I have had fourteen losing days this year, and I just worked out that six of them have come on a Thursday. Given that there have only been ten Thursdays so far in 2011, that's a pretty high strike rate. A four figure loss yesterday means that the Premium Charge may well not be a problem for a second week, only this time avoided by a method that I would rather not use.
Looking back a year, and it's a similar pattern. I lost on nine of the first eighteen Thursdays of 2010, including two painful losses of over £2k. Not good.
Why are Thursdays so bad? Is it just a statistical oddity or is there more to it?
One reason must be the general lack of sport in general, with little football, and some losses on sports that I clearly don't have an edge on. Super League Rugby for one. That's been a loser so far this season.
In the US, college basketball goes crazy at this time of year, with conference tournaments and then 'March Madness' (aka the NCAA Tournament which starts next Tuesday), and 'madness' was certainly an apt name for it for one of the big losses I mentioned earlier. If I remember it rightly, it was a case of betting too much in an illiquid market.
I suspect that the main reason is that there is little NBA action on Thursdays, with just two or three games most weeks, two of which are televised nationwide serially.
Does form go out of the window when the world is watching? It might be interesting to look back on the results. My loss last night was on the Phoenix Suns who ALWAYS beat the Denver Nuggets at home, well, at least they did for twelve games in a row until my money was on them. Having not lost at home to the Nuggets since April of 2004, they waited until my money was on board before, not just losing, but getting thrashed. And no, that wasn't why I backed the Suns, but I was pleased to have that statistic on my side at the time.
The games chosen are selected because they are likely to be competitive. Good for trading in theory, but with just the one game (or two), I run into the same problems I have with play-off games - too many traders concentrated on one game or two, meaning value is harder to find than on quieter games. While I tell myself that I'm not taking poor value, the numbers are telling me that might not be an accurate statement.
When I get some time, I shall look at this in more detail.
Monday ain't a fun day
Tuesday's a goof day
Wednesdays are frenzy
Thursday's the worst day
Friday is great
'Cause I can hardly wait until the weekend - Here Comes The Weekend - Dave Edmunds
Friday, 11 March 2011
Thursday's The Worst Day
Thursday, 10 March 2011
Fallacious
It's quite incredible that anyone claiming to be a 'betting expert' would waste their time, and the time of others, on promoting a scam like this one, sent to me by matt@betfairtradingexpert.com :
Subject: A Good Little EarnerWow! It all seems too good to be true, although on closer inspection it doesn't surprise me at all that it is dirt cheap. I tried imagining the 'edge this will give me', and it is always negative. Has Matt never heard of Gambler's fallacy, (or the Monte Carlo fallacy, or fallacy of the maturity of chances)? One presumes he's really a little sharper than that, in which case he does himself no favours whatsoever by trying to sell such rubbish to the less well-informed. And why are these scams always so poorly written?
I hope lady luck has been shining on you since we last spoke :-)
I have just discovered a brilliant new roulette software program, that will help give you an edge over the casinos.
Although it's extremely simple and easy to use, it's very powerful, and a 'must have' tool for any online roulette player like yourself.
You can find out more about here:
http://www.betfairtradingexpert.com/recommendedbetting.php?site=RouletteSniper
It's really cool and allows to you track multiple potential bets at the same time. It then gives you an alert when your system bet comes up, and tells you what amount to bet with.
That might not sound too impressive, but think about this...
Lets say you had a system where you only bet when a particular dozen hasn't come in, for say...10 times.
Now, it can be pretty time consuming waiting for this to happen, but the real pain is the all the bets you end up missing!
Lets say you are monitoring the first dozen of numbers 1 to 12.
Now, while you have your eyes glued waiting for that particular dozen to miss 10 times, you don't spot all the other dozens and column bets that have not spun
in for 10, 12 or even 15 times+ themselves!
Without help from a powerful tracking tool like this, it's virtually impossible to keep track of all these potential bets.
And it gets even better...
It doesn't just track dozens and columns bets!
You tell it what bets you want it to track and how many spins it needs to miss, and the software will alert you when a potential bet comes up automatically.
