and two players are wearing red socks.

1 comment:

Graeme Dand said...

Lucky I’m not a sensitive chap or I’d be worried you were having a go at me mate. First the Sultan, now poor little me. :(

Joking aside, I do think underlying trends in the short-term is something people overlook. If there were no draws in the Premiership this season, I couldn’t see you hitting too many XX draws. I haven’t tended to look at underlying trends (all levels out over a season I used to think) but it helps to explain why certain trends occur in the short-term.

Of course, any good set of systems can overcome any trends over a large sample of bets (just look at TFA systems :) ) but in the short-term, anything can happen I think.

Unfortunately, the short-term is what people tend to concentrate on too often I suspect.

Nice post!