The Potential Cost of Easy

While not yet in the league of Morgan Housel, at least in my opinion, Nick Maggiulli who writes the of dollars and data website has some interesting posts.

His latest hit close to home, although I'm a little older than the subject (28) of the original Reddit post (above), and I can't claim do have done as little as 50 hours "real work" in the last 6 years. Heck, I've probably done that many in just the past six months, although the use of the term "real work" is subjective.

With the exception of a few work trips, for almost two years I've "worked" from home with a typical day requiring me to join two or three Zoom meetings, quite often as an observer rather than as a participant, and either delete or file away some emails. (Unlike some people, I like an empty Inbox).

Some months are busier than others of course, but even on a fairly busy day, any more than four or five hours of work is a rarity.

Last night, before I saw this article, I checked my calendar to see what awaited me today, and jokingly told my wife that I had to work from 9am to 11am with only 30 minutes for lunch. But that's really how it's been for a while now. (One of those 30 minute meetings was postponed, so I did get my lunch hour after all).

While I haven't "automated" my job like the protagonist of the story, I have put people under me who take care of almost everything, meaning that I only need to get involved if there are any escalations or my boss needs something, and with several peers and, say it quietly, mostly stable applications, his attention is not usually focused on me. 

As I'm at the end of my career rather than at the start of it, using my free time on non-career activities doesn't have the same potential hard consequences that Maggiulli talks about in his article.

Personally, I've get a head start on some of the activities planned for retirement, or indeed planning retirement given the amount of books and articles I've read on the subject! Travel beyond a few miles from home isn't a realistic option right now, given the challenges of navigating the rules around COVID and never knowing when the boss may need something, but reading and research and updating various spreadsheets can be quite time consuming. These profitable sports investment strategies didn't just throw themselves at me.   

Anyway, here is the post in full, The High Cost of an Easy Job - click on the link for the original:

I recently saw this Reddit post about a guy who automated his job and collected a paycheck for 6 years while doing basically no work. Sounds like a nice gig, right? Who wouldn’t want to get paid to do as little as possible? Who wouldn’t want to make money while browsing the internet or playing video games all day?

I can see the appeal. Compared to putting in 70+ hour weeks or working a job that you hate, this is a far better situation. But, most people who idealize this lifestyle probably haven’t considered the costs associated with it. You might be thinking, “What costs? How could getting paid to not work be a bad thing?”

Because, when you get paid to do very little, you end up giving up two of the most important things in your life—your time and your purpose. Ex-U.S. President Richard Nixon summarized this idea beautifully in this interview:

The unhappiest people of the world are those in the international watering places like the south coast of France, and Newport, and Palm Springs, and Palm Beach. Going to parties every night. Playing golf every afternoon, then bridge. Drinking too much. Talking too much. Thinking too little. Retired. No purpose.

As so, while I know there are those who would totally disagree with this and say, “Gee, if I could just be a millionaire that would be the most wonderful thing. If I could just not have to work everyday. If I could just be out fishing or hunting or playing golf or traveling, that would be the most wonderful life in the world.”

They don’t know life. Because what makes life mean something is purpose. A goal. The battle. The struggle. Even if you don’t win it.

Unfortunately, our society has glorified leisure for so long that we’ve lost our way. This is why some people said that the guy who automated his job to collect a paycheck had “won the game.” But no, he didn’t win the game. He may have won the battle, but he surely lost the war. After six years of doing nothing at his company, he was fired and immediately experienced an existential crisis about his future.

Where did he go wrong? It wasn’t when he automated his job. That’s actually admirable and I support it. No, he went wrong with how he spent his free time after automating it. Because you can spend your time doing something that provides you with deep satisfaction or you can waste it in endless entertainment. I know what it feels like to do both.

From age 22-27 I spent far too much time on the latter. Whether it was wasting time on social media/YouTube (while rarely contributing to these platforms) or getting drunk at parties, I was on a leisure binge. While I don’t regret hanging out with people or learning stuff on YouTube, I know I could have used my time more efficiently.

I only know this because of how I’ve used my time since turning 27. It only took five years to get on a completely different path. This made me realize something—it’s not about how much time you have, but how you use it. It reminds me of this quote from On The Shortness of Life by the Stoic philosopher Seneca:

It’s not that we have a short time to live, but we waste a lot of it. Life is long enough, and a sufficiently generous amount has been given to us for the highest achievements if it were all well invested.

The more I write about investing, the more I end up talking about time. Because everything in investing, ultimately, leads back to time. A decision you make today could have a huge impact on your future. That’s what compounding is all about—decisions and how they move through time.

Compounding also explains why you shouldn’t settle for a nice paycheck from an easy job. Because every second you spend doing something that you don’t find fulfilling is another second you aren’t doing something that you do find fulfilling. It’s another second without challenge, without drive, and without purpose.

Once you understand this, it completely changes how you look at the world. You quickly realize that life isn’t about maximizing reward while minimizing effort. It’s about finding what you like to do, and doing it for as long as you can. Much like investing, it’s all about staying in the game.

Unfortunately, so many people don’t. Benjamin Franklin said it best:

I’ve seen men die at the age of 25, yet buried at the age of 75.

Don’t be one of them. Don’t let the world prevent you from doing what you were meant to do, from becoming who you were meant to become.

This is easier said than done. Trust me, I know. Because along the way there will be plenty of things to tempt you off the path. There will be easy outs, get rich quick schemes, and an endless array of mindless entertainment. There will be cheap dopamine and shortcuts for every occasion. Why do work when you can not work, right? Why build something when you could not build it? The choice seems obvious, doesn’t it?

But the easy choices come with hard consequences…later. They show up where you might not expect them. With regret. With nostalgia. With sadness. The easy way out always has hidden costs. The question is: are you willing to pay them?

Thank you for reading!

Opinions and Reactions Galore

A veritable feast of comments related to my two most recent posts, and in time sequential order, here they are.

First up was AT on the Killer Villa post, pointing out that:

Hey mate the Betty Blogger link is broken. Would love to read it!

