What A Difference A Day Makes

I made a little over £5,000 yesterday in the Stock Market and just shrugged my shoulders nonchalantly while telling myself it'll disappear again. I don't handle my sporting investment wins quite so casually I've noticed. A win of that level and I'm orgiastic (what a great word that is) for hours...

Stock Market

I lost a little over £5,000 yesterday in the Stock Market and just shrugged my shoulders nonchalantly while telling myself it'll come back. I don't handle my sporting investment losses quite so casually I've noticed. A loss of that level and I'm discombobulated (what a great word that is) for hours. Nevertheless, with no end to the bear market in sight, and my house dropping in value by the day, it does all get a little annoying, if not depressing. But I'm in for the long run and it's not always a smooth ride. Guess I won't be retiring this week.

On the Betfair front, still total confusion surrounding the Premium Charge. Some people on the forum seem convinced that the £1,000 applies to profits starting from the week of 22/9, but I have to say that I am quite sure they are wrong - it is an allowance to offset against the previous 60 weeks of profit, which isn't going to help me too much to be quite honest.

Betfair Premium Charge - Guardian Article

Betfair Stand Firm On New Charges
September 16 by Greg Wood

Betfair, the internet's dominant betting exchange, yesterday denied a report that it is preparing to scrap a controversial new charge to be paid by its most consistently successful clients.

"Contrary to reports, there was no crisis board meeting today," Tony Calvin, a Betfair spokesman, said, "nor was one ever planned."

However, the firm refused to offer any further comment on the charge, or the precise reasons why it has been introduced. A question-and-answer session conducted on the forum section of its website last week remains Betfair's only public comment on the new charge.

The premium charge, which will be levied for the first time later this month, will target clients who are winning significant sums annually while paying relatively little commission to the exchange. Betfair insists this will be an average of 600 clients per week, while about 2,000 can expect to pay the charge at some point each year.

In particular, this will affect clients who "trade" positions - that is, both backing and laying to guarantee a profit in a particular market - but could also snare some backers who have an exceptionally good strike-rate with their bets.

While suggestions of a "crisis meeting" appear to be wide of the mark, the announcement of the premium charge has been widely seen as a PR debacle for the exchange, not least because it has made so little attempt to explain its reasoning.

Betfair's competitors, including traditional bookies and its much smaller rivals in the exchange market, have also been quick to take advantage, with promises that they will not levy any unexpected taxes on winnings. The new charge has fuelled speculation that the business is being fattened up for a float, which would allow Betfair's founders to cash in shares worth many millions.

Another possibility, though, is that Betfair is concerned that a small number of its customers are making so much money from the exchange that the situation is unsustainable and they will, at some stage, effectively run out of losers.

On this basis, the premium charge can be seen as the price that consistent winners must pay for an ongoing supply of losers, though if this is the case, a clear statement of the fact is unlikely to do much to attract new business.

Promising News from the Daily Mail

Betfair in talks as punters look elsewhere

Betting exchange Betfair are holding a crisis board meeting today to debate their unbelievably rash decision a week ago to charge high-rolling clients a 20 per cent commission on their winnings. This stealth tax has seen a sudden migration of punters from Betfair to rivals Betdaq, who report one of their busiest weeks ever.

First Foray on BETDAQ

Having opened and funded by BETDAQ account, I have placed my first bets with them on the American Football today, where slightly better prices were available on the Denver Broncos - San Diego Chargers game. I rather ridiculously always see it as something of an omen if the first bet with a new account or new system wins, so my BETDAQ future is in the hands of the Chargers who surely cannot be as woeful as they were last week.

NFL is one of my favourite trading sports. The prices are constantly moving, and constantly overreacting. Whether I shall trade this in-running on BETDAQ or on Betfair remains to be seen.

Random Premium Charge Generator

Here is an example of how the Premium Charge can vary unfairly, taken from a letter to Betfair:

Sir/Madam,

With regard to the new Premium Charge, I would be grateful if you would please review the scenario below and let me have your comments on it. I may well be misunderstanding something (your logic is not exactly straight forward in the way that a flat 5% is).

I have two bets between Monday and Sunday, and I am already nicely in profit for the 60 weeks, and have played in enough markets to be eligible for the Premium Charge.

Bet A - I win gross £2,000, pay 5% commission (of £100) and net £1,900.

Bet B - I lose £1,000 to one of your customers who is on 2% commission who nets £980. My Commssion Generated for the week is therefore (£100+£20) / 2 = £60. Premium Charge applied is £140 (£1,000 gross profit * 20%, minus the £60 Commission Generated). So my total commission for the week is £100 + £140 = £240.

Bet C - I lose £1,000 to one of your customers who is on 5% commission who nets £950. My Commssion Generated for the week is therefore (£100+£50) / 2 = £75. Premium Charge applied is £125 (£1,000 gross profit * 20%, minus the £75 Commission Generated). So my total commission for the week is £100 + £125 = £225.

As I do not have a choice of who my bet is matched with (and indeed it could be matched with any number of people all on different commission rates) how is this formula fair?

Why should the amount I am charged vary? I cannot see how this pricing policy is fair? Customers should always know before making a transaction what their charges are going to be.

How am I able to verify that any charges are in fact accurate?

There is a disturbing lack of transparency to the way this Premium Charge is calculated.

I do hope that someone will be able to explain this to me, because right now I am very confused.

Guess The Amount!

So here's yet another thing. I received a reply from Betfair today in response to my question on how I am supposed to work out what the charge will be and verify it, and it raises yet another issue. The Implied Commission they calculate on my losing bets will vary depending on the commission rate of the person (or persons) with whom I am matched!

I could be matched with 100 people. How the heck are they going to work out what rate I am to be credited with Implied Commission at?

Here's the text in full: "We calculate the Premium charge on your Commission Generated. Commission generated includes the commission paid on winnings, but also the commission that Betfair makes from the other customers who win in markets in which you've lost, which we call ‘implied commission’. When you win, Betfair collects commission at your rate of commission, but when you lose, the commission collected by Betfair from the winners is at their rate. So we'll determine the commission generated by your betting activity to be: Commission generated (Commission + Implied commission) divided by two. Implied commission is calculated on the Market losses x Average market commission rate."

It's rather like shopping at Tescos - you know the price when you pull an item off the shelf, and you know there will be an extra charge, but that charge all depends on which checkout you go to, because some checkout girls (or boys) earn more than others because they are better at their jobs and therefore you pay more for the convenience of checking out with them. The final total of your shopping bill will be visible in a few days when you get your credit card statement. All you can do before then is make a best guess based on the average cost of your shopping over the past 60 weeks. All clear?

Any legal boys ever read this? Is this practice even allowed? I would seriously be very surprised if this random element of who you are matched with affecting your charge is lawful. It just goes from bad to worse.

Implied Commission

So here’s the thing. At the end of a profitable week, we not unreasonably want to know where we stand with regard to the Premium Charge.

To calculate what this charge will be, we need to know our Commssion Generated total, which as I understand it, is half of our Commission Paid + Implied Commission.

However, we have no way of precisely knowing our Implied Commission. The best we can do is approximate this sum by going through all our losing bets, but for an active trader, this is not an insignificant effort.

Our Account Statement shows Commission Paid on our winning bets, but does not show Implied Commission on our losing bets.

