Risk Intelligence Quotient

Risk Intelligence Quotient (RQ) is a measure of a person’s ability to estimate probabilities accurately.

People with high risk intelligence tend to make better predictions than those with low RQ.

There is five minute test at http://www.projectionpoint.com/index.php which will measure your RQ. For what it's worth, my score was 81.

The Office for National Statistics carried out a study a few years back, which included these two questions: Choose from A) A guaranteed payment of £1,000 or B) A 1 in 5 chance of winning £10,000.

Would you rather receive £1,000 today or £1,100 next year?

The results show that people were predominantly averse to risk and had short time horizons financially.

More than three-quarters (78 per cent) of people said they would choose to receive a guaranteed payment of £1,000 rather than take a one in five chance of winning £10,000, while 22 per cent preferred the option of winning £10,000.

Similarly, 80 per cent of people said they would rather receive £1,000 today than £1,100 next year, while 20 per cent said they would rather receive £1,100 next year.

Drawmaster Picks 15.Jan.11

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster tips this weekend are: Wigan Athletic v Fulham (3.20); West Bromwich Albion v Blackpool (3.80) and Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United (3.30). 

The Drawmaster system has drawn a blank for three consecutive weeks, but at the typical draw prices, long losing runs are inevitable. I actually see more value in laying West Bromwich Albion here, than in backing the draw.

I'm adding one other tip which is Over 2.5 goals Stuttgart v Mainz '05 which was available at 1.9, but has come in to 1.86. Not surprising, and still value in my opinion.

Dreaming

Bayer Leverkusen appear to still be in hibernation mode, or at least their defence was for the opening two goals tonight, which put paid to the draw possibility. And it was all looking so good at half-time. My dreams of riches were soon shattered, unlike a Walter Mitty character on the Betfair forum who wrote this:

Here is what I can currently afford to buy on my quest to buy my dream home in Florida.

Start Bank: $198 Current bank:$286,31
Projected Date for buying my dream home: Nov 23, 2011

My goal is to build up a large enough bank to buy a home in Florida. I was there a few years ago, and it is a very nice climate (generally) and was thinking that it would be a nice thing to buy with my betting bank. It should also be said that it is a very good time to be buying real-estate, now and for the next few years, but the window of opportunity will close again. Anyway, it is my goal.My dream. My ambition. I believe that everyone should have some sort of tangible goal to work towards. Particularly something with a date and a time to achieve it by. So, I need to accumulate enough money to buy a house within 12-24 months, but I want to start with a small bank - $200-$300. I'll need to have a small edge and compound the profits ruthlessly and consistently for quite a period of time.

I've been working it out mathematically, and I believe it actually has a good chance of succeeding. It is really a question of sticking to it day after day with iron discipline and doing nothing else.

I will post my results as I go and I will discuss my system and model, staking, etc. as I go. I will also calculate mathematically the date of buying my dream home in Florida. On that date, I will publish the whole system, complete results ...everything...to help others to achieve their own goals and ambitions.

Well, don't hold your breath. The guy has been on Betfair for close to six years, and a bank of $198 hardly augurs well for his dream to come true. While there's nothing wrong with having a dream, keeping it real might be a consideration.

Full House

Strong draws are thin on the ground this weekend; just two - St Pauli v Freiburg and Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United. Weaker draws are Sporting de Gijon v Hercules, Wigan Athletic v Fulham, Lens v St Etienne, Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund, Cagliari v Palermo and Brescia v Parma. Home value picks are Auxerre (2.04) v Monaco, Brest (2.02) v Caen, Olympique Marseille (1.87) v Bordeaux, Nuremburg (2.14) v Borussia Moenchengladbach, Schalke '04 (2.22) v Hamburg, Kaiserslautern (1.98) v Koln and Birmingham City (2.56) v Aston Villa while AS Roma look value at 2.06 to win away to Cesena.

I'm a little concerned that some of the form is now several weeks old in France and Germany as they emerge from their winter hibernation, but it's good to have a full slate of matches again.

Golden Nuggets

Anyone who follows the NBA, or basketball in general, will know that one player can make a huge difference to a team. The absence of a player such as Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Monta Ellis, Dwyane Wade or Amar'e Stoudemire (how cool is that to have an apostrophe in your name?) who score an average of 25 points a game will significantly affect the odds, far more than the absence of say Didier Drogba would affect Chelsea's price. So when I heard that the Miami Heat would be missing LeBron James (average 25.4 points per game) for their already tough game at Denver v the Nuggets, a quick check of the handicap market (Denver getting 2.5) showed money on Denver available around the 1.85 mark. Value? The Nuggets won by 28.

I mentioned that the game was 'already tough' and that's because the NBA regularly schedules back-to-back (consecutive nights) games for teams. There are various systems and theories that revolve around game twos of back-to-backs, but my experience is that any edge is miniscule. Two nights ago the Heat played in LA and lost to the in-form Clippers, and then had to fly to Denver for last night's game. In US sports, Denver is a unique place to go for a game, given that the altitude there is about, as Broncos fans will know, one mile, and ideally teams arrive there more than a day ahead to get acclimated. Of course, when you have a game the night before, you have no choice but to arrive late, and if Miami left LA straight after their loss, they wouldn't have arrived until the wee hours of Thursday, and losing an hour on the way.

How significant is this? Over the last 55 games that Denver has hosted an opponent playing the second game of a back-to-back, they have a 46-9 record. A little nugget of information for you (pun intended).

The Clippers are also worth looking at a little deeper than their overall record. They started the season abysmally, going 1-13 before finding their feet improving to 4-8 over the next twelve games. Since that time, they are 8-3 and beating teams like Miami almost with ease. They have the 13th best (ok, 3rd worst!) record in the Western Conference, but with more than half the teams making the play-offs, and half the season to come, they can still make it. They are currently 7 wins behind Portland, who have injury problems (the latest is Brandon Roy having surgery on both knees) and I can see the Clippers catching several teams currently above them.

Tissue Compiling

A nice lay of Liverpool helped to ease the pain of the Premium Charge and I have the latest update to the ratings spreadsheet to thank. Prior to last weekend, I would have gone with the strong draw on this game, but I have spent some time improving it so that when I enter the teams names, along with the predicted superiority, it also now automatically calculates odds for the games. Prior to this, the calculation was a time-consuming task that I could only do for specific games.

It should get more accurate as I get more data into the spreadsheet. This is only my second full season, and some of the numbers are drawn from a small sample, so care still needs to be exercised.