Well that's an easy one to fix, and I'm glad someone pointed it out. The link is now correct, but to pre-empt any disappointment, I should caution that the link was to Betty's Twitter feed and not specifically to his (her?) research into the other major leagues in Europe which I believe hasn't been publicly shared. But despite his unfortunate choice of football club, he's a decent chap so a polite request might work.

Next up on the same post, and my old friend Dr Tsouts commented:

I believe there are more than one readers who are betting on draws, at least two including me! I also started to track draws in Serie B and top 2 Spain leagues. There are some Twitter accounts with draw picks and one of them also suggests the 1-1 correct score with good returns.

Again, here is the Twitter link for the good doctor and if you want further details on Serie B or the Spanish divisions, or indeed want to follow some of these Draw suggesting accounts, you can always ask. 

I haven't looked at Serie B for a long time. A league where the Draw can be odds-on towards the end of a season makes me a little uncomfortable. As for La Liga, this comment supports Betty's findings, but I can't vouch for the Segunda División claim.

Finally, while apples are supposed to keep such professionals away, my post on Comparing Apples had the opposite effect with the Dr. showing up again, this time to say about the NFL Small Road 'Dogs and the variations in ROI to be expected:

Currently with a 44-24 record for me and a ROI almost 29% I am happy to leave it here and wait for next season! But this is not the whole picture. I also played straight wins with a record 21-19-1 (there was one tie, right?) and an extraordinary 39% ROI! Thanks Cassini!

Music to my ears! An unsolicited, but nevertheless very welcome, independent verification of the numbers. If the career in medicine doesn't work out, might I suggest a move to auditing, although I'm not understanding the SU record of 21-19-1. The 68 Small Road 'Dogs went 37-31 straight up, and I'm not seeing where the 41 selections come from.

Nevertheless, it's very pleasing to hear / read that someone is making money from this system.  

Comparing Apples

It was a rough weekend for Road teams in the NFL Wildcard Weekend matches, with only one of the six teams winning or covering (San Francisco 49ers who did both). If you are playing the Small Road 'Dogs in the playoffs, then at least if you followed my advice to stick to the NFC you had this winner and just the one loss, so minimal damage. As I've mentioned before, playoffs are a different beast to regular season games, and with far less data, so caution is advised.

Wildcard games are historically good for road teams, with a record since 2001 of 48-33-5, before this season and 21-13 for those in the Small 'Dog range. 

We have another slate of matches next weekend with the four Divisional Round matches. All four matches currently look like they may be Small Road 'Dogs, with the NFC games being the Green Bay Packers v San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Los Angeles Rams (+3) games. The Packers have the additional advantage of not playing this past weekend, reward for the best regular season record in their Conference.

Historically Division games aren't great for Road teams with a 42-41-1 record against the spread which isn't profitable. For matched in the Small 'Dogs range, the record is even worse at 13-14-1. 

The AFC games are the rested Tennessee Titans v Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) and Kansas City Chiefs v Buffalo Bills (+2.5).

Currently all four matches are Small Road 'Dog qualifiers, but two are just a half point move away from exclusion.

It's also important to note that after being consistent from 2002 to 2019, the NFL format has changed for the last two seasons with the playoffs expanding last season, and this season with the addition of a regular season Week 17, and these changes make it questionable whether we are comparing apples with apples. Small changes can sometimes have unforeseen consequences.  

As I write this, the stock markets are a sea of red, with only $TSLA presenting a glimmer of hope as it flirts with being positive on the day. 

As I mentioned last week Tesla has scheduled its Q4 earnings call for next Wednesday, January 26th.

One barrier to an even higher Tesla stock price is that some mutual funds can only buy a company if its credit rating is at least "investment grade". 

The importance of a company's credit rating was seen when Tesla was given a BB+ rating in October last year, and the stock jumped 21.6% in three days. 

If the Q4 results are as expected, (cash flow, low debt, strong EBITDA margins > 18%), it is possible that in February, S&P Global Ratings may raise the rating to "Investment" grade (BBB-). 

The 18% figure is currently easily being beaten, and interesting that Tesla is the only $1 trillion company that is currently "junk" rated!  

By way of comparison, $AAPL (Apple) is rated AAA so there is still plenty of room for improvement.  

Killer Villa

Possibly some very good news this afternoon, with delek reporting that:

as per their email seems like Killersports is back with full functionality

A quick look at their site and it does appear that at least some of my old queries are now working, though not all. Parameters for the NFL, where most of my sports investment attention has been this weekend, such as Division and Playoffs are two obvious ones, so as with the replacement gimmethedog site it's proceed with caution, but definitely good news. 

The 'official' results for the NFL's Small Road 'Dogs System are also slightly improved as the Killer Sports record is 44-24 compared with that of gimmethedog which had a record of 43-26. 

Differences are to be expected since lines vary from book to book and determining the line to record against is often subjective. In the same way that each of us has our own inflation rate, which may or may not be close to the 'official' inflation rate, every person playing this system would likely have had a different precise outcome, though there is no doubt that everyone would have been nicely in profit. 

The differences between the two sources for the season are shown below:

The EPL Draw System had one selection and one winner this weekend, with Aston Villa and Manchester United playing to a 2:2 finish. At least one reader (a Manchester United fan who must have had mixed feelings about the Villa comeback) was on this one, and again, depending on where and when you source your prices for this system, this was either a "Toss-Up" selection or a "Close" selection. The 'official' results use the Pinnacle Closing price as recorded by Football Data, but when I ran the numbers on Saturday, this was a Toss-Up although the official category is "Close". 

This brings the ROI on these selections to 40%, which exceeds the previous best season of 2012-13 but still almost half of the season to go. 

Also a record so far for the Toss-Ups, so hoping more than just one of you are riding these this season.

I hope Betty Blogger won't mind me revealing that he's been doing some work looking at the Draw in other top leagues, with some interesting findings, especially in La Liga. 

One reader wrote to me, I shan't use his name a wrote an e-mail rather than posted a comment, saying:

Hi, I've been reading your blog for a long time. Have you ever wondered what the impact of a draw in a match is related to the fact that it tied in the previous match? I noticed or it seems to me that sometimes a draw occurs more often than there was a draw in the previous game. What do you think about it.