It does seem strange to me that this charging method would be legal. Can anyone name another financial transaction that you would commit to without knowing what your fees, taxes, charges, commission etc. would be? I can’t. I buy stocks or commodities and I know what my charges will be.

I’m not suggesting that Betfair would make up these numbers, but there is a certain lack of transparency here that, quite frankly, stinks.

Comments on Betfair's Premium Charge

As some of you may have noticed, I am still a little upset about this new Premium Charge that Betfair are introducing. I have opened and re-activated accounts with BETDAQ and WBX respectively, and will be closely monitoring both those sites. I enjoy, and make my profits, in the markets that are relatively volatile - sports like cricket, baseball, basketball and American football. Whether the liquidity will be there or not remains to be seen, but I am more hopeful now than ever that at last there could be a serious challenge to Betfair's position as market leader.

Representatives at both WBX and BETDAQ expressed their delight and surprise at this change in fortune and this could be a very costly own goal by the executives at Betfair.

Rumours are spreading that Betfair may be in some financial trouble. I personally doubt it, but if they are, it is because they have spent too much money on unpopular products - games I have never heard of for example. Get back to being an exchange, match backers and layers, take your (fair) commission and leave it at that.

Independent Article on Betfair Premium Charge

Betfair faces criticism for massive rise in charges
By John Cobb Wednesday, 10 September 2008

Betfair, the betting exchange which holds a dominant position in the market, has dismayed its customers and delighted its rivals by hiking charges for the most successful punters from around five per cent to 20 per cent.

The firm was quick to point out yesterday that the new "Premium" charges will affect fewer than 0.5 per cent of its customers, but the bombardment of the firm's online betting forum by punters reflected a more widespread anger at the rise.

The charges will affect the growing numbers for whom trading on betting exchange markets has become a full-time occupation, but those who aspire to that position are equally dismayed.

"Customers who traded with us today, some after an absence, were concerned that the next change might affect them," said Iain Turner of WBX, who along with Betdaq are the rivals most likely to benefit from the departure of customers from Betfair.

In particular, it is the highly active customers who provide liquidity by seeding the market who would be most missed by Betfair and greeted warmly by their rivals.

According to Betfair, "more than 98 per cent of winning customers would not have been charged" if the rate had been in place over the past year. It is to host a question and answer session on its forum tonight and can expect to come under fierce fire.

Guardian Article on Betfair Premium Charge

Betfair - where winners have just become losers by Greg Wood

Betfair retain a public image as a pioneering start-up, but customers' loyalty may be tested by their new "premium charges"

September 9, 2008 12:01 AM

The life story of the Betfair betting exchange is relatively brief, but it has certainly packed a lot into its nine-year existence. From a tiny start-up, fired by the vision and genius of its two founders, Andrew Black and Edward Wray, it has grown into a billion-pound business, with hundreds of staff in plush riverside offices, customers in dozens of countries, and a Queen's Award for Enterprise nailed to the wall.

And amid all the staggering numbers, there is another, less tangible, achievement. Betfair is now one of the world's biggest betting businesses, yet it has always managed to retain a public image of the pioneering start-up, defying the corporate norms. Many of its clients still feel like members of a club, and have the same sort of regard for Betfair that Apple-fanatics do for their Macs. This has always helped to keep them "sticky", and allowed Betfair to defend its near-monopoly.

The loyalty of some customers may be tested to the limit, however, by Betfair's decision, announced yesterday, to introduce "premium charges" for some of their biggest winners. Betfair insists that the new charges will affect "less than 0.5%" of its customers, but still seems to stand in complete contradiction to the company's oft-repeated boast that this is a place "where winners are welcome".

The charges, and the conditions under which these will be incurred, are explained in a 1,200-word posting on the Betfair website. The rules are, clearly, quite complicated, but plenty of their customers are starting to consider the implications. One Betfair client who contacted the Guardian yesterday said that if the charges had been imposed over the last few weeks, he would have been forced to pay "a five-figure sum".

"They think they can do it because they have an effective monopoly. I look forward to their next advertising campaign. Instead of 'where winners are welcome', they can say, 'come to Betfair, where winners get screwed'," he added.

At least one of Betfair's winners, though, took a different view. "It's the best news I've had for ages, as it's not going to cost me a penny," Harry Findlay, professional punter and owner of Denman, said. "I'm a gambler, so the way I bet, it won't make a difference. The people who will be screaming will be the maths professors with computer models, the ones who just never lose. If they clear off, it should be even easier for me to make money."

Even so, Findlay could still appreciate a basic problem with Betfair's move. "I'm in favour for selfish reasons," he said, "but when I first heard about it, I thought it must be a joke, as it's so completely against the ethos of the whole company." Betfair's enemies in the racing establishment may also be interested in the news. After all, if Betfair itself can cream off an extra charge from people who must, in effect, be running a business on the exchange, why can't the Levy Board do it too?

Betfair was started by punters, for punters, and has transformed the betting landscape in less than a decade. Yesterday's news, though, could mark the moment when it stopped being a plucky start-up, and turned into just another faceless corporation.

Commission Generated Question

Despite (apparently) being in the top 0.5% of Betfair's customers, I guess I am sometimes a little slow. When I first read about this new Premium Charge I assumed that if I had a gross profit of £1,000 in a week, and I'd already paid £75 in commission, then the Premium Charge would be £125 making my total commission £200, or 20%.

But this is not so - Betfair use the 'Commission Generated' to calculate what I will pay, not Commission Paid, so how the heck do I work out what my Commission Generated total is?

I guess I shall be making another call to find out how I can work out this number. I hate the idea of not knowing just exactly what hit I am going to take each Wednesday, and it certainly wouldn't be right to charge me a fee that I have no way of verifying is correct.

Betfair Premium Charge - Racing Post Article

Betfair bosses deny being ‘too greedy' by Paul Eacott

Senior management at Betfair denied accusations on Wednesday evening that they were being “too greedy” by introducing a premium charge on their most successful clients. News that the dominant betting exchange were set to bring in a new charging formula, which will result in certain holders of accounts in profit over a 60-week period paying a minimum 20 per cent commission, was greeted angrily by dozens of the exchange's users after it was announced late on Monday.

While Betfair were unwilling to make any public comment on Wednesday, chief executive David Yu, Mathias Entenmann, managing director for the UK and Ireland, corporate affairs managing director Mark Davies, and Tony Clare, head of strategic initiatives, took part in an hour-long question-and-answer session on the exchange's forum on Wednesday.

A number of contributors to the thread were vociferous in their opposition. In response to the accusation that the new charges are driven by greed, the four-man panel responded: “We don't think so. “We balance the demands of all stakeholders in the business: customers, employees, shareholders and industries which derive a percentage of our profit, like the racing industry.

“Our profit margins are not excessive and our profits are a fraction of those of other large gambling companies.” Betfair again reiterated “the likelihood of a ‘normal' sports punter qualifying for this charge is close to zero – even if he or she has a very positive ratio of wins versus losses”.

They added that the levy, to which Betfair's contributions have been a bone of contention with other bookmakers and industry factions, is set to benefit from the new charge, with the racing industry getting ten per cent “before we take any of the money from the premium charge and do anything with it”.