Take the Wigan Athletic v Fulham game this Saturday for example. Wigan are -0.24, and my odds are H: 2.56 D 3.1 A 3.5. They compare relatively closely to Betfair's 2.62, 3.3, 3.1, with my draw price shorter because at -0.24, this is a weak draw, and weak draws have been hitting at a higher rate than they 'should'.

The Merseyside derby? Ignoring the 'Dalglish homecoming' factor, and Liverpool are -0.34 and the odds for me are H: 2.4, D: 3.59, A: 3.4. Betfair have 2.32, 3.35, 3.65. Prety close, although I suspect that I need to adjust more for recent form. I could be joining the Lay The Draw club on this one!

I'm also having a look at the Over / Under 2.5 goals markets - still lots of improvements to be made, but it's promising - and fun.

Closing In On A Million

It's Premium Charge time again, and the portal for this week has me at 19.92%, (up from 19.82%, but still not over the magic 20% mark), and so I am hit again with the charge. That's ok though, next week I'll be at 20.02% with a little luck.

Lifetime Profile
Markets 110354

Gross PL £ 1,775,738.83

Commission Generated £ 372,946.88 +
Other Charges £ 74,758.99 +
Premium Charges (exc. last week) £ 917.78 =
Total Charges £ 448,623.65

Total Charges % 25.26

Unfortunately, that is not my account above, but it was interesting reading. Someone posted his account details on the forum, and while I have no reason to doubt their authenticity, it is always a possibility but the figures are in line with what would be expected.

Of course, when presented with numbers like those, one can't help but want to compare ones own figures. While the account above is significantly more active than mine, with over 110k markets entered, the average gross profit per market of £16.09, and net profit of £12.026 are not too dissimilar to mine.

Now I just need to find a way to get involved in a lot more markets and maintain the same average profit. The first part is a lot easier than the second, but if I can stay in the game for a total of 83,153 quality markets, (actually slightly less as my average profit is slightly higher), the first Betfair million will be in the bank! At about 50 markets a week, that'll be in about 27 more years. Hmmm. Not sure I can wait that long.

Pooling Thoughts

I was wondering where the extra 100+ readers a day had come from - over 400 daily for the past week, comapred with just over 300 a day in December. The answer appears to be a post on the Betfair forum from dlarssonf which, in response to another request asking for betting / trading blogs, had this to say:

"Green All Over" is one of the best, Cassini is totally up his own arse though which makes it a bit nauseating sometimes but apart from that, credit where its due, there is some excellent posts.

I think he means there 'are' some excellent posts, but the comment is appreciated. I think.

Blackpool v Liverpool tomorrow night. I hope Mark Iverson won't object to me posting his comment on this game, but I do so because it mirrors mine. Mark wrote:

One thing I do like about following my ratings is that it cuts out the background 'noise' and there's plenty being generated by both these clubs at the minute. Liverpudlians will be hoping for a fairytale start for Dalglish but from what I can make out it could be a difficult trip to the seaside. Both teams have very similar 4 match averages and their home/away form looks on an even keel. So what's the play? I can't rule out Blackpool sneaking this one so I need them onside along with the draw. Conclusion: Lay Liverpool @ 1.98

On the ratings alone, Liverpool are way too short, but of course there is the 'new manager' factor to consider. Blackpool's home form is poor though, but then again so is Liverpool's away form - ranked 17th and 18th respectively. The ratings have this as a strong draw, but like Mark, I want the Blackpool win on my side and a lay of Liverpool looks the value play to me.

Ducks And Tigers

Nothing doing on the Hercules v Atletico Madrid game, but at least they had the decency to let me lay off on the 0-0 score before opening the scoring. Hercules have had an impressive first half to the season, especially at home, and are now 11th in my ratings as well as in La Liga and have a good chance of staying up after being promoted last season. Their one away win was the 2-0 win at Barcelona, which was Barcelona's only home defeat to date.

The College Football season comes to an end in a few minutes, with the National Championship game between the unbeaten Oregon Ducks of the PAC-10 conference and the unbeaten Auburn Tigers from the SEC. Oregon are slight favourites, but the markets are predicting a close game. For those who like these trends, the SEC hasn't lost in six BCS National Championships, and have covered the spread every time. Oregon average almost 50 points a game (top of the FBS teams) and are number one in total offense averaging over 537 yards per game. As well as being a top passing team, the Ducks can also run the football, averaging almost 304 yards per game, good enough for fourth best in the nation. Something to consider if you are trading this game is the second half strength of Oregon. The Ducks outscored opponents 277-77 in the second half of games this season.

Football Pricing

Not much going on tonight in football, with just the Hercules v Atletico Madrid game of interest to me. The ratings have this as a strong draw, which is available at 3.55 on BETDAQ (I missed the 3.65). These picks are hitting at 37.5% for the season in La Liga, and 35.16% across all the majors (excluding the 'wacky' Bundesliga).

Yesterday was a bit of a nightmare, with nothing seeming to go my way. The PC avoidance strategy of backing 0-0 was tried in the Leicester City v Manchester City game, and of course lasted all of 22 seconds. Then I tried my hand at trading the NFL Wildcard games on BETDAQ, and got caught in both games for significant losses. For trading BETDAQ is just clunky to use. When you place a bet on Betfair, in the event that you want to cancel it immediately (as is often the case in American Football with its game changing 'penalty flags' for example), there is a Cancel Unmatched button right where you have just entered the bet, so it's a simple process. Not so on BETDAQ, where the quickest way seems to be to click on two buttons on the bottom right of the screen, which takes far longer ('far longer' being a relative term, but significant enough to have a negative effect). I wasn't helped by the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles were both very poor, but anyway, the result was a fair-size loss, but the lesson has been learned that for trading a sport like the NFL, BETDAQ is just not suitable. Time to move on.

Mouldhouse had another reply, which is worthy of inclusion in a post rather than remain tucked away in a comment that might be read by just me. He knows far more about the workings of the football markets than I do, and while the UK Betting Exchanges might be smaller fish than we sometimes think, I suspect that a wildly varying price such as Liverpool's at Blackburn Rovers last week is more down to fresh information becoming known, than because someone in Asia has a more sophisticated model than anyone else. As I wrote before, the price is going to be set where supply meets demand, and different markets are always going to be in the same ballpark. If the price is NOT where supply meets demand, then an opportunity exists, as I learned in Economics back in '73-75. Besides, only members (account holders) of Betfair are able to offer prices on Betfair. BP are traded on the New York Stock Exchange and in London, and no doubt several other markets too. Are the prices wildly different? Does news that becomes known in New York before London take long to impact the price in London? Anyway, here's the comment before I lose more money on the Hercules v Atletico Madrid 0-0 score!