I'm not sure if this thought refers to the idea that we should take into account the previous season's result of the game between two teams, or whether it's that we should look at the previous game for each team. I think it's probably the former, but either way, I don't believe there's any evidence that a Draw has any predictive value. As I've written before, clubs change from week to week, never mind season to season, with managers, playing styles, players / injuries as well as external factors such as weather and how critical the game is to both sides. Some people put a lot of weight into past results but I'm highly sceptical to say the least. Unfortunately finding an edge isn't this easy.

It was a busy weekend, as I had another e-mail, this one from Milan.

Hello!

I was searching for some articles about arbitrage today and I came across this page https://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2015/03/place-your-bets-plural.html

I noticed that you linked to one of my favorite articles about arbitrage
betting.

I just wanted to give you a heads up that I created a similar article.

It’s like arbitrage betting, but more through and up to date:

https://www.winmakingsters.com/sport-arbitrage-betting/

It might be worth a mention on your page.

Either way, keep up the awesome work!

Cheers, Milan from WinMakingsters!

If arbitrage is your thing, and good luck keeping your accounts open if you're doing this, it looks like Milan has taken some time to create a decent looking page, so check it out.

The financial markets in the US are closed today for the Martin Luther King Day holiday, which always means plenty of NBA games, but the FTSE and Nikkei had solid gains which is a promising sign. I'm currently down overall by 2.01% for the year, not quite the worst January on record which was -2.44% in 2016 but in actual money the worst ever. Onwards and upwards.   

Small Road 'Dogs 2021

The regular NFL season came to an end on Sunday with a dramatic finale to the season which saved the sportsbooks several million dollars, possibly as much as a billion. For those who don't know, the Sunday Night game was Las Vegas Raiders v San Diego Chargers, two AFC West teams with both in with a shot at making the playoffs.

Going into Sunday, a win for the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Indianapolis Colts would have meant that a tie, a fairly rare occurrence in the NFL, would have seen both teams qualify. The Jaguars won easily earlier in the day and conspiracy theories sprang up including the idea that both teams would take a knee for 70 minutes, and the tie, typically around 60-1, was backed down to 14-1.

After the Chargers had come back from 15 points down in the fourth quarter, the game was indeed tied at the end of regulation, but a 47 yard field goal with a few seconds of overtime remaining broke a few hearts, including those of punters and Chargers fans, which incidentally used to include my wife but she's been distancing herself from them after their move from San Diego.

The question on most readers' minds is no doubt, how did the Small Road 'Dogs fare this season? Well, hopefully some of you were on the money train with these selections this season, as for the 14th time in the last 16 seasons, they again finished the season in profit. In fact, the 43-26 record this season was the best return since 2006, and the Divisional subset of selections was also a winner with an 18-8 record, the best since 2007. 

There were 69 selections with the average number of selections per season coming into 2021 being 71, so the extra round of matches was inconsequential. 

We actually missed a few winners by drawing the line at those 'Dogs getting 5.5 points because at the +6 level, all seven qualifiers won. With no losing seasons since 2010 at this line, it's probably time to update the parameters and include the +6 teams.

While there are relatively few playoff matches compared to regular season games, the Small 'Dog strategy continues to work reasonably well in these games with an overall 38-32-1 record since the expansion to 32 teams, but important to note that with the NFC having a 23-14-1 record in this time, the AFC record is a losing one.

With the FA Cup last weekend, no updates to the EPL Draw System, and I'm struggling to get motivated to look further into the NBA Totals right now. In part this is no doubt due to the passing of KillerSports and the results from gimmethedog being unreliable. 

The markets have been a little rocky in the early stages of the year, but overall I'm down just 0.24% which isn't great of course, but could have been a lot worse with the concerns about Omicron, inflation, and the great resignation.  

The biggest disappointment so far has been my company's discounted share purchase scheme which offers a 10% discount on the closing price every six months. While it was enjoyable at the time, December's strong finish to the year combined with a mild plunge in price in the first week of this year meant that the discounted purchase price (based on 31 Dec) wasn't much of a discount at all by the time the shares were purchased (6 Jan) and in my account. The price has recovered a little this week and I hold onto these for the long term anyway, so no real harm done.   

Tesla (+4.7% YTD) has scheduled its Q4 and 2021 earnings call for Wednesday, January 26 which should lead to some volatility, but again, I'm not in a hurry to offload these shares anytime soon. 

Stand Down

There's an old maxim that states "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is" and this is the case with the Overs "discovery" mentioned in my last post.

So hold your horses if you are thinking of diving into Overs in NBA matches where, in their previous games, the "Road team went Under and the Home team went Over."

It turns out that the displayed 88.5% figure was indeed too good to be true, with the same query now returning a more modest 61-48-2 record (56%) in favour of the Unders.

The site gimmethedog which replaced the usually reliable killersports site does caution that:

So it's back to the drawing board for NBA totals, and the reason for the apparent inefficiency I was puzzled about was simply a software bug somewhere. Perhaps it is now fixed, but proceed with care if using this site is certainly good advice.

It's also unfortunate that the NHL page at this site is also not yet up and running, but beggars can't be choosers.

After a good start to the year, the markets have dipped on the release of the minutes from December's joint "Fed" (Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) meeting which hinted that a rise in interest rates could come as soon as March.

It's a little odd that the minutes are not released for three weeks, but that they are concerned about inflation can perhaps be seen by the fact that the word is mentioned 75 times in the 14 pages of minutes! 

It could be a volatile year, with seven of my individual stocks declining (6) or increasing (1) by more than 2% yesterday. Thank you Pfizer. Saving lives and, for now at least, my January spreadsheet which is up by just 0.09% for the month / quarter / year to date. 

With the futures red for tomorrow, I may defer updating prices for a few days. I find I'm much keener to do this on an up day than a down day.

New Year, Same Old Tesla

There were three selections for the EPL Draw Systems this weekend, with the hottest bet of the season so far - Chelsea v Liverpool - a winner. 