You could be tracking... odds/evens, high/low, black/red, dozens/columns, lines, corners, splits plus more ...all at the same time, with minimum effort!
Imagine the edge this is going to give you, not to mention the amount of time it will save you!
Amazingly, this thing is dirt cheap and I was really surprised when I saw how much it was. Most players will probably make back what it costs during their first session using it.
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
Pruning The Bank
Simon commented the other day that in light of what happened with Sporting Options, he wouldn’t recommend keeping a large amount of money in Betfair.
Sporting Options, as many of you will know, was a betting exchange founded in 2000 by a couple of former BZW (one of my former employers) options traders, who went bust in late 2004 owing £3.5 million to 5,342 individuals, with a few owed in excess of £100k. Betfair stepped in and anyone owed £1,000 or less was repaid in full (or at least credited with that amount in the form of a Betfair account) while larger debtors 20% with the possibility of earning back more in the form of ‘commission rebates’.
For a time, it appeared that Sporting Options were matching bets worth up to 15% of those matched at Betfair, but allegedly the turnover was being financed by the owners of Sporting Options, who were using their own funds to create the liquidity.
At the time of Sporting Option’s collapse, Betfair issued a statement reassuring clients their deposits are safe. "Our client funds are held on trust in ring-fenced client accounts with the Royal Bank of Scotland and are completely segregated from company funds ... Under no circumstances could third parties have a claim on Betfair clients' money.”
Most exchanges take this approach although one notable exception is “BackAndLay, whose Chief Executive Ian Davies stated that no funds, whether in the hands of an operator or a trustee, are 100% safe, and that the customer simply has to make a judgement call about whether or not to trust the entity they are lodging funds with."
So while there might not be the same concern with maintaining a five figure balance with a FTSE 250 company with 3 million clients and a turnover in excess of £50m/week as there should have been with a small company based in Burgess Hill, it is probably not the best place to park a fairly large some of money, and yes, ’large’ is a relative term. Because I don’t need the cash on a day-to-day basis though, I tend to only withdraw funds when I have a ‘luxury’ expense to fund – a holiday for example, and I tend not to have too many of those.
And that’s how a betting bank should be. A betting bank shouldn’t be treated like a savings account, something that you dip into on a frequent basis to ‘pay a few bills’ - it should be money set aside that you will never need and can leave alone to grow. You don’t plant a seed and then keep digging it up if you want to grow a plant. You leave it alone. Once it has grown, it’s perfectly acceptable to do a little pruning, but let the thing grow first.
Paper Trading
Some good news at last. The Total Charges are at 20.07%, so no Premium Charge this week at least. Now if only I can keep the losers coming!
Mark commented on my list of reading material:
Thanks for posting this information up. I have read some of the books on your list and have now added the rest to my Amazon wish list. One other book that is popular and recommended by quite a few other bloggers is ‘Trading the Zone’ by Mark Douglas.My personal opinion of paper trading is similar to Mark - it's useless. It's like writing a computer program and testing it by printing the code out and reviewing it. Or playing poker with matchsticks.
I believe that you are quite correct about there being no substitute for experience. I would also like to add my own personal view (that I will probably get shot down for) that paper trading is of little value as a learning tool.
I believe that there is no real benefit to be gained from paper trading, apart from showing the very basic mechanics of how a method works. I for one prefer not to paper trade but to use minimum stakes.
The reason for my aversion to paper trading is that it does not affect our emotional state. I could paper trade and loose half my virtual bank of one million pounds and I would not be affected at all by the experience, but if I had a bank of just ten pounds sterling and lost half of it during my testing, I would be exposed to mild versions of the emotions that go along with the trading for more substantial sums.
Also when trading using minimum stakes we have to physically put trades on and lay them off, which can highlight potential problems with trading software etc that virtual trading can not.
Yes, when you're working out the idea initially, paper may have limited value, but the only way to really test a system is in practice, and cost isn't an issue. On Betfair you don't even have to bet the official minimum stake. If you want to bet with 10p then you can. if it starts to look good, up the stakes.
