Thursday, 1 September 2022

Oysters Are Back

August is done and for me at least, it's a case of good riddance. I enjoyed the family holiday time, but from a financial perspective, the month was the worst ever. 

More on that later, since most of you are more interested in sports betting than in my retirement.

The 2022-23 English Premier League season got underway, and for "Close/Toss-Up" draws August is historically the best month with an ROI of 27% since 2000. 

This season's results boosted that ROI to 28% with three winners from seven:
There were also a couple of matches this week that fell just outside the "Close" range but finished as Draws. These were West Ham v Tottenham (30.7%) and AFC Bournemouth v Wolves (31.7%) but since 2000, these haven't been a good investment overall, although in games where a Little 14 team is home to a Big 6 side the jury is out. 

August is historically the best month for 'hot favourites' in MLB, but not this year. Whether this is due to the rule changes previously mentioned here remains to be seen, but with a month to go, we're looking at a losing season with the ROI currently at -3.8%:
I did see this baseball betting 'tip' on Twitter:
This is very poor advice. 

With almost 19 seasons of data, blindly backing the Los Angeles Dodgers when favourite has a positive ROI from more than 2200 matches. 

If the 'tip' had specified 'Away / Road favourites' it would have had some merit (the Yankees are actually the worst team to back in this situation), but at home, these two clubs are actually the best of the 30 clubs to back when favourites.

Presumably the rationale for this suggestion was that being popular teams, the Yankees and Dodgers are typically over-bet, but the data doesn't support this. Validating your ideas is always a good idea. 

College (NCAA) Football is back as of last weekend, and with the NFL is just a week away with a Thursday Night game, it's a sure sign that Autumn is here. 

For the first time since June 2016, my overall year-on-year return is negative, and with September traditionally the worst month for stocks, things could yet get worse.

Tesla had a 3 for 1 stock split, but dropped more than 7% in the month, and overall my net worth dropped 5.6%, the 138th worst month in percentage terms of the 140 since I started tracking with, not surprisingly, August 2022 ranked dead last in real terms. 

The drawdown from April's high is 12.2%, not far short of the 14.1% I experienced during the March 2020 COVID-19 panic. 

The good news, I suppose, is that I am still employed. The bad news is that I might have to remain so for some time if I want to go out on a high, which would be psychologically optimal.

August was also a red month on the scales, but with my net daily calories averaging over 1900, this was no surprise and the damage wasn't terrible. Hard to lose weight when grandkids are eating ice cream and wanting to eat out most days! 

For anyone wondering about the post title, with the advent of September, adherents to the traditional advice recommending abstaining from oysters unless the month has an 'R' in its name will be aware that today is the first of 242 days in which the delicacy may be enjoyed. 

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