Brentford v Aston Villa and Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion were the two losing selections, but calendar year 2022 is off to a profitable start, and the 2021-22 season ROIs are now up to 33.5% (Close) and 66.7% (Toss-Up).

No winners in the NFL this weekend for the Small Road Dogs, but with only one selection (Miami Dolphins +3), not too much damage done to the season's record which now stands at 40-25, with an ROI of 20.1%.

I commented in my last post of 2021 that:

In the NBA the edge for Unders on Totals of 212.5 or higher seems to have faded somewhat while I was away but still up on the season with a gain of 25.3 points and an ROI of 6.8%. With December looking to be a losing month though, I need to take a look at the data before I resume betting on these.

Although backing Unders on Totals greater than 212.5 is still profitable for the season with a 57.2% winning record, at the time I left in early December this figure was 60%. 

I think I'll sit these bets out for the time being and play the Overs in matches where the last game for the Road team went Under, but for the Home team went Over. 

Currently this "system" has an 88.5% winning record (69-9), and a 23 game winning streak since December 8th, though those numbers will soon be updated to 88.6% and 24 as the Charlotte Hornets v Washington Wizards game went over last night. 

While the market is prone to recency bias, I'm struggling to find a rationale for this new inefficiency but I thought it might be of interest to some of you. In matches where both teams are coming off one day of rest, the percentage of Overs is 90.6%, a 29-3 record for the season.

Of much more significance to my bottom line was Tesla's move today, rising more than 13.5% on the first trading day of the year.

This (13.5%, not my total gain on this stock) wouldn't be a terrible return for a full year for many stocks, but Tesla has a history of double digit percentage moves with @Bespoke informing us that:

Over the last two years, Tesla has had more one day moves of at least 10% (29) than bitcoin (17)

and that:

Tesla's average daily move over the last 2 years has been +/-3.3% compared to +/-2.7% for bitcoin.

It's certainly a great start to the year, even though the UK markets were closed, and there could be more for Tesla.:

Goodbye 2021 (2)

A New Year, and an exciting one for those of us who love numbers as 2022 is not only a harshad number but also a sphenic number. 

The enormity of this moment can be measured by the fact that this is only the second time this has occurred in my lifetime, the first being 2001, a year which marked the start of the current century and millennium despite most people celebrating the event a year prematurely. 

It will also be the last occasion my lifetime that the year is both a harshad and a sphenic number, as the next occurrence isn't until 2085. 

Harshad is a Sanskrit word which means 'joy-giver' and hopefully the year will live up to its categorisation and do just that.

As for the year just gone, much of what I wrote in my review of 2020 a year ago remains true. 

My job isn't really work these days. It's all meetings and management and if I can do it full-time from home, and by full-time I often mean for two to three hours a day, then I might as well hang in there until the next bonus and stock options are doled out at least, which is next month. Were my job hacking away at a coal face, my attitude to retirement might be a little different.

I am still working, with retirement ever closer, but motivation to pull the trigger very much tempered by the fact that I do very little actual work, most of the work I do is from home, and with the pandemic still with us, travel isn't yet the pleasurable experience it should be. 

In contrast to 2020 which saw a holiday to South Africa, two promotions in the space of three months, the death of a parent and the start of a pandemic, 2021 was much less dramatic. No new countries visited, no promotions, no deaths of anyone close to me, and the pandemic still impacting, not daily life so much, but certainly impacting making definite plans.

I did break my leg in three places in January though, and despite missing two months of the year as it healed, was still able to reach my goal of 1,000 miles on foot for the year. Clearly the goal was too easy, and I've bumped it up to 1,200 miles for this go round. 

As has probably been evident from the content of my blog, the importance of sports betting has continued to decline. I still enjoy the challenge of beating the markets, but the financial impact to the bottom line is now miniscule compared to that from my financial investments.

While it is somewhat vulgar to talk in real terms, my net worth increased last year by 32.9%, the second highest since I began tracking such things, though of course in real terms by far the best year ever. 

The S&P 500 Index I may have mentioned a few times had its third consecutive year of double digit gains (26.9%), and again outperformed the FTSE although at least this index was up this year by 14.3%.

The main driver for me was the success of my employer, with the RSUs and Stock Options in my company becoming more valuable as the share price increased by 45%, as well as the shares I already own. Whether or not it is wise to have 17% of my net worth tied up in one company is debatable, but their record since 2008 (right) is impressive. I'll re-assess after the next round of bonuses, stock options and RSUs next month which may be followed by a discussion about a severance agreement, but we'll see. 

Tesla climbed another 49.8% last year after being flat up until August and property valuations were up 41%. My venture into Bitcoin hasn't been a success so far, and Boeing lost a little last year, but overall a bumper year, and one unlikely to repeat itself though these are unusual times. 

Of course the stock market will crash at some point, but predictions have been out there for at least eleven years now, and if you'd moved to cash at that time, I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be too happy. Here are some headlines over the years, and the actual numbers since 2009:

As for sports, the EPL Draw results for calendar year 2021 were ROIs of 31% for Toss-Ups with another small loss for Close selections, -0.02%. I'm not sure it makes much sense to look at calendar year results for a seasonal sport such as football, but I did it last year though will not repeat this moving forward. 

The strategy of backing the Draw in major International tournament elimination matches was again profitable in this year's Euro 2020 and Copa America tournaments, with ROIs of 91% and 32% respectively, though from a small number of matches. 

2022 sees the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations hosted by Cameroon which kicks off in just a few days with 24 teams which means 15 elimination matches with the first on January 23rd. (The Third place play-off isn't an elimination match). 

With prices going back to 2008 and encompassing seven tournaments, the ROI for all matches is 10%, but for those matches with no team having a greater than 50% win probability (after removing the overround), the ROI increases to 19%. 

These numbers may not be as strong as those for the Euros, Copas and World Cups, but it is still well worth the small amount of time required to participate.