Like running a computer program for the first time, operating a system 'live' can uncover all kinds of problems. (I'm speaking for most programmers here, not myself of course - all my programs from my developer days ran perfectly first time. I think.) With betting systems, you can run into the logistical problem of not being able to get the price on paper. For systems where the stake varies depending on previous results, you find outcomes not determined before the next bet is due. Your life gets in the way and you can't place the bet. And more, and as Mark says, if your system uses a progressive staking system, even playing with small amounts can soon make you realise that theoretical bets are one thing, but putting larger bets down after losing soon becomes a show-stopper. What's the worst that can happen with trading for real? You lose a few (less than) minimum stakes. That's a small price to pay to learn that your system is flawed.
Tuesday, 8 March 2011
Sports Trading Bibliography
I was asked the other day for suggestions about books that might help a fellow IT professional (Bernard) get up to speed on the exchanges a little faster than usual, and since he didn’t leave an e-mail address, I shall put some ideas out here.
When I began sports trading in 2004, I read the same Betfair specific books as everyone else – Lay, Back and Think Of Winning by Nigel Paul was I believe the first, soon followed by Game, Set And Matched by Iain Fletcher. Neither are going to make you rich any time soon, but they are easy reads for an introduction to the exchanges.
I also read Racing Post's The Definitive Guide To Betting Exchanges edited by Paul Kealy and Winning On Bettfair For Dummies. These are all basic stuff though, and unless you are a complete novice, you’ll probably not get too much out of them.
I read a number of financial trading books which helped, notably:
Sports Specific:
Just a few suggestions from my collection, and develop at least a basic understanding of probability. Probability for Dummies by Deborah Rumsey PhD is as good a place to start as any.
With a background in IT, Bernard is well placed to be successful and while the books above are helpful in that they set the mind working, (you need your own ideas), but there is no substitute for experience.
It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon" - Jesse LivermoreNote: This post was updated on May 13th, 2024 to include two new books by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow
O'Dwyer Straits - Money For Nothing?
The 'weekend' finished with a nice winner for Football Elite, as Deportivo La Coruna beat Real Sociedad 2-1. When Sociedad pulled it back to a one goal game, I was thinking 'here we go again', and waiting for the 90' penalty, but Deportivo held on.
The ratings are updated, and Everton are rather surprisingly in fourth place right now with Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool all within six points. In last place, and looking value at 2.06 for relegation, are Blackpool. The Best Football Trader mentions Blackburn Rovers as a candidate for relegation , and they are certainly in the mix with games to come versus Arsenal and the two Manchesters and in fact, every game is against a team with something to play for although Bolton Wanderers (currently the form team in the EPL) might have given up by the time they meet! My bottom six, from the bottom up by rating, are currently Blackpool, West Bromwich Albion, Wigan Athletic, Birmingham City, Blackburn Rovers and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
The form team across all the major leagues right now is Nuremberg, who have exceeded expectations in their last six games. Olympique Lyonnais have managed this in their last five, and Hannover '96 in their last four. On the flip-side, Hoffenheim, Chievo Verona and Palermo have all underperformed in four consecutive matches.
John O'Dwyer is trying to get back on his feet over at Betfair Profit & Loss but he seems to be all over the place. On February 18th, he wrote
"I am back on Betfair now and have £450 in my account, so I'll continue with the updates as previous, and see if I can build it into something more manageable."Fair enough. It is certainly possible to build a large bank from a small deposit, but on March 4th, he wrote
"I've not had a bet for around a week, so it would be pointless providing a screen-shot of any profit or loss. I withdrew a lot of it a week ago to pay for a few bills. I have now however got £200 in my account".So the statement that he had "£450 in my account" is very misleading. While technically, the balance may have shown £450, if that money is earmarked for debts or living expenses, it shouldn't be in a betting account. If there is one golden rule for gambling, it must be "Don't bet with money that you can't afford to lose". Anyway, so even £200 is enough to build on, so long as you have an edge and time. You're not going to turn it into six figures in a week, but over a longer period, this is certainly achievable. But now, we find out that John isn't "looking to build it into something more manageable", he is looking to "do this full-time" - by which I presume means he is expecting to make an income from trading. You can trade full-time on a bank of any size - you just won't make a very good income for a while. As I have said before, your betting bank should be money you don't need, and left alone and allowed to build. If you need the money for other things, it's not going to happen.