Although no figures are available as to how many of Betfair's customers will be subject to the new charge, with the exchange claiming to have up to 500,000 active users, it is not expected to exceed 2,500 account holders.

News of the changes to the commission system was poorly received by management and customers at the Elitebet Trading Centre in Highgate, London, some of whom anticipate being out of pocket when the premium charge is introduced on September 22.

In-running manager Ming Wong said: “The implied commission system – introduced without precedent and backdated 60 weeks – suddenly introduces a previously unmentioned element into the equation for calculating commission paid. “For every winning punter, the very nature of implied commission means they will not even be given credit for the commission they have actually paid.

On most accounts affected, this mathematical sleight of hand will cost thousands over the course of a year. “The idea that this change affects only traders and those who use bots is a fallacy. It affects virtually every in-running player who makes a consistent profit, and a significant number of pre-race players.

“Betfair appear to be dictating to its customers what sort of ‘winning' punters they want. Rollercoaster punters who turn over fortunes in a frenzy and make a tiny return on investment are welcome. More considered punters who lower their risk are targeted directly by this charge. This separation is completely against the ethos of Betfair.”

One of Elitebet shop's customers, who wished to remain anonymous, added: “The calculations are fundamentally flawed and the only resolution I can see is a mass exodus of clients to another betting exchange. It is yet another example of a company monopolising the market and being overwhelmed with greed and the desire for yet more profit. “Monday was a dark day for Betfair and the betting industry as a whole.”

Rival exchange WBX on Wednesday reported a “high sign-up and enquiry rate” following Betfair's announcement. Public relations manager Iain Turner said: “At WBX we understand that if you are lucky enough to hit a winning streak you don't want to be punished by paying even more commission.”

Betfair Premium Tax

More thinking today about Betfair's Premium Charge. It occurred to me that if my bank was to send me a letter informing me of a new charge that would be based on my average balance over the past 60 weeks, then I would consider that most unethical. I'm sure that had most of us known about this change we would have traded or bet with other exchanges / bookmakers and been prepared. Now I am to be penalised because of a strong past 60 weeks. It has been suggested that this may even be illegal, though I doubt that a company the size of Betfair would make a mistake like that.

A couple of other thoughts. The £1,000 allowance over 60 weeks works out at £16.66 per week. £2.38 a day. To anyone who is a serious investor/gambler on here, that really is worthless. Similarly the 250 markets. I am sometimes active in over 100 markets a week. What good is an allowance of 250 markets?

It seems obvious that Betfair are trying to limit their customers to losers and occasional winners. In other words, they are moving away from the Exchange model towards a more traditional bookmaker. A typical exchange makes their money from commission, and doesn't differentiate between big winners, small winners or losers. Buy stocks or commodities, and you pay commssion at the time of the trade - not up to 10 days later depending on how your investment fared! Perhaps Betfair think they can best grow their business this way. Maybe so, but the genie is out of the bottle, and the new generation of punters rather likes the Exchange model and the idea will not wither and die even if Betfair does.

In the long-term, the gap will be filled by another Exchange who will hopefully learn that you need winners to draw in the losers. In fact, when I first opened my account and lost 80% of my bank over 18 months, I was within a whisker of giving it all up, but it was reading the forum and stories of people like Troy McClure that motivated me to learn and to master trading. (I remember reading an article about Troy in, I believe, a Betfair online publication - funny how they don't want people like him any more!)

In the short-term, it appears that BETDAQ is already seeing a big increase in turnover with the Yorkshire v Warwickshire cricket match yesterday seeing a higher total matched on the Purple site than on Betfair. Given that for many people there has not been enough time to transfer funds over, and open accounts, this is very encouraging news. Come 22nd September, and perhaps that tipping point we hear about in business will have been reached, and there will be a new market leader.

And Betfair will dry up quicker than their 'not so sharp-minded' executives could ever have imagined.

BETDAQ v Betfair

BETDAQ have replied to my e-mail requesting details of their commission and offered a flat 2% until 2009. No word on what happens after that, but I am going to pull out some funds from Betfair and take advantage of this offer. 

They did also express surprise at Betfair's move, which I'm sure met with some disbelief from BETDAQ's executives. They must be rubbing their hands in glee at this change in fortune.

I have written to Betfair to complain about this swingeing tax, but I doubt that I shall receive a personal reply.

Should an Exchange even care who the winners are? Just a thought. Personally I'm fine with the winners paying all the commission, but 20% is just wrong. 5% seemed fair and reasonable.

I did also point out that there is currently no credit given for the balance I keep, which typically is between £15k and £30k. Very disappointing.

Oh Dear, Betfair

A rather disturbing message today awaited me today when I signed on to my Betfair account.

Whilst, in a way, it is nice to know that I am in the top 0.5% of customers, the news that winners like myself will soon have to pay 20% commission is not such good news. Not by a long way.

I understand that other exchanges, notably BETDAQ are aware that a number of bigger bettors may be headed their way, and this is an option I will need to look into. Betfair had a huge advantage as first mover in this area, but once the door opens to another competitor, they could suddenly find themselves left high and dry.

There's not much benefit to getting better prices and then paying a 20% tax on any winnings. A big own goal from Betfair I feel.

The full text of the letter:

Personal Message
Changes to Betfair’s Terms and Conditions Dear customer, We will shortly be making changes to our terms and conditions that will come into effect 22nd September 2008. From this date we will be introducing a new charging mechanism (Premium Charge) that will affect a small number of our most successful customers. We are writing to inform you that had the new charges been in place over the last 6 months then you would, at some point, have been required to pay Premium Charges. If your betting in the future continues to be as successful as it has been in the past then you could be required to pay Premium Charges in line with others who, like you, fall into the top 0.5% of our customers. The changes to our terms and conditions and full details of the new charge can be found here . Any questions that you may have in relation to the new charge should be directed to premiumcharge@betfair.com. Please tick this box to accept the changes to our terms and conditions. The Betfair Management Team.

I hope that Betfair will realise this is not a good move. If an alternative is not here today, then there will be one along tomorrow.

Update: It's worse than I thought. Over the last 60 weeks my profits total a little over £52k, and assuming I have paid commission of £2.6k at 5% , then the new tax will cost me about £7.8k. That is a lot of money by any measure. Come on BETDAQ, get your act together.

NFL Starts Today

The NFL season gets under way today with 13 matches. The official kick-off was on Thursday night with one game but tonight is when it all gets going for real. Last season I did very nicely on this sport, laying teams that I thought had been backed too low, and there were a handful of 1.01s turned over.

My three picks of the day are Jacksonville Jaguars (1.7) @ Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals (1.8) @ San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks (2.163) @ Buffalo Bills. The Patriots and Chargers will also win, but at low prices (1.07 and 1.23 respectively).

It's A Funny Old World

Made a complete mess of the Federer - Djokovic game today, but a smile returned to face on reading a story about a woman who awoke just before 2am to find a man in her bedroom 'committing a sex act'. Nothing funny there, well, maybe, but the next part of the story amused me:

"The suspect then jumped into a trash bin, and other neighbors slammed the lid on him and kept him inside until police arrived".

Football (Mostly) £10 Quiz Time - Saturday Seven

No Premier League or Championship action today, and I stay clear of mismatches, so to help fill the day, here's a little quiz.