Later in the year of course, we have the 2022 World Cup, though we have to wait until December for the elimination games at this event. The two-leg qualification play-offs may offer an edge, with the Draw profitable over the eight European matches last time around, and up 7% overall on the 27 matches since 2005 for which I have prices. Arguably this number might well be higher given that in 2009 only one of eight games saw more than one goal scored, but only one finished 0:0. Only seven of the 27 games resulted in wins for Over 2.5 goals. 

Spreadsheet Love

The above Twitter account is clearly not a follower of this blog, but sadly is likely representative of the majority of punters out there. Sports betting isn't the easy road to riches that it is often claimed to be, but for those with discipline and the right analytical skills, it can still be a lucrative hobby.

My daughter gave me "The Retirement Handbook" by Ted Heybridge for Xmas, which included the advice to "learn to love spreadsheets." I think I may be ahead of the game in this category, especially when it comes to the encouragement regarding financial spreadsheets to "check this regularly, perhaps on a set day of the month."

Day? Unless I'm away from home, I check / update it on almost hourly basis! Perhaps a slight exaggeration, but I do tend to monitor things a little closer than is generally considered healthy, a habit that I should perhaps consider for addition to my list of 2022 resolutions, which otherwise looks remarkably similar to my goals for 2021, 2020 and just about every year since becoming an adult - using the legal definition since acting like a grown up seems to continue to elude me. 

My three weeks away is now at an end, a trip encompassing events including, but not limited to, the internment of my Mother's ashes in north Devon, several days at my sister's farmhouse in rural Kent, a stay at my son's new home in West Sussex and the rather depressing task of clearing out the family home of 66 years as my Dad now needs full time care and is in a care home. Visits to see him were paused due to staff members testing positive for COVID, and the Disney on Ice spectacular at the O2 was cancelled on the morning of the show although as this was grandad's treat paid for back in August, the refund will come in handy, even if it won't hit the books until next year. A first ever visit to Bluewater was the replacement activity with ice skating an acceptable substitute activity for the granddaughters even if the funfair was ridiculously expensive! 

We still have a few more hours of trading before the year end numbers are in, but barring an October 19th, 1987 scenario, December, Q4, H2 and 2021 should all be nicely in profit. The US Markets will also be open on Monday so no New Year Holiday over there due to the rule:

that the exchange will be closed either Friday or the following Monday if the holiday falls on a weekend, unless “unusual business conditions exist, such as the ending of a monthly or yearly accounting period.”

With December 31st obviously the end of a month, quarter and a year, there is no respite for traders there and a weekend to update my numbers is an added bonus. For those following my advice to invest in the S&P 500 over the FTSE, another win for the former makes it five years in a row and 12 "wins" in the last 13 years. I'll have the precise numbers some time over the weekend.

The EPL Draw System was very quiet while I was away, with only one match qualifying as "Close" which was the Brentford v Watford game on December 10th, won 2:1 by the home team thanks to a 96th minute penalty. This match was also a Toss-Up selection, and the ROIs for the 2021-22 season to date are now 79.7% for the Toss-Ups and 35% for the Close selections. Several matches were postponed and the league table currently looks like those from my youth, where a difference of several games in the 'Played' column between clubs was par for the course. Results for the Toss-Up selections at the turn of the year are as shown here:

My Crystal Palace have certainly played their part so far, and a notable lack of Big 6 clubs featuring in the selections. Only Nine of the 60 clubs selected in the "Close" category have been Big 6 clubs. 

Another reason why there were so few selections is that the average "difference" in December's 52 matches was 65.7%, a much higher number than the 52.3% for the rest of the season, and 34 matches had an odds-on favourite.

In the NFL, Small Road Dogs are now 40-24, an ROI of 22%, with two more weeks of the regular season remaining.

In the NBA the edge for Unders on Totals of 212.5 or higher seems to have faded somewhat while I was away but still up on the season with a gain of 25.3 points and an ROI of 6.8%. With December looking to be a losing month though, I need to take a look at the data before I resume betting on these.  

A Happy New Year to all of you as this blog enters its 15th year with the next post, a summary of 2021 and a look ahead. Stay safe, and take care tonight.  

Goodbye 2021

Apologies for the lack of posts, and things are only going to get worse as I prepare to be away for three weeks for the Xmas period.

The EPL Draw System continues to perform well this season with twelve winners from 29 selections, and an ROI of 39.6%, while for the more selective "Toss Up" selections the numbers are six winners from ten selections and an ROI of 98%.

Since 2000-01, the "Toss-Up" ROI is now at 9.5% from 570 matches and the "Close" ROI is 7.8% from 1642 matches. 

In the NFL, the Small Road Dogs are now 40-20 for the season through 13 weeks, and almost certainly the 14th profitable season from the last 16.

In the NBA, backing Unders in matches with totals above 212.5 is currently winning at 57.7% for the season, but just 52.8% since the start of November. 

My next post will probably be in the New Year, so I'll skip the end of month updates that no one is interested in anyway, and have an end of year summary instead. At a high level, November was a losing month but to keep things in perspective, losses were less than 20% of October's gains, and with December nicely in profit to date, overall it should be a great year. Hopefully Elon Musk finishes selling his stock soon and the Tesla price remains close to its current level.

Merry Xmas and / or Happy Holidays. Stay safe, be lucky and all being well I'll be back in 2022. 

Reading Between The Lines

Thanks to the GimmeTheDog site, it's once again an easy query that can verify the results for the NFL Small Road Dogs system on a Monday or Tuesday morning.

While the weekend just passed saw a small loss with the four selections going 2-2, the overall record for the season after ten weeks is a very solid 30-15 with the ROI over 30% and currently the highest for any season since the NFL went to a 32 team format in 2002:

As you might suspect, I track the results of each specific line, and with five and a half seasons since the extra point rule change made prior to the 2015 season, I thought some of you might be interested in how that rule change has affected the point spreads.

Prior to 2015, the profit was overall from the Road Dogs getting 3 and 3.5 points. The 'twos' were slightly profitable, while the 'fours' and 'fives' had a winning record, but not by enough to cover the vig.

Since 2015, the 'twos' have become losers, the 'threes' have become even more profitable, the 'fours' are in the 'profitable but hardly worth bothering with' category, but the biggest difference is in the 'fives' where the winning percentage is up hugely to 59.5%. 

