Thursday, 27 February 2014

Suns Fail To Shine

I hope some of you made some money from yesterday's lay recommendation of the Phoenix Suns. At the time of writing, the Suns were in the low 1.8s, but from the chart below (taken at tip-off)... can see two big moves. One was obviously triggered when I highlighted in my post Phoenix's first quarter struggles of late and sharp minds followed me in and moved the market, and the second move was when it was revealed that the Dragon, Goran Dragic, would be missing with a sprained ankle.

I jest about the reason for the first drift, (it was likely because insiders became aware of the injury), but the drifts do highlight the dangers of betting too early on a sport where team news can move a market hugely.

On this occasion the news was in our favour, and with Utah Jazz winning the first quarter as expected (by 3) you could have traded out of that 1.85 lay by backing at 2.88. Or you could have let the lay run (not unreasonable given the Suns short-handedness), and enjoyed an easy win.

The Suns led for a total of three seconds early in the second quarter, but in the end Utah (receiving 1.5 on the handicap) just about covered, winning by 23 points.

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