Note that 'League club' here can refer to an English or Scottish team. Here we go:

1. Who was the first Italian to be inducted into the English Football Hall of Fame?

2. What is the only League club whose full name doesn't contain any letters than can be coloured in?

3. Who are the only League club to be mentioned in the Bible?

4. Which country has the world's longest life expectancy at 83.5 years?

5. Of the 15 original entrants to the first FA Cup in 1871/72, only one survived to be a current League club - name it?

6. Who are the oldest professional football team in London?

7. In what year did the Queen last attend the FA Cup Final?

A tenner (via PayPal) to the first person to mail me all 7 correct answers.

In the event of any disputes, Signore Cassini's decision is final. In boca al lupo...

Competition Status: Closed - the winner was Sven - from Holland.

Mr Eko and Holte Ender

Cracking thread on the Betfair forum posted by Mr Eko. I don't get involved in markets which depend on people being in the know, but apparently Betfair had a market on the first managerial change of the season in the Premier League. Mr Eko kindly posts a thread titled "1.07 free money - even BBC are reporting it" in reference to the story that Kevin Keegan had left Newcastle. Of course, we all know now that he hasn't, at least not yet, and that particular market has been 'won' by Alan Curbishley. £254,682 traded between 1.04 and 1.14. Ouch.

Now I do have some sympathy for Mr Eko for putting his faith in the BBC, but the most ridiculous thing is how he refuses to hold his hands up and admit to a bad call and to losing all of £10, but claims to have got out at 1.06. I mean seriously. If you really consider a bet to be free money, (and free money is seldom that), then back it with a little more than a tenner! And don't make a complete arse of yourself by claiming to have got out when everyone knows you didn't.

Reminds me of Holte Ender's "Sussex v Lancashire - INPLAY TRADING LESSON" thread last week. After backing Lancashire at 2.3 (£100) and then "Back Lanc at 3's for £50", he went very quiet for a while before returning with the classic line "you should now be all green" - never mind that the price had never dropped to allow any greening out from his suggested bets. I think this guy likes attention - check out www.gubbed.com and type in "Holte Ender" and there are pages and pages of his nonsense.

I read the forum for entertainment, and some days it certainly provides a lot.

Premier League

Looking at the Premier League winner market for this season, I see Manchester City - who are currently trading at 60/65 - have been backed as low as 3 and as high as 990. That's quite a range, although the 3.0 was almost certainly an error and the true low is 40. Interesting days ahead I feel. Liverpool must be worried. Once they fall out of the Big Four and lose the Champions League income, it's a slippery slope. Forget that new stadium boys! See if you can negotiate a ground-share arrangement with Tranmere Rovers...

The real reason I'm looking at this market is because I'm seeing a big reaction these days anytime either Chelsea or Manchester United fail to win. I've not looked, but presumably this would be a way to circumvent the "SUSPENDED" any time one of these teams falls behind or loses a lead. Anyone try this?

Daily Targets

I have written before on here how it is my opinion that having daily targets is a bad idea. For one thing, value opportunities do not not come along with the same frequency. (Most sports have busy days and quiet days for example). Some days I do not find any value bets, and on other days I might find two in the space of two minutes. Quitting for the day upon reaching an arbitrary profit is senseless, and of course the other problem with setting a short term target is that you put pressure on yourself to meet that target, and thus try to find an opportunity that really is not value.

Having said that, I do suffer from a strong reluctance to record a negative profit on any single day, which is really just as bad. I record the results of every market by sport every day and I know I have taken bets at bad value simply to show a profit. I guess the solution is to just look at the bottom line every month, but it's a hard habit to break. I find it immensely annoying to have to record even the smallest of daily losses. My longest run of profitable days is 42, my longest run of losing days is 4 in April 2007.

So, this is the only target I have, as such. Other levels that I like to beat each day, but that I can honestly say do not factor into my decision making at all, are my 10 and 30 day moving averages, my one year moving average, my all-time average, and my current year average. I like to beat these because if I don't, it's no big deal but my charts take a dip and that is not pleasing to me. Obviously the 10 and 30 day averages are particularly volatile so the key ones for me are the 1 year moving average, and the all-time daily average.

I also enjoy beating the daily average income for full-time male employees (£71.15 per day) and females (£56.29). As I've said before, numbers are fun.

Marychain1 on Liverpool v Liege

A great post on the Betfair Forum today, following the Liverpool v Liege game (Liverpool won in extra-time after a goalless 90 minutes)

Enitled: "Thank you, you f*****s, cost me my bank"

"This is an absolute disgrace!!! How the f*** can that bunch of jokers not win against those amateurs??? What an absolute ******* joke!!!! I had my WHOLE BANK riding on them!!! How can they not even score one goal. I'm going f*****g mental here. If I was the chairman I'd be sacking the manager first thing in the morning after this, and half the players would be following him out the door. I was embarrassed watching it. If you ask me they have made the whole country a laughing stock drawing 0-0 with this shower of ****. They certainly wont be getting a warm welcome back in Liege if they can't even beat Liverpool."

Very entertaining, and caught a good number of people as well. Thanks for the laugh.

Football Favourite-Longshot Bias

Towards the end of the football 2007-08 season, I paper traded a laying system that I have been developing for 391 matches.

Although this was a limited sample, the selection criteria did show some interesting trends which indicated that in the matches I selected, there was a significant favourite-longshot bias. I'm not going to get too carried away, but I am going to continue monitoring these matches and will play with a small bank for added interest.

Statistically, the system had 277 winners from 391 selections (70.84%) and made a (pre-commission) profit of £47.44. There were two Longest Losing Sequences of 5, although since many matches take place at the same time, and in many cases the sequence is alphabetical, this may not be too relevant.

Early lay selections for today are Leeds United and Rushden and Diamonds.

10k Swimming

I can be such an idiot at times. Having traded like a demon in the Channel 5 Angels / Rays game tonight, I then invest, no - gamble, my profits on an Olympic event I know nothing about, just because we have a chance of yet another Gold Medal. Why do I do these stupid things? I must have learned enough lessons to write a small guide to what NOT to do on Betfair.

I did get a little luckier earlier when I really thought the price on a new 200m world record by Usain Bolt was too low, and backed "No World Record". Then my brain kicked in, and I figured it actually wasn't that unlikely and layed off to go Green-All-Over and lucky I did. A very impressive performance. That record and the 100m too will come down again if he stays healthy. Pretty cool runnings.

And I thought Jamaica was only good for the Bobsled...

Approach v System

Someone on the Betfair Forum recently posted something sensible. Yes, yes, I know, it hardly seems possible, but occasionally someone actually posts something that is worth reading. Apologies for forgetting whoever it was, (I didn’t note your name down but I will post a link to this entry in the hope that you will claim credit for the idea), but anyway, his comment was that to be successful on Betfair, it is the ‘approach’ that is important and not any ‘system’.

I agree with this statement absolutely. In fact, it’s my approach that I have been fine-tuning since joining Betfair, although I didn’t consciously think of it that way before.

I’m not saying that I don’t believe that ‘systems’ never work (they do if they always represent value), but the poster was spot on when he said that success or failure lies with the overall approach. Having been a Betfair investor for over four years now, I have five golden rules (mostly learned the hard-way) as to what attributes an ‘approach’ needs to have.