Five has become a pivotal number given that a team scoring a touchdown to lead by five is now incentivised to go for two points and lead by seven (rather than six) while similarly a team scoring a touchdown to come within five should go for two to reduce the deficit to a field goal rather than four points. Wins by five points have jumped as shown in this graphic from covers.com:

Another comment from schnakenpopanz who pointed me to the gimmethedog site, writing:

Hello again, thx for the citation of my comment. Another part which is very interesting to me: The direct influence of officiating in the NBA this season. As mentioned here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/nba-rule-changes-2021-explained-referees-will-no-longer-reward-abnormal-moves-from-foul-hunting-stars/ar-AAPaKRa 

How does this translate to the betting market and odds/lines/totals? If the lines of gimmethedog are correct. Blindly betting unders are 120-76. 2020 over was 581-575 for Overs. 2019 575-543 for Overs. So the Market AND the bookies hasn't transformed yet to these changes. The totals are very inefficient. A 60% edge is very unusual.

At the time of writing, blindly backing Unders this season has a 125-82 (60.4%) record with two pushes, but there are signs the market / bookies are adapting. 

The NBA season has been in play for four weeks now, and the average total has steadily declined. In week one, the total was set at an average of 223.06 points, declining by week to 219.47, 216.05 and 215.4. We can be pretty certain the season will not end with Unders showing a 60.4% record! Over a 1,080 game regular season plus playoff games, a 60% edge would indeed be very unusual. 

Tesla has been in the news again this month, with CEO Elon Musk selling (so far) a mere $6.9 billion of Tesla stock. That the stock is only down 5.3% this month is perhaps a good sign for the long term, and a modest drop following its incredible 43.6% jump in October. 

There's also the small issue of the company being sued for a rather reckless Tweet from Musk back in August 2018, an event I remember well. At the time I was rather ill in hospital, although not as ill as my room neighbour who had just days to live and whose time was spent saying his farewells to friends and family, a rather depressing experience for me, as it no doubt was for him. It was all very well pulling curtains around his bed, but I couldn't help but overhear every conversation, however hushed. 

Anyway, I remember the Tweet, and in particular the frustration that I wasn't able to trade the stock that day, but in the end my indisposition was a blessing in disguise.

The price of 420 was a 33% premium on what I'd paid for them in 2017, and had I been in a position to do so, I may well have sold at that point in time. At the start of August I was in the red, but after Q2 earnings and then the infamous Tweet, they were about 20% up. They fell back over the next few days, and by the time I was in front of a computer again, the moment had passed. 

As I wrote at the time, a little crudely perhaps:

At the time of writing the gains are currently well into six figures and my illness was very well timed. Who says there is no god? 

Taking a 20% profit would have been quite upsetting to look back on given today's percentage:

Finally, I have finished reading "Trillions - How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance Forever" by Robin Wigglesworth, and a very interesting read it was. It will now be passed on to my son who also likes such books. Put it on your Xmas List if you like books about finance and investment. 

New Balls? Please!

My trip to Chicago is over, and it appears that the country has gone betting mad. 

The Monday Night Football game while I was there was in Pittsburgh, between the Steelers and the Chicago Bears. I wandered down to the hotel bar to watch the second half and enjoy some beers and healthy chicken wings - while my wife wasn't able to monitor my calories - and fell into conversation with a rather loud American, cursing his luck for betting Overs. Since the total he'd bet was 40 and it was 14:3 with most of the third quarter to come, I wasn't quite sure why he was so certain he'd lost, but I bit my tongue.

Mr. Portland (Oregon, not Maine), informed me that his rationale had been that he'd been "wiped out" on the Sunday games, had decided that the Monday game would definitely go Under, but because he'd lost so many bets on Sunday he went against his "research" and backed Over. But he did want to make clear that he wasn't a complete idiot by telling me that he only bets $25 a time. This assertion (about being an idiot) was later found to be false, with the conversation turning to politics and references to "Sleepy Joe Biden", and the wild claim that "it's impossible to make any money from sports betting". I bit my tongue (again) on both topics. There was a lot of tongue biting that night.

Ultimately the game was comfortably Over finishing with 56 points, and with that bet a winner, he turned to his phone and started looking at betting on the outcome of the next play, soliciting opinions from the small group present. By this time we had been joined by a couple of slightly more normal people, one a German living in Brazil, the other an Angeleno, who both found the whole situation highly amusing, especially when towards the end our friend was about to back the Bears to win the game until I pointed out that the Steelers only needed a field goal to win the game. Cue total astonishment from the Portland Proud Boy, exclaiming "Oh yeah, that's right!" and a change of strategy subsequently rewarded with another winning bet when the required field goal was kicked with 26 seconds left. I was half expecting a beer for my troubles, but no that didn't happen.

I asked Mr. Portland which sportsbook he used, and his answer was Bovada, a company with a good reputation in the US but who typically post -110 lines (1.909) on 50/50 bets, a vig that would make it difficult to make money long term. 

Once the game was over, he wanted to move on to NBA betting, but with meetings the next day, I needed my beauty sleep but my parting gift to him was telling him to look at Unders in NBA games this season.

Prior to leaving, it appeared that "backing Unders when the total is greater than 212.5 is currently the best bet".

As mentioned in the last post, the "overt, abrupt and abnormal" rule change has had a significant impact on scoring, but there is one other factor that may be partly contributing which is the revelation that after 37 years of using a Spalding manufactured ball, the NBA now uses a Wilson.

Larry emailed me with this link, and worth a read if you're interested about this kind of thing. One paragraph states:

While it’s still early in the season, the league is currently experiencing a temporary shooting slump, with an approximately 2% lower overall field goal and three-point percentage compared to last year. While a short offseason and new foul call interpretations have been subject to blame, some trainers, players, and analysts are now pointing towards the new Wilson ball as a possible issue.

While I think the primary reason for the decline in points is the new rule, it is certainly possible that the change of ball is a secondary contributory factor. Some players are talking about it, although of course being able to blame the ball rather than your poor shooting could be convenient.

