Saturday, 8 February 2014

Missing Draws

A comment by Graeme got me thinking. His full comment was this:

Lucky I’m not a sensitive chap or I’d be worried you were having a go at me mate. First the Sultan, now poor little me. :(
Joking aside, I do think underlying trends in the short-term is something people overlook. If there were no draws in the Premiership this season, I couldn’t see you hitting too many XX draws. I haven’t tended to look at underlying trends (all levels out over a season I used to think) but it helps to explain why certain trends occur in the short-term.

Of course, any good set of systems can overcome any trends over a large sample of bets (just look at TFA systems :) ) but in the short-term, anything can happen I think.
Unfortunately, the short-term is what people tend to concentrate on too often I suspect.

Nice post!
but the part that got me thinking was the "if there were no draws in the Premiership this season, I couldn’t see you hitting too many XX draws".

Graeme has a point of course, and the draws across the Big Five leagues are all down on their 'historic' (last ten years) averages, and all but Serie A (and there only by a slither) are also down on their five year averages. With the increase in goals I mentioned in my Goal Watching post, a decline in draws is to be expected. Not a problem, if the draw price has moved out as well, and at first sight, at least in the EPL, this appears to be true. In 2003-04, the average draw price was 3.436 (Implied Probability 29.1%, Actual was 28.4% [3.52]) while so far this season the average draw price is 3.92 (Implied Probability 25.5%, Actual is 22.9% [4.37]).  A bookies edge of 2.4% is, despite the higher prices on offer, currently an edge of 11.5%.

If we look at the matches where the home team is not odds-on, the averages are 3.24 and 3.46, and blindly backing them would have generated profits of 2.235 and losses of 6.53 respectively in these two seasons.

It will be interesting to review these numbers at the end of the season. Personally, I'm hoping for a drop off in goals, and the consequent increase in draws, but we shall see.

Also interesting to me is that the away team is having their best seasons since at least 2003 in the EPL and La Liga, with over 31% currently winning in England and over 32% in Spain. Away winners are not what Matt at Football Elite is looking for, but any tipster laying the draw and backing Aways in the EPL and La Liga must be coining it in!


Anonymous said...

Hi Cassini,
what do you think would be possible starting with a £200bank pre trading horse racing? is it to little a bank to start with am i better off building a bigger bank. Seems like long hours for a little profit cheers

Anonymous said...

Hi Cassini

Based on the figures you have come up with and the previous post on numbers of goals etc is it likely the xx draws is going to return negative longterm results. Joined up recently as I was looking for an edge in my betting but the posts I mentioned don't fill me with confidence.