"Prices on the exchanges reflect the opinion of members of the exchange. The price is where supply equals demand."

Nope, that's not correct. Watch the asian bookmakers prices, and watch when they change, and watch what happens to betfair a couple of seconds after. The pricesetters from there are beating the drum, and the betfair market just follows accordingly.

There's one supplier with a very fast bot that moves to the asian lines or into that spread within a couple of seconds.

In the recent premiership games the vast majority of teams traded in a very large range of prices. E.g for decent money Liverpool traded 2.3 - 1.87 away at Blackburn.

Did the opinion of the members on the exchange really change that much? At what point was this extremely liquid market "providing an accurate assessment of probabilites"? The same can be said of almost all the games the other night (last wednesday).

I know its nice to think that betfair is a massive market, and follow the EMH [Efficient Market Hypothesis], etc, but its just not the case I'm afraid. Hundreds of millions is being bet in asia where the prices come from, which filter down to Betfair, where a million or two is matched on a game pre-off.

I take positions in >50% of UK football matches and win money over the season. Not at the same ROI as F-E or even similar, but the absolute profit of course vastly exceeds his. How is it possible to make 5%-10% ROI over many seasons if the markets are even loosely efficient? Betting in over half the games is selective to a degree, but nothing like the degree which you are suggesting.

I'm afraid the sports markets are nowhere near sophisticated enough to be considered efficient as yet. The very successful stock investors (e.g. Buffett) show that the stock market as a whole isn't efficient as yet, although the EMH is a lot easier to "accept" there - sports markets simply have no chance, as yet.

PS: If the One Armed Trader would please e-mail me at calciocassini at aol.com I have the study on which my NBA Big Home 'Dogs post was based. Thanks.

Always v Often

Another comment from Mouldhouse:

However your comments about the source of odds and their predictive abilities are wholly inaccurate I am afraid.

Do you realise that the vast majority of markets on the exchange are shaped by external forces - cricket by the Asian/Indian market, soccer by the Asian books, american sports by pinnacle and Vegas lines?

And if liquid markets can often accurately offer probabilities of an event (they can't!), what's the point behind trying to beat them with football ratings? Why is it possible to lay the odds on teams year in, year out, blindly, and make a profit?

You can't hold all those views simultaneously, they contradict each other on a number of levels.

Prices on the exchanges reflect the opinion of members of the exchange. The price is where supply equals demand. External forces sounds very dramatic, but in any competitive business, all things being equal, prices will be similar from one source to another. If you set a price that is out of line, then it will either be completely ignored or snapped up. However, I qualified my comment with "...the BEST prices are from individuals" because if individuals like you and I want our bets to be matched, we need to at least match the odds available elsewhere.

As for the prices on liquid markets reflecting the true probability of an outcome - I am not saying that the markets 'always' accurately reflect the probabilities of events. I was addressing the comment about oddsmakers odds reflecting probability, which they don't, and while the prices on the football markets are for the most part extremely accurate, as Football Elite have shown, it is possible to win long-term if you are selective. The implied probabilities are often correct though, or the layers would soon be out of business, but the trick is to identify those games where the prices are 'wrong'. Football Elite do not have Recommended Bets in more than a small number of games each week.

The goal of the ratings? - to identify those games that offer value. The aim is not to try and win in every market. The market may often be right, but it isn't always right.

As for blindly laying odds-on teams year in, year out, I'm sure that would not be a profitable strategy, but selectively laying odds-on teams can be as I have written about in the past, although it would be surprising if the market didn't adjust at some point.

Having said all that, it is far easier to find value in back-and-forth in-running events which is why football and my ratings are just a small part of my betting arsenal.

Which leads me into today's football round up, and starting with the worst, the Serie A home picks were nothing short of awful. AC Milan gave up four goals at home in a draw, and Parma and Lazio both lost 1-2.

In Spain, Espanyol at least won comfortably enough, but Racing Santander gave up a 90' equaliser.

Football Elite had Santander and Parma as their Recommended Bets, but value doesn't always mean a winner and their poor run of late continues.

The silver lining today was the performance of the draw selections, which saved the day. The nap strong draw Chievo Verona v Palermo (3.3) finished 0-0 as did the weaker picks of Osasuna v Getafe (3.4) and Cesena v Genoa (3.25).

And of course, Manchester United came in at 1.72.

The first NFL Wildcard game didn't go to plan today though with the Kansas City Chiefs making turnover after turnover and costing me most of Saturday's profits in the process. And the worst of it is that the loss was on BETDAQ so it doesn't even help the PC this week! Hoping for better from the Packers and Eagles coming up shortly.

Understanding Odds

Rich had a comment on my "For Entertainment Purposes Only" post.

Discussing "value" as related to the probability of the result of a sporting event shows a fundamentally flawed understanding of what the odds on offer means. I quote "Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly," said Howard Martin, a noted expert on how odds are calculated, "there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line."

Although that comment refers to US sports spreads, it's equally true of all odds.

I have to disagree, since it all rather depends on the source of the odds.

The odds you will find at a US Sportsbook or a UK bookmaker have a large built-in over-round which is not found on betting exchanges. No one would suggest that the price offered by a bookmaker could be translated directly into an implied probability, but when using prices from a betting exchange, you can often do this, especially in liquid markets. 

One study using the prices for the 2006 World Cup showed that "analysis of outright betting on the 2006 World Cup revealed that Betfair's book on the top twelve teams in the betting market was betting to an over-round of 100.92 against an average over-round of 112 elsewhere." 

Look at today's upcoming NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. A quick look at the current prices on offer from William Hill are 1.57 and 2.55 respectively, (102.91%) while on Betfair you can get 1.58 and 2.7 (100.33%). If you hold out for 1.59 and 2.72, the book becomes under-round. Betfair's implied probabilities for today's game have Baltimore at 63%, Kansas City at 37%. (At least William Hill know that Kansas City (a city) is the team's geographical location rather than Kansas (which is a state). I've written on this subject before, and it's pathetic that a company the size of Betfair can't get this right. And just so you all know, most of Kansas City isn't even in Kansas - it's in Missouri!)