Paul George of the Los Angeles Clippers is quoted as saying:

"Not to make an excuse about the ball, but it’s a different basketball. It doesn’t have the same touch/softness that the Spalding ball had, and you’ll see this year. It’s gonna be a lot of bad misses”

He himself seems to have adjusted just fine, currently fourth in the points-per-game category, up from 22nd last season. 

As to my comment regarding the 212.5 line, the record now for the season at this entry point is 98-57-1 which is 63%, and in November is so far 40-30 (57.1%). I am indebted to schnakenpopanz for pointing me to gimmethedog.com in his comment:

Hello, long time reader, but only my first comment. Thx for all the work you put in, I learnt a lot from your experiences.

I have been working together with the killersports platform a while ago and been active in several subgroups and worked with a lot of people from the core group.

So I think this will be quite interesting for you. killersports as you know it may not exist, but there is a subsite formed by other members which continues the SDQL format.

So far it is in beta testing and hopefully will catch up to the painful emptiness that killersports aka sportsdatabase left us with.

http://gimmethedog.com/

I have used it for test purposes a lot right now and it looks solid, but shortcuts we are familiar with may not work from the get go. It looks promising.

If there are other things I may help with, feel free to ask.

Cheers.

Cheers indeed as beta testing or not, this is looking to be a hugely useful site. Many thanks to schnakenpopanz for sharing this.

Some of you may recall that AT asked about Small College Dogs recently, and while the Gimme The Dog site doesn't recognise the "Division" parameter, the numbers for all matches this season shows a less than exciting record of 44-45.

Dr Tsouts commented that:

I am tracking most of Cassini's systems for almost 2 months and I am slightly negative on NCAAF handicaps with a record of 26 wins, 28 losses and 2 void. But numbers are better when following straight wins with 9 wins and 13 losses and a 8.3% ROI. The picture in NFL is great and I am waiting a correction but now I have 7 wins and 4 losses in straight wins (money line) and 27-11 in handicap with the extraordinary 27-11 record!

The record is now 28-13 record with four selections this week.  

Overt, Abrupt and Abnormal

The subject isn't about my personality, although I've been described as all three at some time or other, but was triggered by an interesting observation from Larry regarding the NBA Points Total System this season. He noted:

Numbers definitely down and here's some stats after 2 weeks into new season which may interest you.

Fewest number free throws per game in modern era of NBA

Lowest offensive efficiency number since 2014

Lowest 3 point % since 2003

Lowest field goal % since 2000

I can't say I am totally surprised at these numbers because as I wrote in an email on October 21st regarding the season:

One area to keep an eye on, and which may slow - or even reverse - the steady increase in points scored, is the NBA's rule change concerning fouls on shots.

The rule change I was referring to was the one implemented ahead of this season to:

discourage offensive players from making "overt, abrupt or abnormal non-basketball moves"

Essentially, NBA referees will no longer reward offensive players who launch themselves into defenders. 

While we are only a few days into the season, the rule appears to be having more of an impact than I was expecting.

Nine points fewer per game than last season. Almost half of those are from 'lost' free-throws and the reduced 3-point percentages Larry mentioned easily explain the rest. 

Rather than adding 10 points to the previous season's average, it seems this season we will need to subtract a few, but the whole premise behind this strategy over the years has been that the public is slow to adapt to changes in the game, and shy away from previously unseen totals. Now that points are in decline, that edge isn't there, since the public is by now used to totals in the 220's. 

Of the 10 matches so far this season with the highest Totals, eight have gone Under. Until the market catches up to the impact of this new rule, it would seem logical that Unders will be value. Sadly without Killer Sports, it's not easy to verify this but this blog is about giving you ideas and doing your own research, so good luck if you run with this one.  

Totally Out of Reach

A few comments on recent posts, which makes the task of writing a new post much easier. Working backwards, and on the most recent post, my old friend "babyduck" took a break from Chipstead pond and the White Hart to say:

Good effort, with the weight loss. I need to do the same!

Losing weight really isn't difficult, although it's not as easy as gaining it, but it's just so boring! I do find it motivating and critical to keep records but basically it simply requires self-discipline, and for one's social life to grind to a complete halt. Fortunately, when I set my mind to something, self-control isn't an issue, and so far as social life is concerned, it helps that I'm not very popular.

Diego commented about my NBA Killer Sports comment that it was "Early days, and the unavailability of Killer Sports for the NBA this season is certainly an inconvenience" writing:

I don't know what you miss about KillerSports, but at

https://s3.sportsdatabase.com/NBA/query.html

you can do basically the same queries. For example:

date, team, o:team, total@total>=230 and site=home and date>=today

By the way, thank you for the blog, I enjoy it a lot :)

This does work for selecting the matches, although I'm struggling to see how to get the game results to display. The SDQL is certainly different from the very easy to use Killer Sports version, but if there's a manual somewhere this could be a useful resource. Anyway, thanks for the lead Diego and the 'official' results so far from the NBA Overs System are now 0-0! The 234.5 mark may be a tad high. 

AT commented:

Do you not play Small College Dogs anymore? I've read most of your blog and never saw where those dropped out of the regular rotation

I stopped publishing the College Football Small Dogs when Killer Sports stopped tracking them. I like the results of my systems to be verifiable, and identifying qualifying matches (I focused on Division 1A colleges) went from a few seconds to, well, much longer. With, I believe, 254 colleges in Division One football, it's no small task doing this manually and I like an easy life.

Referring to the NBA totals, Annis asked: 

So what was last year’s average total

The table below shows the total used for backing Overs since we noted that the points being scored were steadily increasing:

If the question is asking what was the average total points per game last season, the answer is 224.2, i.e. ten fewer points than the 234.2 we are looking for this season. 

And I think that is it for comments, but there was an interesting Tweet that @statsbet looped me into.

I do like things like this, so thank you Statsbet. The Tweet was this:

Aside from the missing apostrophe, the last sentence is absolutely correct. I'm pretty sure no sane person would ever have their entire retirement savings fully invested in stocks, because as this example shows, that's a recipe for disaster. A couple of bad years early on, and you're out looking for a janitorial position to boost your income! 