1. Software – never invest when you are tired, emotional or when you are euphemistically tired AND emotional. (Drinking and smart decision making have never gone together very well. How many of us would be here today if that were the case?)

2. Hardware – have reliable computer equipment and internet connection and a back-up. There is nothing more frustrating than being unable to exit a position due to a technical glitch.

3. Discipline – never be in a hurry to invest. Wait for an opportunity that looks like value, but never bet just for the sake of it. Some days there may be nothing to bet on. That’s ok, tomorrow there may be a hundred. For this reason I do not advocate having short-term goals. They sound fine in theory, but they put pressure on one to invest when one shouldn’t and vice-versa, to stop investing when one should be making hay. Also, and this should go without saying, never bet more than you are comfortable losing. The fact that a bet is good value is no guarantee that it will win. Expect the worst, understand that the bet was a good bet even if it lost, and look at the long-term picture.

4. Specialise – concentrate on what you’re good at. I have a number of sports and markets that I just can’t get ahead on so I just stay away from them and focus on those markets that I do understand and that make me money.

5. Records – keep accurate records. It is a well known trait of gamblers to remember (and inflate) the wins and forget the losses (ask a gambler how he’s done over the past year and the answer is usually “won a few, lost a few, slightly ahead overall”) but to see exactly what works and what doesn’t, it is essential that you keep track of your results. Numbers don’t lie. I have a spreadsheet dating back to 1/1/06 (one of the few New Year’s resolutions that I have actually kept for more than a week) and it allows me to plot fancy charts and calculate moving averages to my heart’s content.

Update: The poster who deserves the credit for inspiring this post has been identified and goes by the Forum Name of JPG.

Olympics, the US and John Cleese

So the Olympics doesn't open until Friday, but the games have begun (if you can call women's football a game). Just kidding ladies. When the last Olympics took place, I was a novice on Betfair, and aside from a teeny win on Water Polo one quiet Saturday, I don't recall getting involved very much. This year will probably be the same. Laying the USA men's basketball team at 1.36 could be good. Their NBA superstars often don't gel very well (as is the case in the Ryder Cup), and for other teams, they are the team to beat. Also other teams have a healthy starting line-up of NBA players themseves - Spain and Argentina to name but two.

Why is it that with the exception of basketball, the big sports in the US are games that hardly any other country plays? Reminds me of the old John Cleese joke (circa 1998), when asked by an American talk-show host what the difference were between the US and Britain:

"1. We speak English and you don't"

"2. In England, when we have a World Championship, we invite teams from other countries to take part"

"3. When WE meet our head of State, we only have to go down on ONE knee"

August Baseball

As some of you may have noticed, I pretty much took July off, but I am now back and raring to go with the new football season and the NFL just around the corner, but I start today with a look at baseball.

With the All-Star game behind us, the baseball season really starts to become meaningful. Probably the surprise team of the season is the Tampa Bay Rays who without the Devil in their name are giving the Red Sox and the Yankees a good run this year in the American League East. I expect the Rays to fade as they are currently exceeding their expected win/loss ratio (based on runs scored and runs conceded) by a few games and these things usually level out over a season. In the AL West, the ridiculously named Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are currently proving to be the best team in baseball, while in the Central Division there’s a tight race between the Twins and the White Sox.

In the National League, I am expecting to see the addition of Manny Ramirez help the Dodgers to overtake the Diamondbacks in the West, whilst in the East there’s a tight race between three contenders – the Phillies, Marlins and Mets with the Marlins my tip to fade away. In the Central Division the Cubs should be too strong for the Brewers and may well end the season as the best team overall in the MLB.

From an investment viewpoint, the beauty of baseball is that on any day, any team can beat any other. One swing of the bat can score four runs, or at the other extreme, can result in a triple play.

Simon Jordan

In the News of the World today there's an article about Crystal Palace chairman Simon Jordan and his opinions on football. As always, he is outspoken, but I do believe that much of what he says is the truth. Should players such as Ronaldo honour the contracts that they sign? Is any player worth £150,000 a week? “The reality is that football is a bullshit world - an insidious, insipid, egotistical, greedy, self-motivated game,” stormed Jordan.

Now I do have to declare upfront that Crystal Palace are, and always have been, my team. They were my local team when I was a lad, the first team I ever saw play live, and they were a big part of my life for many years. Not so much now. Like Jordan, I am somewhat disillusioned with the beautiful game, and pick and choose my games rather than blindly attend every game. Getting older and having responsibilities opens your eyes a little, but the comment I want to make here is that I believe football at the top level in this country is living in a bubble. How long can it be before supporters realise that they are being ripped off. Ticket prices are high, the cost of very average food and drink is excessive and once economic hardships start to hit home, football is one if the first luxury items that will go. And I don't think people will miss it nearly as much as they might think.

Football has changed in my years of watching it. As I wrote in a previous post, the days when any one of a dozen teams stood a chance of winning the league have gone. Winning is as boring as losing. The excitement in sport comes from the outcome being unknown. How exciting can it be for a Chelsea fan watching a home fixture against Hull City (and nothing against Hull City - they have done fantastically well in the last few years, and I wish them well) knowing that anything less than a solid win would be a disappointment?

And the Big Four are just going to get bigger. Read the latest transfer rumours to see what is happening. And the Big Four is really the Big Two and the Not Quite So Big Two. If Chelsea and Manchester United don't finish first and second in the Premier League, now what a shock that would be!

I for one am disillusioned with it all at the top level. Lucky for me that Palace aren't up there I guess, (I can enjoy seeing my team as a relatively big fish, but not so big as to make games irrelevant) but am I the only one who now takes far more interest in the non-League game than ever before?

Admittedly a lot of this is because from a betting standpoint there is far more value to be found non-league, but the leagues are competitive and games are fun to watch.

We are approaching a 'Tipping Point' and when we do reach it, the drift away from top-level football will be fast.

Simon Jordan speaks a lot of sense. The 'people's game' is not their game any more, and one day they will realise this. Football needs more people like Simon Jordan.

Brazilian Brush

I don't do the horses because as I have said previously, there is too much insider information in horse racing to which I am not privy, and I believe the sport is corrupt, so I stay away. Perhaps a good job tonight, because a commentator by the name of Mike Cattermole (ATR) called the wrong horse (Brazilian Brush) as the winner when it didn't even place, and someone (or someones I hope) had over £51k backing it at 1.01. And I believe the real winner traded for a small amount at 1000. Probably didn't seem a small amount to the layer.

Nostalgia Ain't What It Used To Be

There was a time, back in my youth, when any one of maybe ten teams had a realistic chance of winning Division One. The League Championship. By the time I reached 18, no fewer than 11 different clubs had won the title, and no team had won it more than 3 times. Indeed only once had the title been won back-to-back. [Quiz time, what year was I born?]

How different from today when the first 16 years of the Premier League have yielded just 4 different winners, with one team winning no fewer than 10 of them. Checking the prices for next season, and there are just four teams rated with a realistic chance of winning and there's no prizes for guessing the teams. Just a reality of the game today I realise, but I do think the old days were better. Sad that the best that 80% of the teams can aspire to next season is to challenge for fourth place.