Also, it's worth mentioning that a study by economist Steven D Levitt in 2004 actually showed that US sportsbooks do not set prices in the NFL to clear markets, as was commonly assumed, but set prices to maximize profits. "His data supported the theory that bookmakers are better able to predict both the outcomes of NFL games as well as bettors’ tendencies. This predictive superiority allows bookmakers to establish betting lines inducing uneven betting favoring the less likely outcome, increasing bookmaker profits despite the increased risk." I think it would be naïve to think that UK bookmakers didn't take a similar approach, at least in some sports.

Agreed that anyone who thinks that a bookmaker's odds reflect probability "shows a fundamentally flawed understanding of what the odds on offer mean", but the best prices offered on an exchange are, for the most part, from individuals who have no interest in building an over-round book.

Serie A / La Liga

Serie A and La Liga action today, and the single strong draw pick is Chievo Verona v Palermo. Three weaker draws are Osasuna v Getafe, Sampdoria v AS Roma and Cesena v Genoa.

Home value picks are AC Milan (1.61) v Udinese, Parma (2.0) v Cagliari, Lazio (1.42) v Lecce, Espanyol (1.89) v Real Zaragoza, and Racing Santander (2.0) v Sporting de Gijon.

If Manchester United v Liverpool were a league game, 1.72 is a value price on United. I'm in for a small punt, hoping the game is played as if it were an EPL match.

And Eddie Howe has a big decision to make. He is, of course, hugely popular at Bournemouth, and rightly so. He has turned Bournemouth around on a shoestring, and his loyalty to one club is something we don't see often these days, and now he has to decide whether to join a sleeping giant of the game, go to Charlton Athletic, or stay at Bournemouth. Three clubs currently within eight league places of each other. I hope he seizes the opportunity of a lifetime and comes to south London - SE25, not SE7.

Betting: For Entertainment Purposes Only

A refreshing response to my comment on the Expat Punter's post from earlier. I was hoping that it wouldn't be taken the wrong way, and Rob made a considered reply which deserves posting in full here.

You're spot on there when you say that you got the feeling it was published in a hurry. It was, kinda. To be honest I wanted to post something that wasn't just a few lines of text followed by a P&L and recent BF forum posts steered me towards that subject. Though it may seem like it my post wasn't designed to be an exercise in fishing but I'll bet there's plenty who have read it will think to the contrary.

There are many folk out there who are quick to proffer their advice to the newbies (like obtain value, staking plans etc) but I wonder just how many practice what they preach on a daily basis. I was discussing your post with a friend over breakfast and wondering how to respond without coming across as a total know nothing (since I've read and re-read my original post and I now realise I could have maybe written it a little differently).

I'm not advocating that you should dive into a market regardless of the price, far from it, but I do think that the whole concept of 'value' is basically subjective. One man's meat is another man's poison. You can still be a loser overall by obtaining (your own perceived) value IF your particular selection method sucks. Just because your selection wins doesn't mean that it was a value price. For me value has no bearing on the outcome whatsoever, all it does is maximise your actual betting bank balance IF your selection method does not suck.

The crux of all of this though lies in the attitude of the individual and what his reasons for betting are. The way I see it is that a very small percentage of people do this for a living - there's no such thing as a 'fun' bet for those people. The rest are made up of complete mugs, thrill bettors, hobbyists, wannabe pros, etc etc. For the majority it doesn't really matter if they are really obtaining value from one bet to the next as they aren't thinking in terms of being in it for the long haul as undoubtedly the professional punters do.

It was refreshing to read that you think that one can actually have an edge without being aware of what exactly it is. I think too many people think they possess this edge factor when in fact they don't. I personally don't claim to have anything Holy Grailish up my sleeve though there's days when I wish I did. One thing I have taken away with me from your post is that I can certainly do better that I currently am. If you started with a hundred quid and now pay PC then IT CAN BE DONE :-)

I think one of the biggest factors affecting our individual circumstances, good or bad, is basically down to that other giant in the world of betting advice - discipline. Without a disciplined approach to all this there's no amount of value, edges, or the like in the world that will keep us from drowning. I'd like to thank you for picking on me (kidding) as you've given me some food for thought. Best wishes and good luck.

Just a couple of comments before the Indianapolis Colts v New York Jets game gets underway. Agreed, that a winner doesn't mean the bet was value. Nor does a loser mean that the bet wasn't value. You could be offered 2-1 on a coin toss, and on a single spin you will win or lose 50% of the time, but 2-1 is a value price every time. A lot of people, especially older punters raised on horse-racing, fail to understand this. As for the majority of bettors being "complete mugs, thrill bettors, hobbyists, wannabe pros, etc etc. For the majority it doesn't really matter if they are really obtaining value from one bet to the next as they aren't thinking in terms of being in it for the long haul as undoubtedly the professional punters do", that's fine with me. As Mouldhouse said, anyone serious about making money from gambling needs all the above, and lots of them, because obviously, without losers, there would be no winners. Oh, and yes, we need discipline.

Saints Go Marching Out

With no Premier League games today, I assumed that there would be no selections for Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster system, but I was wrong. Rather oddly, he dipped into League Two for his picks, and probably wishes he hadn't. None of the three picks of Crewe Alexandra v Wycombe Wanderers, Southend United v Chesterfield and Stockport County v Gillingham finished drawn, and two of the three were decided by three goals or more - 3-0 and 1-5. Even if all three had been draws, I would still question the decision to force three selections for this system rather than just wait for a week. Anyway, the result is that having had just two blank weeks in the first eighteen of the season, the system has now come up empty three weeks in a row.

Also drawing a blank today were Football Elite, who had Real Sociedad at 3.0 to beat Sevilla. They led 2-1 at half-time, but lost 2-3.

The first NFL Wildcard play-off game is currently in progress, and the 1.22 Saints price I suggested was too short drifted out to 10.0, and I am 'green all over' after the early signs were for a straight run to 1.01 for the Saints. American Football games are seldom decided in the first quarter though, and while it's easy to panic when it seems all is lost, keeping a clear head and making rational decisions is the way to go, and it's a lot easier to do when your stake is 'sensible' and you can see the big picture.

d'Alambert

I didn't know until today that Stevenage Borough are now just Stevenage. A bit unfortunate when your nickname is "The Boro". This wasn't the only big change to their entry in my spreadsheet with their 'shock' victory over Newcastle propelling them to top spot in the League Two ratings. I'm still not convinced that I should transfer points between teams on cup days, because one result can make a big difference, but the big benefeciaries are teams that I seldom use the ratings to bet on anyway, and the teams that suffer probably shouldn't be losing at home to Notts County or at Stevenage anyway!

A good comment on my previous post about "Finding An Edge", which was a little provocative. I can be like that. Mouldhouse took the time to say a few things.

