Tuesday, 20 September 2022

Big Line, Low Total

College Football isn't everyone's cup of tea, and unless you have access to the US sportsbooks, it can be hit or miss as to whether games are available, but there was an interesting Tweet on Friday:

While a sample size of 23 is very small, a system with just two losses, and just one loss in more than 16 years, does pique ones interest. It's not a new idea, with Sports Insights in 2015 publishing an article explaining that:
The basic philosophy was that low-scoring games would have a more narrow range of potential outcomes, and this would disproportionately benefit the team getting points.
Iowa were playing Nevada, and I was slightly tempted to place a small bet on Nevada to cover the 24 point spread, but fortunately didn't because Iowa won by 27-0, and there are now two 'L's at the end of that sequence.

If you're interested in this idea, there's a Thursday night game coming up with the Chattanooga Mocs visiting the Illinois Fighting Illini on Thursday night and getting 19.5 points in a game where the total is currently just 37 points.

The two key numbers in the Tweet (+17 points and 40 total) are extremely rare in the NFL, where there have only been two such games since 1989, although both were winners for the 'dog. Just teams getting more than 17 points in the more competitive NFL is a rarity, happening just 25 times in over 8400 matches. Teams getting more than 14 points with a total set below 42 has a 41-19-1 record but again, not many selections given this covers 33 seasons. 

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