Incidentally, if you're thinking of dabbling in this market, check around. I was a little surprised to see that odds better than those currently available on Betfair for next season's winner are currently available with BetFred (Chelsea at 3.25), VC Bet (Arsenal at 6.5 and Liverpool at 9). Man Utd are best priced on Betfair at 2.6.

Germany Value

Today sees the final of a very entertaining Euro 2008, with steady Germany playing a very impressive looking Spain. Germany's run reminds me of the way they un-inspiringly progressed to the 2002 World Cup Final only to lose to the better Brazil.

I think the same will happen today and Spain will triumph but having said that I think the value is in backing Germany with a view to laying the bet off at maybe half-time. Germany are available at 2.54 outright and I plan to lay this off at half-time if the game is tied or Germany are ahead. If Spain lead, then I shall await Germany to do what they seem to do quite often and manufacture a result when they are not the better team.

And although the under/over 2.5 goals market is off-limits to me today, I wouldn't discourage a bet on the unders with a view to laying it off after 15 minutes. These finals are usually low-scoring affairs. Usually.

PS: Thanks for all the comments on trading the under/over 2.5 goals market post. Good stuff.

In-Play Over/Under Futility

Graeme, who writes the very readable http://theexperiment-self-indulgentbullshit.blogspot.com/ blog, made a comment on my earlier “Pants Down” post that is worthy of a full post in reply.

“Why are you playing around on these under-over markets?”, he asked.

Well, that’s a very good question. Why am I? Boredom? Eternal optimism? I have played the over/under markets on and off pretty much from day one (March 2004) on Betfair. The appeal is that when you are on the unders, time is your friend and it’s nice to watch your position move into the money. Very nice and seductive. The problem is that it is not so nice when out of the blue comes a goal and just like that your small potential gain has turned into a potentially large loss.

The problem is finding the optimum market entry and exit points, but sadly, there is no hard and fast rule on this. Some games it pays to be on at the start, other games it pays to wait until a few minutes in, and other games it pays to not get involved with at all!

The exit point of course needs to be just prior to a goal is scored. Sounds easy enough…

After a loss, I quit playing these markets, and then one day there’s not much going on, and out of boredom I look at the football game that is currently in-play. Then I dip my toes in the water, splash around for a few minutes, exit the water making a few quid in a few minutes, and think to myself “That was easy”. And the cycle begins again. A few wins, then the one loss that wipes out the previous few weeks profits, and it’s back to square one.

I have had some success this season with making a reasonably large bet pre-game on matches I consider likely to end as unders, and then laying it off after 15 minutes. Last night’s Copa Libertadores final was the worst possible outcome, with not just one early goal, but two, and the bet was lost after 20 minutes or so. It finished at 4-2 but I had long since given up on it. I am still ahead on the season though, but more by luck than skill I suspect.

My thoughts right now are that the market is too efficient in these games, and that there is seldom an edge. Occasionally the market goes over-round so that you can lay the overs, then lay the unders for a profit, but the delay means that you are exposed for several seconds and the reward is miniscule.

Does anyone out there make these markets pay long-term?

I read a system which said to back the unders if the game was a draw at half-time, and leave it for 10 to 15 minutes. Sounds a bit like my backing pre-game and laying off after 15 minutes, but do any stats back up these ideas? I tend to think that everything is already factored into the price and any wins or losses are down to luck which is just gambling, and I am an investor, so no more in-play over/under betting.

I Can't Stand 'Loosing'

Why do so many people on the Betfair forum or indeed, in the Football Guerilla Betting System that I am currently reviewing (for free), not know how to LOSE?

E.g. “Take a break for awhile so you can get that loosing feeling out of your mind.” (from the afore mentioned Betting System which people are being asked to PAY for). What is a 'loosing' feeling?

The word is ‘losing’ – not ‘loosing’!

‘Lose’ means you didn’t win. You didn’t even get your money back. You lost!

‘Loose’ means not rigidly fastened or securely attached. Wobbly.

References: The Police: Can’t Stand Losing You, REM: Losing My Religion, Righteous Brothers: You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin'

http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/lose.html

Losing is bad enough as it is, without making it worse...

Pants Down

For two reasons. I got caught with them down in the final of the Copa Libertadores tonight when two goals in the first 8 minutes saw my pre-game back of the under 2.5 goals go down the pan to the tune of £900, a major dent in June's profits, (and when I tell her, June will not be at all happy), and secondly because I deserve a good arse kicking for putting my money on a bunch of long-haired, jewellery wearing macho men who can't defend and thank an invisible man in the sky every time they score. Yes, I'm a little peed off right now!

When will I learn? I think now is a good time. I lost money in the final last year, and just three weeks ago got (metaphorically) killed by a goal two minutes into stoppage time, so it is time to give up trading football in-play and stick with what I'm good at.

I have more luck with betting on football pre-game and letting it run, and am convinced that with discipline and patience and a solid selection system, the rewards are out there. My problem is that I get impatient, and jump in and out of markets when the game is on and after three years I think the message is that I do not have an edge, and I need to stop. Message received and understood.

Cold Hard Cash BS

I have just finished reading a (free) copy of the Cold Hard Cash (CHC) Betting System, first published in 2004, and what a pile of garbage it is. It consists of 28 pages of poorly written prose, the first 21 of which not only have nothing to do with the system, but are full of mistakes.

Anyone heard of the ‘Martindale’ staking system? Me neither, and that is by no means the only error contained within.

Anyway, the introduction is so painful to read that I can’t bring myself to spend any time on it at all, well, other than to generously point out that he warns readers to be wary of the scams and BS that are out there on the Internet… Oh the irony.

As for the system itself, it’s for football betting. Teams within a division are rated based on last season’s finishing positions from 100 for the bottom team in increments of 100 so that in say the Premier League the top team is rated 2,000.

Here is the meat of the system:

“As teams play each other they effectively bet 10% of their score/rating on the outcome of the game. E.g if Manchester United (score 2000) play Bolton (score 1200) Manchester would risk 200 on the outcome and Bolton 120. The winner of the match takes the 320 points. So if Bolton won their new score/rating would be 1520 and Manchester United would be reduced to 1800”.

“CHC looks for matches where there is at least a 1200 - point advantage to the home team. No matter how strong the advantage of the away team I do not bet on the away win. Partly because I know how I feel after a long car journey, my energy levels are low, I am tired and the last thing I want to do is run around. However, the main reason I don’t bet is, I believe this is always the best opportunity for the underdog to do a bit of giant killing. The home team is in familiar circumstances, the players have their wives, girlfriends, mistresses and family watching and they have thousands of fans cheering them on to vistory!”.

“Expect odds of around 1.5. Be suspicious of odds over 2.2. If the odds are below 1.3 consider using a betting exchange or placing the bet in a double..”

And that is basically it. Back short-priced home favourites! No mention of value at all. Back whether the selection is 1.01 or 2.18 I suppose. No mention of what happens to the ratings when a team draws. All in all a very poor effort. At least if you are going to sell a rubbish system, make it well-written and tart it up a little.

This is actually a simplified version of a system featured in an excellent book called “The Punter’s Revenge” written by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth which I purchased when it was first published back in 1986 just as home computers were becoming commonplace.