"The answer is that if you are profitable long-term, then you have an edge, whether you are aware of it or not. If you are not profitable long-term, then you do not have an edge."

Not necessarily a cause and effect thing. A small minority will have made money thanks to one decent score, with no edge whatsoever. Usually a multiple bet of course. Think "lottery ticket".

This is why I qualified my statement with 'if you are profitable long-term', and while a million pound lottery winner would (I would hope!) be profitable long-term, I rather meant to exclude such exceptions.

"No one serious about making money can be happy with a price that isn't value."

Again, not 100% accurate. Some of the biggest winning traders I know are constantly happy taking prices that are not value, because they know the markets they operate in, and know they will be able to sell those bets back at even worse value and lock in a green screen. I'm sure you must do this as well sometimes. I'm sure lots of winners have laid 1.0x for "insurance", knowing they are giving money away and that at the price they are giving away value, but happy to lock in a large gain on the event.

Yes indeed, but the key here is that your experience of the market tells you that the probability is high that you will be able to exit your position for a profit. I might lay at 1.05 not because I expect the layed selection to win, but because I am confident that I can exit at 1.1 at some point. Is 1.05 value to back or lay? If the bet goes on to win more than 95.24% of the time, then arguably it is. But what if 55% of the time it goes out to 1.1 before coming in to win?

"It is rather sad to read about people waiting for pay day before they can put their next deposit into their account, and then pulling funds out to pay for incidental expenses."

Yes, it is, but without those guys, you won't be winning on betfair. Without people like that in the long run you wouldn't be winning anywhere with people like that, because the sharks would eat each other on the exchanges, and the bookies wouldn't be profitable enough. Its one of those things about being a +EV player - its a nice feeling, but you are never going to be Robin Hood. Via the conduit of the middleman, be it betfair or the bookmaker, sadly you feed on the shortcomings and lack of ability of the rest of the pool. Doesn't stop me sleeping at night to be honest.

Fortunately for us, there seems to be no likelihood that optimism will conquer realism any time soon. Evidence such as the never-ending demand for Roulette and Lottery betting systems shows that logic takes a back-seat for many people. Or the idea that a funky staking system can somehow turn a losing system into a winning one.

Still, these people are in good company. Even the famed mathematician Jean le Rond d'Alambert famously erred in claiming that the probability that at least one head should appear in two consecutive tosses of a fair coin is 2/3 rather than 3/4.

Bank Edging Up

The latest post from The Expat Punter is titled Finding An Edge, and he writes:

The edge is that thing that you must possess that gives you an advantage over your fellow bettors in your chosen betting medium, be it football, horses, tennis or whatever. This is the thing that you absolutely must have if you are to survive over the longer term as a bettor.

So far so good. If you're backing coin tosses at evens, you have no edge - commission will erode your bank away. To make it worthwhile, you need an edge. He continues:

Personally I don’t think I have one but then again maybe I do but don’t realise it.

The answer is that if you are profitable long-term, then you have an edge, whether you are aware of it or not. If you are not profitable long-term, then you do not have an edge.

I know a couple of really good staking systems (for laying) that can be applied to pretty much any market – maybe they are an edge of sorts.

No - the stake cannot create an edge. Either a bet is value or it is not. The stake size has no effect on this. And laying is no different to backing.

I read a lot about people moaning over their failure to capitalise on a particular event (a goal scored or whatever) because they were waiting for a price and the event occurred before their price was reached. This ties in with another biggie subject and that is the contention that you must always seek value if you are to succeed. So while you are sitting waiting for your ‘value’ price to appear a goal gets scored and you miss out. Or better yet you get your value price and the horse falls at the first fence. My take on value is that if you are happy with a price, regardless of whether it is truely a value price, then step in. I would say that the vast majority of punters, and I count myself here, could not price a market to save their lives so any thoughts of finding value goes straight out the window.

No one serious about making money can be happy with a price that isn't value. If your 'value' price is accurate, and one would hope that it is otherwise you'll be easy prey for those on the exchanges who know the true price, then why would you accept anything less? Never 'step in' unless a price is value. Well, not if you want to be a winner. My wife is from California where there are a number of casinos which are allowed to advertise on TV and radio. When a casino advertises that they have the 'loosest slots', they're not offering you value - they are saying that long-term, for every dollar you give us, we'll give you 90 cents back. If that's your attitude to betting, i.e. entertainment only, then don't wait for the value price, just take any price, and have fun.

Anyway, back to the subject. So, if the markets are so efficient that it’s impossible to gain an edge mathematically how else do we do it?

There is no other way - you find value or forget about betting as a money-making venture.

The form books are there for all to read, the racing press is available in every corner newsagents in the land. That nails the door shut there – if I can spot an unusual trend that proves profitable over a long term then so can the next guy who reads the same paper. Edge gone. It’s all very baffling if you ask me. I think those who genuinely do have some sort of leg up on the rest of us are the truly dedicated sort who actually do the legwork and work their arses off to find those little clues that the majority of us are too lazy to uncover. Either that or they have horseshoes up their jacksies.

It's all very baffling to me why people in 2011 are still obsessed with horse-racing. Yes, 25 years ago, horses and dogs, the football pools, Miss World and the General Election was about it for choice, but not today. We are spoilt for choice these days, and why anyone would think they have a better chance of finding the winner in a midweek race at some small track with twenty horses entered than in a two-outcome event like tennis, ice-hockey, darts, snooker, football (some markets), basketball, or whatever your preference is, just isn't logical. To be profitable from horse-racing, you need to be in the know, and if you're not in the know, then the time spent looking at the form for 20+ runners could be much better spent looking at other sports. Yes, there is racing nearly every day, but so what? The great advantage we have is that we don't have to bet. We can wait for value.

I don’t usually proof read my stuff until it’s actually posted so the above might just be the biggest load of bollocks ever but it’s my load of bollocks and I offer it to you free of charge.

Yes, probably for the best, since I doubt that you'd be able to sell that advice!

Now, you might be thinking after having looked at my pathetic account balance that I know feck all so why listen to me but you’d be wrong. I know stuff, plenty of stuff, but right now I have to content myself with Mickey Mousery for a while until I can build a balance that I can actually do something with.

If it's taking too long to get the bank to build up, then perhaps you don't have that edge yet? If you have an edge, it doesn't take long to built up a bank plenty big enough for most purposes.

