Monday, 19 September 2022

Podcasts, Drinking, Dolphins and Augsburg

I mentioned a few podcasts a couple of weeks ago and Nfletch added one to the list that is worth mentioning:

Risk of Ruin is a great one. Not purely betting but great interviews from people with long careers in investing/gambling/betting space.
This is another excellent recommendation. The format makes it a pleasure to listen to, with no one talking over anyone else, and a bonus was the episode featuring an interview with Andrew 'Bert' Black who came up with the Exchange concept that turned into Betfair and which ultimately impacted my life quite significantly in a positive way. The topic of the Premium Charge was also raised at the end, which I thought was interesting.

Unfortunately, there is a small downside to all these excellent suggestions, which is that because I typically listen to them while out for my daily walk, when something comes up that is of particular interest, I have to make a mental note to listen to the episode again when I'm at home and in front of the computer.

I like to do a longer walk at the weekend, and on Saturday covered 13+ miles while mostly listening to the two suggestions below from a 'Sacred Manuscript' subscriber who wrote:
Thanks for adding these Bundesliga systems. Hopefully you’ve got some more little nuggets up your sleeve to add to the Sacred Manuscript 😀

If you haven’t already heard them I think you will really enjoy the following 2 podcasts with Ed Thorpe. Absolutely amazing how sharp this man is at 89 years young.
They were both very interesting episodes, and hopefully there will be more with Ed Thorpe to come. I do like Tim Ferriss, but hadn't listened to him in a while. 

A couple of comments on the second episode related to a topic close to my heart.

Ed isn't a big drinker, and mentioned that he only started drinking (a little) beer a few years ago following a visit to the Guinness Storehouse in Dublin. He now drinks half a beer two or three times a week, which is a little less than myself and probably the main reason why he is his ideal weight and I am not.

The impact of drinking to my weight is quite clear. One of Ed Thorpe's rules when addressing any problem is to collect data, which in this case involves weighing yourself daily, and this is something I do except when I'm away from home, in which case I backfit the weight gain (and it is always a gain) over the period I've been away.

The data isn't perfect, but on the left is how my weight over the past three years has fluctuated following a dry day compared to a drinking day.

If I don't have a drink, on average I will lose almost 0.4lbs a day, which doesn't sound like much, but it adds up quickly over time.

After a drinking day, weight the next day tends to be unreliable, I suspect due to dehydration, but looking at the weight two days on and there's a linear increase in weight gain depending on the massiveness of the session. 

Any drinking at all, and I'll gain almost 0.5lbs a day, and if it's a bit of a party, the gain will be a little over 0.8lbs a day.

I hasten to add that my drinking is purely social and not a problem in any way. I very rarely drink at home since my wife isn't much of a drinker after growing up around alcoholism, but I do enjoy going out and meeting friends - and strangers for that matter - and enjoying a social drink or two or whatever. And it's almost always beer although the occasional Moscow Mule or glass of port goes down nicely too.

Anyway, moving on to sports betting and Week 2 was a much better NFL weekend than opening week, with all three selections covering, and two winning outright taking the season record to 4-3. 

The Miami Dolphins were trailing by 21 points (14-35) going into the fourth quarter, and it was looking like they would need a lot more than the 3.5 they were getting to cover, but they won the last quarter by 25 points to not only cover but also to win at 2.49 on Pinnacle. 

The Arizona Cardinals won in overtime (3.06 on Pinnacle) after trailing by a mere 20 points at half-time, while the Los Angeles Chargers covered in their game at the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

No luck for the EPL Draws where we had two selections this weekend. For the second match in a row, Nottingham Forest lost 2:3 at home to a promoted club, while one goal was enough for Everton to beat West ham United. The ROI on these this season is now just 1.5%

In Germany, the Bundesliga Systems made us 5.21 units, with Bayern Munich's second consecutive failure to win at odds-on a big part of that. Going against Bayern Munich when odds-on away from home is historically not a good plan, but in the Pinnacle era (11 seasons), laying them when playing at Augsburg now has an 85% ROI.

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