Based on the Elo rating system then used in Chess, the book suggested rating teams initially around an average of 1,000, and then adjusting them after each game with the home team ‘risking’ 7% of its rating, and the away team ‘risking’ 5%. In the event of a draw, the two teams would receive back 50% of the ‘risked’ points.

I actually used a modified version of this system quite profitably back in the days of betting shops and fixed odds coupons, but it was a lot of work maintaining those ratings after each match. Admittedly I monitored all 92 league teams for an entire season which may have been a little ambitious in those pre-Internet days, but surely someone out there with a little more talent than me could automate this and publish up-to-date ratings. Thinking about it, if it worked well in the days of fixed odds and bookies, it might be worth a shot today with Betfair.

By the way, if anyone would like to buy the CHC system from me, well - you can't.

But I will e-mail it to you for free...

And Then We Die

What are we trading for? The bottom line is surely “to improve our lives”. My social life for the past two and a half years has by necessity been seriously curtailed, but this has been a price worth paying because I have been able to make a very decent second income from it.

But what good is extra money if you never get a chance to really enjoy it, and drop dead from a heart-attack at the age of 60? Not much really. Life is short, and it’s easy to get caught up in the whirlwind of money-making and miss out on what is really important.

I have been looking at my spreadsheet which I have diligently maintained since January 1, 2006, and of the 905 days since then, I have traded on all but 69 of them. Family vacations and a trip to Germany for the World Cup account for most of those days, so many months I am trading every single day.

Is it worth it? In the short-term, the answer has to be 'yes', but where does it end? The expression ‘make hay while the sun shines’ comes to mind, because whilst for now I am able to make profits, I am well aware that this may not always be so. Markets can change in an instant.

Fortunately, I have a very understanding girlfriend who understands the rewards of what I do, but for many people I imagine this is not the case and relationships are suffering.

For now I shall carry on, but I do need to make a point of exercising regularly. I have noticed my weight start to increase slowly but steadily this year and I’m pretty sure that spending most of my spare time sitting on my arse trading is not the healthiest of lifestyles.

Anyone fancy a friendly challenge to see who can drop the most weight between now and Xmas? I’m at 16 stone 3.8lbs right now. First goal 16 stone. Time for another spreadsheet.

Forza Azzurri

My Italy replica shirt is donned, and the quarter-final with Spain is eagerly awaited. Admittedly influenced by my Italian heritage, I am laying Spain at 2.6, and at 4.7 in the outright winner market, and taking my usual approach of backing the Under 2.5 goals at 1.63. I shall probably only let this bet run for 10 minutes or so, before going Green-All-Over, but the odds do drop quite precipitously in that opening spell so it can be a relatively safe bet. Even with the disaster of an early goal, it would not be unusual to reach half-time with no further goals and be able to get out then.

All three group winners so far have lost, and I don't see why this run shouldn't continue today. Spain have looked impressive so far, but they rested a lot of players in their game against Greece, and that tactic doesn't always pay dividends with returning players a little rusty and losing their touch.

I had a dream about Betfair last night. Sad I know, but I find that after a long day on here, the brain is buzzing with odds and numbers and ideas and just doesn't know when it is time to turn off. Good luck.

Half-Time Update: I layed off the unders bet at 1.42 after 15 minutes, a nice profit for just a few minutes of increased heart rate. At least that's my workout for the day done with! And the Spain match odds bet has been backed back at 2.88. Come on Italy!

Russia - Netherlands

Although my usual strategy for quarter-finals is to back the under 2.5 goals and let it run, I have a feeling that this could be an open game. I'm on the unders for now, but in another ten minutes I shall lay that off (hopefully still 0-0 at 20:00) and hope for goals soon after.

I am still in shock at the finish to yesterday's game. Fortunately I avoided the carnage but I imagine there are a few people looking at significantly diminished balances today. I'm not averse to backing 1.01 shots because I feel that they are often value, but in football it is a dangerous game. I see that some money was put on Turkey at 1000 to win the whole tournament and now are at 15 / 15.5. Well done to someone. There must be a nervous layer right now.

Half-Time Update: £54.04 on unders, £54.00 on overs. Looking like unders right now, but a long way to go yet.

More Euro 2008

The football game of the day for me today is the Sweden - Russia game, and I am expecting a tight game and have gone with the unders. With half-time approaching and a goal by Russia, I shall be laying off at half-time as I quite expect Sweden to push for a goal this second half. The other game, Greece - Spain I am leaving alone for reasons outlined yesterday.

Call Me Roberto (For A Few Days Anyway)

So an Italian win tonight, coupled with Romania failing to win against the impressive looking Dutch, would see Italy advance to the Euro 2008 Quarter-Finals, and as I write this, the second-half is under-way, and Italy and the Netherlands both have one goal leads. From a betting standpoint, I'm always a little wary with these third group games. The first games are usually tight and good for the Unders. The second games tend to be a little more open, and favours the Overs. The third games are tricky - teams don't need to win, (sometimes they don't WANT to win), they rest players - bottom line is that strange things can happen. I backed the Unders in the Italy - France game expecting a tight first half and laid it off at half-time, so I can sit back and enjoy the second half. I left the Netherlands - Romania game alone, though there may have been some 'Dutching' opportunities...

Losing Focus

I seem to lose focus when trading. The pattern seems to be that I get myself into a good position early in an event, before I start making bad decisions and lose some, or all, of the ‘profit’ that I have accumulated.

Notable examples are football and basketball. By half-time I’m sitting pretty (it’s just an expression), but something happens to me in the second half (greed?, tiredness?, over-confidence?, boredom?) and I start making bad decisions until by the end of the game I’m far worse off than if I’d just stopped at half-time.

I’m learning though. In the Czech Republic – Turkey game yesterday, I greened up on the over/under 2.5 goals at half-time and left it alone after that. But then I didn’t learn in the Lakers – Celtics game, which I think was probably down to tiredness. I try to sleep before these middle of the night games, but I suspect it catches up with me, and whilst I’m focused and alert in the early stages, the tiredness kicks in.

Anyway, something to watch and learn from and maybe add to my Rules of Trading. (Coming soon!) Anyone else suffer from this? Comments appreciated.

Finché c' é vita c' é speranza

I have Italian roots. My grandmother was a Cassini, and supposedly I am descended from the famous family of astronomers by that name (although sadly the fortune that they presumably had at one time failed to descend to me which is why I am trading every night trying to build up my own).

Every two years I become Italian, once England are eliminated from the World Cup or the European Championships, which is quite often after two games, if indeed we have qualified in the first place. But this year, I don’t think I’ll bother.

I dated a girl from the Netherlands once, and spent two weeks in Amsterdam chasing her sister (another story) so maybe I should become Dutch. Don't like the shoes too much though, although Heineken is ok.

Then again, I visited Croatia many years back, before it was even called Croatia, and I like the chequered shirt design… Bit too Nazi-ish for my liking though.

Speaking of which, can’t ever see myself becoming German (my Mum would never speak to me again) although I did have a good time there for the 2006 World Cup. At least until the Portugal game which rather rules me out of cheering for the Portuguese.

France? Well, obviously no self-respecting Englishman could contemplate the idea of becoming a Frenchie.

So I guess I’m just a casual observer this year, but then again the Italians always start slowly and a win against France coupled with a Dutch win over Romania and WE’RE through to the quarters!! Avanti Azzurri!!