That’s another thing I see a lot – advice to the tune of ‘set aside some money and use it only for betting. Don’t use the betting bank for anything else’. That’s a great idea – build a massive betting bank and just have it sitting there growing bigger. Don’t bother to occasionally pay yourself some money to go and buy something – oh no, that would be sacrilege. Bollocks I say – make some money then pay yourself then make some more and repeat the process ad infinitum.

I think you've misunderstood somewhere along the line. The advice is not that you shouldn't ever pull money out and spend it on yourself, but that your betting bank should be initially seeded with money that you can afford to lose, and that you shouldn't be pulling funds out if you then need to put them back in later. Do you plant a seed and then keep digging it up every few days? Leave it alone! My initial deposit on Betfair was less than £100, (which evaporated to £21.40 at one time), and while I pull funds out to pay for things like weddings and vacations, I have never put more money back in. Indeed, had that initial deposit all been lost, I would have walked away from it all. I'd spent over a year trying different ideas, and if I hadn't found something that worked after that time, then it would probably have been smart to move on. If you have an edge, the bank will build itself, and if you don't have an edge, there are better ways to put your money to work. It is rather sad to read about people waiting for pay day before they can put their next deposit into their account, and then pulling funds out to pay for incidental expenses. Just leave the betting bank alone to build up and when it reaches the point where there is more than you need in there, withdraw some, and invest it elsewhere.

Anyway, I don't mean to pick on Mr Schofield. His blog is a lot more interesting than many out there, and I get the feeling that he published the above in something of a hurry.

Wildcard

A couple of winners yesterday, with AC Milan winning at 2.22 and Roma - Catania going Over 2.5 goals before half-time. I like those quick wins. Brescia disappointed by losing 1-2 at home to Cesena though, and Football Elite came up short with Recommended Bets Bologna and Lecce both failing to win.

A limited menu this weekend with France and Germany messing around with resting and a few friendlies, while in England we have the entertaining, but not for serious betting, FA Cup 3rd Round. So that leaves Spain and Italy, and of the three La Liga games on Saturday, two are weak draws with Barcelona too short at 1.28.

I think I shall be focusing on the NFL Wildcard play-offs this weekend. Two games on Saturday and two on Sunday and the schedule means one game at a time. Liquidity should be good, which means good trading pickings.

History shows that home field advantage is often no advantage at all, and "rest regularly leads to rust". Wild Card Weekend is traditionally the most unpredictable of the three rounds that comprise each conference's tournament. Since the current four-division format was instituted in 2002, the visiting and lower-seeded team has won 14 of the 32 opening-round matchups, or roughly 44 percent. Over the three most recent seasons, exactly half (6-of-12) of the Wild Card entries prevailed on the road and advanced to the next week.

So with that in mind, here are Saturday's games:

NFC: New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are a poor team, losing 7 of their last 10 games, scraping into the post-season by virtue of playing in the weakest division, and should lose to the current champions. They are getting 10.5 points, making them the biggest home underdog in play-off history. Having said that, the Saints aren't as good as last year but at 1.22, that's a little short for a pre-game back.

AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Manning is a better QB than Sanchez, but the Jets have the advantage in the running game, rating fourth in the NFL, while the Colts are only 25th defending the run. Indianapolis are favourites at about 1.8. No pre-game play on this one, but if Manning is off his game, and the Jets are running riot, look to lay another home team. Even if the Colts go ahead, they have a habit of allowing backdoor covers if the handicap is your choice of poison. The spread is just 2.5 here, so this 'should' be the best trading game of the day.

Finally, I haven't met too many billionaires in my life, but in the summer of 1997, I got to meet, and have a casual dinner, with one of America's wealthiest men - Don Tyson, who as a billionaire, had just a little more money than I ever will. A real down to earth guy, who loved to party and game fish, and when he found out I was English, told me several back to back Essex Girl jokes. His response to "What have you been up to lately Don?" was "Drinking and f***ing, not necessarily in that order". He died yesterday aged 80, after an 'interesting', and religion free, life. He was quite a character. It still amuses me that when the bill for dinner arrived, I felt obliged to offer to pay my share.

Trading Fingerprint

A mixed bag on the picks tonight. 1 for 1 on the Over 2.5 goals bets for a net profit and a help to the PC, but Bolton Wanderers gave up a late equaliser to Wigan Athletic, so a loser there. A good night for anyone laying the favourite, with just Newcastle United and Everton winning. Contrast with Saturday when all eight favourites won!

Serie A is back after a short winter break, and no strong draws. Genoa v Lazio is a weak draw pick, but of course it is at the shortest price of all the Serie A draws for tomorrow night. Brescia at 2.1 v Cesena are my home value pick, and AC Milan (2.22) away to Cagliari look value also. Roma v Catania at 1.99 for Over 2.5 goals also. I should point out that the Over 2.5 goals tips are more for my own benefit in reducing the PC than out of any conviction that long-term they will be profitable. I'll be happy for these to break even, and I'm looking at games where essentially the Over / Under is a coin-toss but the ratings spreadsheet shows an edge.

I've had a couple of e-mails regarding circumvention of the PC, and they are appreciated, but I am a little concerned that the penalty for getting caught is rather harsh. From the Betfair forum, there was this post, which if true, is enough to scare me away from using another account, which in theory at least, would be easy enough to set up. I guess everybody has their betting / trading style, and it's not hard to imagine that Betfair have software that is sufficiently sophisticated to match the 'fingerprint' from two or more accounts.

Betfair suspends player account and debits €32,000 in premium fees
12/26/2010 12:49:50 PM

Betfair (SBR rating A) has charged a player €32,000 in premium fees. On December 2nd, the player's account was suspended. On December 15th, Betfair reopened the account after debiting the player's account for what it said was "suspicion of premium charges evasion". The player states that he has only bet in 150 markets over the last 4 months, and therefor should not have to pay the assessed fee. Betfair justified its seizure to the player by stating that he and four other accounts from his country made similar market bets. The player denies having any relationship with the other four account holders. Betfair responded to SBR's request for comment by stating the following:

Response from Betfair:

Unfortunately, as before, I am unable to comment on the specifics of any such case (though hopefully this won't lead to you to the conclusion that the players version is always true) where fraud may be an issue.

Some general points that may help you here though.

We have a premium charge that is payable by a very small proportion of our customers. Some customers may try to avoid paying the premium charge by structuring their betting in a particular way. If we find a customer has tried to do this, then we deduct the relevant premium charge from their accounts in accordance with our terms and conditions. All those liable to the premium charge are made aware of these terms and conditions.

