Thursday, 15 September 2022

Dodgers Coasting

The past weekend was, like the curate's egg, good in parts. With no EPL games, the focus for many readers was probably American Football and the opening weekend of the NFL.

First there was Week 2 of College Football where the Small Road 'Dog selections went 3-1, with two winning Straight Up, and taking the record for the season so far to 5-2. 

Week 1 of the NFL wasn't so great with only one of four selections covering the spread. Given that Week 1 is historically the worst of the season, and by some distance, I could possibly have recommended sitting this week out, but two of the games were Division matchups and the Week 1 record on these isn't terrible. 

While subscribers to the "Sacred Manuscript" might be cursing me for a rather poor start to the NFL season, I hope my timing in updating the document to include a couple of Bundesliga Systems this weekend more than made up for it. 

We hit 8 winners from 11 bets and an 8.69 unit profit to level stakes, and it was also a good weekend in the MLB with all six selections winning. The Los Angeles Dodgers have become the first team to reach the playoffs, and its likely that once home field advantage is secured, they will ease up a little and start resting players. 

As good as the Dodgers have been this season, actually for a few seasons winning their Division 9 times in the last 10 seasons, they have underperformed when 'hot favourites', although depending on how you define 'hot' favourites, this isn't an issue for just the Dodgers this year: 
-400 is 1.25 in European Odds and if there was no overround the implied win probability would be 80%. 

Teams starting at this short a price used to be a rarity in baseball with just three between 2005 and 2015, but in 2016 that started to change, albeit slowly. 

There was one match in 2016, three in 2017 and four in 2018 before the floodgates opened in 2019 with 19. All-time (going back to 2004) backing favourites at these odds would have lost you 7.9%

This season, (see left), and if you're thinking of backing at 1.3 or shorter, stay away from Southern California seems to be the rule with six losses from six although a little strange, given their record, that the Dodgers haven't been huge favourites since May.

Overall, backing the Dodgers when favourites this season - i.e. in all but four games - has an ROI of 4.9% on the Money Line and an amazing 18.7% on the Run Line.

They did lose last night in extra innings though, and the foot may be off the gas until the playoffs.

Week 2 of the NFL starts tonight, with the Los Angeles Chargers playing a Divisional game in Kansas City against the Chiefs.  

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