And the subject? It's an Italian proverb, meaning - "While there is life, there is hope" Something to dwell on as the odds drift away from you.

Mark Reynolds

“Luck has a peculiar habit of favouring those who don't depend on it”

And Lady Luck is very fickle. I’ve written before about how some days you can’t do a thing wrong, and other times you can’t put a foot wrong. Lady Luck was with me late last night. I was playing on the baseball game between the Ney York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks, and had laid the Mets at 1.15 in the 7th inning when they were 3-0 up, hoping that the D’Backs would score a run or two at some point and shift the price a little so that I could go Green All Over. They came up empty in the 7th and 8th, and in the 9th they managed to get two runners in scoring position albeit with two outs. Down to their last strike, and with 1.01 being taken (not laid by me unfortunately), some guy called Mark Reynolds hits a three run homer to tie the game up and make my day. The Mets did go on to win, but I was already green and in bed by that time. (Apologies to non-baseball people – in cricketing terms I guess it was like needing a six off the last ball and getting it!)

Keeping Track

In the year to April 2007, average earnings of full-time male employees were £498 per week, while for women it was £394, according to the Office of National Statistics. [BBC News 19/2/08]

I like numbers. They motivate me. If I am trying to lose weight, I record my weight each day. If I am trying to exercise more, I record the miles run or biked, or the yards swum. If I am trying to cut down on alcohol, I record how many days a month I drink. If I am trying to save money, I record it. It’s the same with investing. I record my daily wins and losses by sport in a giant spreadsheet, and keep track of my average daily profit/loss for the past 10 days, 30 days, year, and my average gain per day since I started. Well, not quite since I started, but once I decided to take this investing seriously. So as a result, I have data for every day since New Year’s Day 2005.

I have daily targets which I try to meet, starting with the first target of recording a profit, and rising to the ultimate target of beating my best ever daily total. In between are targets to beat such as my 10 day daily average, my 30 day daily average, my yearly daily average, and my all-time daily average. And then there’s the ‘average earnings for a full-time person’ target (see above) to beat.

The temptation can be to take risks in an effort to achieve these targets, but I have learned not to force anything, but to await the opportunities which sometimes be like London buses and come along all at once, before vanishing for days. Do many of you out there reading this keep records? Any ideas?

Boring

I have been told (indirectly over on John the Gambler's blog) by ‘poetaster’ that my blog is boring. His comment was “Cassini, your blog is boring- thats why no one ever reads it. You shouldnt offend your one and only reader”, the latter part of the comment being a reference to my teasing John The Gambler about his love for beer. Nothing wrong with liking beer - I’m partial to a pint myself on occasion – I was simply surprised to see ‘Beer’ languishing outside of his top 5.

Anyway, if John is my only reader, then how does 'poo-taster' know that my blog is boring? And why would it have over 4,000 hits since March unless John has nothing better to do all day than read my blog over and over… ok, so maybe thinking about it, that IS a distinct possibility (just kidding John).

So my blog is boring? Well, maybe so. Betting is one of those things in life that is tremendously exciting (not always in a positive way) for the person doing it, but is not quite so exciting to sit and read about. For example, try reading books on trading. They tend to be a little dry to say the least, entry-points, exit strategies, position size etc, yawn, yawn, yawn, so I’m not sure what ‘poo-taster’ is expecting from a blog about gambling.

My intention when I started this was to post every few days about things going on in my gambling world, and try to stimulate some debate about ideas and observations that I have. I guess it’s fair to say that this hasn’t exactly happened. I have had very view comments posted, so the blog falls victim to the vicious circle of no comments, meaning no interest, meaning not much incentive to come up with something new the next day.

So do I give up, continue with the blog as it, make changes to it but continue on a gambling theme, or make changes and discuss wider issues such as “Why there is no God”?

Comments please.

Euro 2008

The second most important tournament in international football got under way this weekend and all four games went to the favourites, and all four finished under 2.5 goals.

I like to back the unders in these tournaments, especially the first round of the group games. I usually take a relatively large position pre-game, and then lay it off as time ticks away. The early goal in the Croatia-Austria game was slightly concerning, but I changed my trousers, kept my nerve, and everything worked out OK.

It always seems that the price on the unders drops too steeply for the first 3 minutes or so, before it stalls for another 5 or 6 minutes. For example in the Germany - Poland game, the unders at the start was 1.89 / 1.90 - after three minutes the price was 1.81/1.82. That's a nice move in three minutes. Strangely, the prices then stalled for five minutes, and then dropped precipitously from 1.8 / 1.81 to 1.67 / 1.68 in two minutes. I need more data, but does anyone have a system that is based on backing the unders and laying it off early in the game? Comments, as always, very welcome.

Full-Time?

The Betfair forum frequently features posts asking "should I go full-time?" and seeking advice. Quite often, these posts are from people who signed up to Betfair in the last few months. Possibly they have got lucky and think their luck will last for ever, or they have a system that has performed well, but more likely they are looking to impress with the implication that by asking the question, they are Mr. Big Shot. Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on the subject.

First off, why trade full-time? Why not trade evenings and weekends? There are plenty of trading opportunities, and a full-time job is not something to give up in a hurry. A job is not just about the paycheck - there are benefits and retirement income to think of, plus most jobs are at least somewhat social in part, and of course most people will be earning a lot more in the future once they have put in the hours (or years).

Why does it matter what other people do? If you have an edge, then you will be able to make trading pay. If you don't, then you are gambling, and the odds will catch up with you sooner or later. Anyone seriously considering full-time trading should be aware that systems don't always work for ever. The market is always changing and edges can disappear overnight. It would be a downer to quit your job on a Friday, start trading full-time on Monday only to find that your system no longer worked. A good trader would need to be able to adapt quickly and have some kind of a backup plan.

For sure, some people do make trading pay, at least for a while, but it is not an easy way to earn a living. I trade part-time, and over the last two years have matched my regular income, but it is stressful enough doing it as a hobby. I can't imagine how stressful it would be if it were my only income source.

I know one guy (see The Experiment listed under other blogs) requested his hours be reduced so that he could spend more time trading, and that might be a reasonable option, but in general, until you have a solid few years of profitable trading behind you, I would be very hesitant to say that full-time was the way to go. There's plenty to be made part-time.

Good Riddance To May

May should have been a good month. My old Mum turned 80, and a couple of Bank Holidays in there should have meant fun and laughter all round. But it was not a good month on the investing front. In fact my first losing month since April 2007, and a £5,599.15 loss to be exact.

Where did it all go wrong? In a word - 'basketball'. In too big on a couple of markets that I should probably have stayed away from, or at least reduced my risk, but as always with losses, learn from mistakes and move forward. I also lost too much on a 'fun' bet on Aussie Rules footy, which came down to the last kick which was missed. NOT my idea of fun.

Some months everything goes for you, and some months nothing seems to. Maybe the gods of gambling took May off for holiday, but I hope they are back for June. Two down months in a row, and the doubts start creeping in, and we're not at home to Mr. Self-Doubter this year. Good luck for June to everyone (anyone?) reading this.

At least my month wasn't as bad as the poor sap who offered Italy at 1000 in their Volleyball game against Japan yesterday. Italy won six points in a row, tied the game up and went on to win.