I imagine that Betfair have based their decision on slightly more than a 'suspicion', but that aside, I think arbing is the better way to go, both using different markets within Betfair, and by using other trading accounts. Or do Betfair consider, for example, backing 0-0 on the Correct Score market, and laying No Next Goal as "Premium Charge evasion?"

It's Back

As I'd suspected it would, the latest update from the Betfair Premium Portal confirmed that I will be paying over £400 in Premium Charges this week. My Total Charges percentage dipped below the critical 20% level to 19.82%, and for the first time since March 17th last year, I get hit. Time to get serious about reducing it.

The football bets helped last night, with Blackpool failing to win, but Over 2.5 goals coming in at 2.06 for a small overall net profit, as well as adding a losing bet. For tonight, Bolton Wanderers at 1.83 look good value at home to Wigan Athletic and I'm on Everton v Tottenham Hotspur at 2.14, and Aston Villa v Sunderland 2.08 Over 2.5 goals too.

Poldhu

Three EPL games tonight and the ratings suggest three home wins, but Fulham at 2.28 v West Bromwich Albion doesn't look great value considering current form. Fulham have won just two home games all season, but they were both against teams starting with a 'W'! A compelling statistic for some maybe, but I'll pass.

At a slightly higher 2.38, Blackpool are more tempting, with form giving them a 0.83 goal superiority, but the value bet here looks Over 2.5 goals to me at 2.08. Blackpool at home are 6 for 6 on Overs, conceding in every game, and Birmingham City away are over 5 and 4 so I'm going for Blackpool and Over 2.5 goals. One concern is the drifting price on Overs, but I'm in now.

Big Home Dogs

The Atlanta Hawks duly covered the -1.5 spread this afternoon against the Los Angeles Clippers and as midnight approaches, that'll be the last activity on the account before Betfair draw their arbitrary line in the accounts and determine whether or not to apply the Premium Charge next week. How solid this midnight deadline is, I am not sure. As I wrote earlier in the week, actually last year, I had a four figure win settled at 00:07 on Monday and unless this was somehow included in the total for last week, then it looks like I will be hit despite my best anti-PC efforts.

Speaking of arbitrary lines and the NBA Handicap markets provide a nice segue into the subject of the lines in basketball, which as I have commented on before are extremely accurate.

How the point spread is set may be of interest to some. From what I can find out, a company called Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) establishes the odds for approximately 75% of the licensed sports books in Nevada, with most illegal and online books in and out of Nevada drawing their odds from here. These lines are posted at 8am Pacific Standard Time (4pm UK) on game day and can fluctuate until each game’s tip–off. Of course, on the exchanges the line stays set but the price of the line will adjust. The generally accepted assumption is that these opening betting lines are set to equalize the amount of money bet on each side of the betting line, minimizing the bookmakers’ financial risk and guaranteeing their revenue.

There are clearly some inefficencies with these lines. While the betting line is designed to balance the betting market, it does not correspond to the incentives of the teams: the teams care about wins and losses. A win is a win. There is no incentive for a team to win by anything more than one point, and though the line may be set at 13.5 for example, a team won't care if they win by 13 or 14 points, just so long as they win. You see this all the time in games - if the favourite is comfortably ahead, the game becomes far less intense. Starters are rested, the crowd gets distracted, the commentators start talking about upcoming games, and there's a general atmosphere of going through the motions. The intensity only picks up again if the underdog starts to close the gap and get within single figures, at which point the starters go back in, the crowd gets back into it, and the game resumes in earnest.

All very interesting to notice, but is there a way to profit from this?

A study of results in the NBA suggests that there is an advantage on playing the big handicaps. (Big is usually accepted as being those in excess of 12 points, while small spreads are those at 6 points or less - presumably because six represents the usual maximum from two possessions, which is the signifier for a close game). In the 18 NBA seasons up to 2007, the ratio of favourite to underdog wins was 7805:7822 (49.95%:50.05%), but when you look at the large spreads, there's an advantage in backing big 'dogs.

How big an advantage, I hear you say?

When the spread is 12.5 points or more, the 'dog covers the spread in 53.05% of all games, but teams tend to play better at home than on the road, and when we are a lot more selective, and only back big 'dogs playing at home, the numbers get very exciting. The problem is that you need to be very patient, because these opportunities don't come along every night.

Big 'dogs at home cover the spread in an astonishing 70.52% of games. Overall, the home 'dogs cover just 48.96% of the time, but for every handicap from 7 and up, home underdogs cover more than 50% of the time. Now all you need is to find the right price on the exchanges.

The Accidental Winner

I'm not very good at this PC reduction thing. Last night I placed a bet on the New Orleans Hornets giving 1.5, and another on the Washington Wizards straight up. The idea is of course that any result other than a one point win by the Hornets results in a profit. The Hornets -1.5 bet was duly matched at 1.99 but someone forgot about it, and only checked as the game was winding down. Result: The Hornets won by 11, so the error resulted in a bigger win than should have been the case. Not quite the billion illustrated though, but it all helps.

There is one game today that fits the 1.5 bill, although Betfair have not yet put up the handicap markets for the Toronto v Boston and Cleveland v Dallas games. The Atlanta Hawks are -1.5 v the Los Angeles Clippers and are about 2.0. Straight up, the Clippers are backable at around 2.1.

Overall, New Years Day was a good one, but it could have been so much better. I layed a sizeable bet at 1.15 in the College Football Rose Bowl game between the Horned Frogs of TCU and the Wisconsin Badgers with TCU up by eight points and Wisconsin driving. Eight points is a touchdown and the two-point conversion, and Wisconsin did score the touchdown. Unfortunately, they couldn't convert the two point try and I was left with a four figure green on the losing team and a two figure loss on the winning team - a little frustrating but the 1.15 lay was a value bet and I'll be looking for more similar bets during the next few days as College Football ends its season. Liquidity picks up during the Bowl games, and if you stay patient, opoortunites do pop up.

No football bets of my own today, but I did follow Football Elite with a punt on Wigan (DNB) to beat Newcastle United. A 0-1 loss meant that both FE and Drawmaster lost on this game.

A word of warning before anyone goes crazy on the final week of the regular NFL season. This final week can be a minefield, with play-off bound and eliminated teams both resting players, albeit for different reasons. As the GoldSheet says:

Recent history provides some interesting Week 17 numbers; since 2007, favorites have outperformed the dogs each season in final weekend action, with a cumulative 27-18 mark vs. the line. Which is somewhat illuminating, as spreads in the final week often become inflated because of the pre-announced personnel changes (often involving backup QBs), and squads such as last year's Buffalo end up laying points to teams they'd normally not be favored against in a normal regular-season week. As always, it's a good idea to handicap these games individually, not collectively.