A lot of this was actually covered recently in my Diving Into Retirement post where the conclusion was that even a 4% withdrawal from an S&P 500 Index Fund would have resulted in running out of money on 13 occasions since the Index's inception, so 5% would be bordering on reckless. 

The story of DFA (Dimensional Fund Advisors) is covered in the "Trillions" book mentioned in my last post. Chapter 9, "New Dimensions" if you're interested.

Perfect Storm, Indexes and Eating Pies

As disappointing as September was, October more than made up for it with what might be called a perfect storm. My concerns raised in September's review turned out to be unfounded:

Fortunately it's [September] the only such month, although a little concerning that October is the next worst month.

Of the stocks I've mentioned here previously, Tesla, Boeing and Lloyds Bank were all up on the month, while Bitcoin, Pfeizer and Berkshire Hathaway were down.

Looking at those stocks a month later and in October, Tesla was up 44%, Lloyds was up 11%, Bitcoin was up 47%, Pfeizer was up 1.7% and Berkshire Hathaway was up 5%. All returns that wouldn't look out of place for a year! 

Only Boeing spoiled the party down almost 6%, but more than compensated by the company fortunate enough to currently have my services at their disposal gaining 18%, with my options and RSUs consequently moving nicely into the money, while the S&P 500 Index was up close to 7%. 

Some of you longer term readers will know my love for Index Funds since I've mentioned them since at least 2014, especially the S&P 500, and I'm currently reading Trillions, by Robin Wigglesworth, which is an excellent book about their creation - "How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance Forever". 

The FTSE 100 was up 2.13% on the month and for the 24th time in the past 28 years - and 12th of the last 13 - looks likely to again have a lower return than the S&P 500 this year.

On the topic of indexes, one much followed one is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which being comprised of just 30 stocks, isn't representative of the overall US market, but it is old, even if only one company (Procter and Gamble) was in the index prior to 1976.  

In 1999, a book was published titled "Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market" in which the authors predicted that the index would reach the "titular milestone" by 2002 or 2004. In the event, that didn't happen, but the number was finally reached today, almost two decades later! 

In the January 2000 issue of The Atlantic Monthly, Glassman and Hassett replied to a critic of their theory that "if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, we will each give $1,000 to the charity of your choice." For the Dow to be closer to 10,000 than to 36,000, it would have to be below 23,000. As things turned out, the index was not even at half that figure ten years after Glassman and Hassett's prediction (the Dow's highest close in January 2010 was 10,725, reached on 19 January). In early 2010, Glassman and Hassett conceded they lost the bet and they each donated $1,000 to the Salvation Army. It wasn't until 18 October 2017, coincidentally the day before the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, that the Dow closed above 23,000, thus finally reaching more than halfway from 10,000 to 36,000. Following multiple downturns, including the 2020 stock market crash, the Dow continued rising toward the titular milestone, finally reaching 36,000 on 1 November 2021 (but has not closed above it).

The Sports Investment bank grew by 3.9% which didn't really impact the big picture, but it's always nice to make some beer money, for those months when beer is allowed of course.

October saw nine Draw selections for the EPL "Close" System and a 13% ROI from the three winners, although we're on a losing run which happens quite often with Draw betting:

Interesting that for the second consecutive season, Away wins in the EPL are currently more frequent than Home wins, even with crowds back. 

The NFL Small Road 'Dogs System had a good month with a 14-9 'official' record looking likely. Killer Sports haven't updated the past weekend yet, but my results show these went 5-2 on a busy Sunday. 

The NBA Overs System has so far been very quiet as mentioned previously and in the MLB playoffs two of the three 'Hot Favourites' lost (all Los Angeles Dodgers), there have been no Overs qualifiers, but six of the eight Unders bets have been winners. At most, there are two more games before the 2021 season concludes.

In summary, October was the best month ever in real terms, and at 7.64% the third best ever in percentage terms, at least since 2011. The 48.93% year-on-year number was slightly disappointing, as it failed to beat the high of 48.94% set at the end of March! 

October also marked a 100% climb from the March 23rd, 2020 pandemic nadir, and it was also a good month for the Sober October and weight loss challenge I set myself.

Target is 20lbs and, unlike some of my financial targets, this one is all up to me.

After a month with an average daily intake of just 1,095 calories, 196 miles covered on foot - mostly walking, but with a little running, 166 miles ridden on the bike, no alcohol and no meat - I did eat a lot of fish though - the final tally for pounds lost was 20.8, which is my best ever 31 day total beating the 19.8 pounds lost in January 2016, another "dry" month. Losing weight gets tougher the older you get and although I suggested "this one is all up to me", there's only so much one can do, and it was very pleasing to hit that 20 pounds number this morning.

With a work trip to the Windy City this month and the Xmas festivities in December I shall no doubt be doing "Dry January" again in a couple of months in an effort to lose the probable 'gains' between now and then. This health stuff never ends! As the Daily Mash reported in 2015:

If you want to be fit you have to keep doing exercise forever, it has emerged.

Healthy eating and sport have been condemned as a scam after it was revealed that they only lead to more healthy eating and more sport.

Carolyn Ryan of Cardiff said: “After two months of going to the gym I asked my personal trainer when I’d be fit enough to stop all this and eat the fuck out of some pies.

“The look on her face. She said that if I relaxed my diet regime even for a week then the fat would pile on again even faster than before, and if anything I should be stepping it up.

“I thought it’d be like A-levels where once you’ve passed you never think about history ever again, but it’s more like revising history five nights a week for the rest of your life.

“She says after a while I won’t even want a Toblerone any more. That made me cry.”

Personal trainer Donna Sheridan said: “Getting healthy isn’t a sprint, it’s an endless marathon through featureless terrain pretending that chips and sitting around watching telly don’t exist.

“However I do have the warm glow of knowing that I’m better than everyone else.

“Unless they’re right and I’m the moron. Which I occasionally think, but I get that out of my system with a nice eight-mile run.”