No pre-game punts for me, but I'll probably get involved in-play when the attitudes and personnel for the teams is known. As the article said, some of these final week games resemble the pre-season exhibition games, and in the NFL, teams benefit from losing in that not only do they receive a weaker schedule the following season, but they also move up the draft ladder - no draft lottery such as the NBA has.

Gold All Over

No joy for the strong draw today, with Stoke City defeating Everton, but winners in the other two recommendations with West Ham United winning at 2.1 and Sunderland at 1.99. A good start to the new year.

Football Elite were also on Sunderland, continuing their good run, and Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster system also picked the Stoke City v Everton game. They also had Birmingham City v Arsenal and tomorrow's Wigan Athletic v Newcastle United.

A good day for favourites in the Premier League today, with all eight winning. It augurs well for Chelsea and Wigan tomorrow.

The Premium Charge avoidance strategy came a cropper when Arsenal opened the scoring at Birmingham before I had layed off on the Next Goal market the 0-0 backed on the Correct Score market. No serious damage though, but a 0-0 in one of these games would be nice!

Three years ago today, I started the year with a £5,105.02 loss. I had finished 2006 on a strong note, and over-confidence got the better of me as I had my worst day ever on the exchanges. It was a good lesson though, if expensive, and after that day, any New Year's Day had better be relatively good!

I'm not sure yet what format to use, but for 2011 I am going to track the value bets I put out on here, along with the results from Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks and Football Elite's Recommended Bets. The 'sister' blog is Gold All Over and it is intended solely to be the boring P&L blog based on 1 unit bets and not including commission. I may get bored with it, but we'll see how it goes.

Top / Bottom 2010

Just for the heck of it, at the end of 2010, the following are the top and bottom three teams in each League that I track. Not too many surprises, and where the favourite isn't the top rated team, they're not usually far behind (e.g Borussia Dortmund, Olympique Lyon, Chesterfield, Crawley Town, Dunfermline Athletic). Something to look back on at the end of the season.

EPL: Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal / Wolverhapmton Wanderers, West Bromwich Albion, Wigan Athletic.

Serie A: AC Milan, Internazionale, Juventus / Bari, Cesena, Lecce.

La Liga: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Valencia / Levante, Sporting de Gijon, Malaga.

Ligue 1: Olympique Marseille, Lille, Olympique Lyon / Lens, Caen, Arles-Avignon.

Bundesliga: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen / Koln, St Pauli, Borussia Moenchengladbach.

Championship: Queens Park Rangers, Portsmouth, Nottingham Forest / Crystal Palace, Scunthorpe United, Preston North End.

League One: Brighton and Hove Albion, Southampton, Sheffield Wednesday / Dagenham and Redbridge, Yeovil Town, Walsall.

League Two: Wycombe Wanderers, Port Vale, Torquay United / Barnet, Lincoln City, Hereford United.

Blue Square Premier: Luton Town, Crawley Town, York City / Hayes and Yeading United, Histon, Altrincham.

The top and bottom teams in Scotland are Rangers / Aberdeen; Falkirk / Stirling Albion; Ayr United / Dumbarton; Annan Athletic / East Stirlingshire.

Hello 2011

A new year, but hopefully the new one will continue as the old one ended. December was my third best month ever, behind only the Januarys of 2008 and 2009. On a daily average, it drops to fourth place behind February of 2009, but by any measure it was a stellar month, made all the more exciting because of the relatively disappointing eight months or so that preceded it. The Benford number for December was a rare 9 for those interested in these things.

The last three Januarys have all been very profitable with football so the pressure is on to make it four in a row. Why is January so profitable? Football is in full swing, as is the NBA. American Football reaches it's climax in both the College and NFL formats, and golf and tennis both get underway again. The profits from football are especially pleasing these days. It was a tough nut to crack, but it does seem that some good progress is being made, with more ideas for the year ahead.

February sees the tenth cricket World Cup, and the betting is wide open. India are 4.6 favourites, followed by four teams at 6.6/6.8 - Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Ashes holders England.

No big summer football tournament this year, but there's another World Cup in 2011, with Rugby Union's seventh edition being hosted by New Zealand, favourites at around evens.

As a year, betting wise 2010 was nothing special, being the worst year since I started taking it seriously in 2005 apart from 2007, but how you finish is all important. A 1-1 draw in football is a much different result if you equalise in the last minute as opposed to if you give that goal up in the 5th minute of stoppage time to a penalty after leading for most of the game (yes, I am talking about Crystal Palace at Bristol City last week, month, year) but at least they are still in business. Their future was looking extremely precarious for a time there.

The strong finsih to the year means I am almost certain to be back in the Premium Charge zone but armed with a new spreadsheet, I have a few ideas to at least reduce it, if not avoid it altogether. I tried the tactic of backing the favourite on the handicap and the underdog on the Match Odds market last night, and haven't been caught yet, but I do limit this to the +1.5 or +2.5 basketball markets to reduce the risk. The trouble is that these lines are generally very accurate, which makes me nervous, so I end up trading the Match Odds market to try and cover the gap.

The blog saw a record 437 posts this year - where does he find the time? The average lifespan for betting blogs sometimes seems to be about two months, so this is one of the elder statesmen of the betting blog world. Although some days there's just nothing that springs to mind to write about, I still enjoy taking a few minutes out to post something most days. The number of hits per day is currently around 300, and I've had some nice compliments so I must be doing something right. I should hit the 1,000 posts mark this year, and 300,000 visitors by year's end isn't beyond the realm of possibility. I received a couple of books for Xmas (thanks kids) that may provide some inspiration, although I forgot to take any to the gym with me yesterday, so I was forced to read the small print on the treadmill. I noticed a warning, which said something along the lines of "Stop exercising if you feel short of breath". Er, isn't that kind of the point?

If you're finding value, you won't need luck, but it helps. Be lucky in 2011.

Ace Puzzle

Courtesy of "Betting The Odds - The Hidden Mathematics Of Sport" by Rob Eastway and John Haigh, comes this little puzzle - a doddle for sharp-minded readers I'm sure.

You are at home with the TV in the background and the sound turned down. You notice that Andy Roddick is in the middle of a match with Andy Murray and Roddick is serving. He serves an ace, and goes on to serve five more consecutive aces.

At this point you turn the sound up, to hear that Murray currently leads the match. What is the match score at this point - in sets and games?

A Happy and Winning New Year to all.