I guess everyone with a betting account is an optimist to some degree, but a healthy dose of realism with that optimism is necessary. When we first learn about betting and probabilities, if it's at a young age, most of us, if we are honest, probably entertain thoughts of becoming full-time gamblers. I know I did. Somehow the laws of probability wouldn't apply to me. The long losing runs were things that happened to other people, but of course that's nonsense. Go to any casino on any day and see how often 'evens' chances lose consecutively. In the long run, if you are not getting value, then you will lose steadily, and most of us learn that sooner or later. Turning £200 into a large enough bank to generate a living wage is possible, but not in five minutes.
If there is a second golden rule of gambling, it is "Be patient". We have the option of doing nothing, an option that I suspect many people don't take full advantage of, myself included. The temptation for a 'fun' bet, while watching for example the Barcelona v Arsenal game, can be hard to resist, but like the occasional visit to a casino, it's for entertainment, rather than making money. Having said that, when I'm in a casino, I do play the games that offer bets that are closest to value, my favourite being craps, and similarly playing the liquid markets on a game like tonight's mean that I shouldn't go too far wrong. Famous last words.
"So knock me down, tear me up but I will bare it all broken just to fill my cup" - The Decemberists
Monday, 7 March 2011
Facts
It's been a strange week. A big win on Monday and modest win on Tuesday got things off to a good start, and I was in full PC reduction mode, before losses on Wednesday and Thursday took away that concern. Then a weekend full of work meant little trading for the last two days. When all is said and done, I doubt that the PC will be an issue this week, although I've thought that before only to see it still there.
The weekend highlight on the football betting was Football Elite's selection of Hannover 96 v Bayern Munich. I layed Bayern Munich to get the draw on my side, but in the end Hannover ran out easy 3-1 winners. Unfortunately it was downhill from there with other picks Lorient (D 0-0), Freiburg (L 1-3) and Hercules (L 1-2) all going down. No draws for either myself or the Drawmaster. Auxerre came close for me but a goal in the 86' lost me that one, and on Friday night of course, a 90' goal took away a draw in the Lecce v AS Roma game.
I did have a nice win on the England v South Africa cricket game, although due to work commitments I had to watch the drama unfold on cricinfo after backing SA initially and greening up at 1.2 because... "I had to go to work". I was sorely tempted to let the bet run, but in the end I made the right call even if at the time I may have been giving up a little value. I've been in similar positions before, and when I let the bet run, it has a habit of losing!
Another 1.01 'gubbing' which the Betfair forum get so excited about. Something that happens every (approximately) 1 in 101 of the time doesn't seem to me something to get too excited about, but I was reading about the Israeli lottery the other day where apparently a draw late last year produced the same numbers as the draw three weeks prior to that - and drawn in exactly reverse order! The odds on this were calculated at 1 in four trillion. 1.01 looks rather tame in comparison. The numbers were 13, 14, 26, 32, 33 and 36 (strong number 2) if anyone fancies a three-peat any time soon.
Finally, a goodbye to Rob's long running blog Gambling Cos Building's Up The Spout which is going into hibernation. A strange time of year to hibernate unless Rob is southern hemisphere, but he always was a little different! Just look at the name of the blog.
"If you don't look facts in the face, they have a way of stabbing you in the back". - Winston S Churchill.
Friday, 4 March 2011
Back To Back In London
With the Borussia Dortmund v Koln game producing a scoreless first quarter, I locked in a profit on the Over/Under, and a smaller profit on the Match Odds market after laying pre-game at 1.33 and trading out at 1.44 when a Dortmund goal started to look inevitable. It finally came just before Half-time but by then the Nets v Raptors game was under-way. In the end, my expectation of a low scoring game (Dortmund v Koln) was correct, and I should have left it alone.
Lecce v AS Roma was looking good for the draw until a 90' penalty, for the second consecutive week in Serie A I might add, scuppered a win. Overall a profit, but a winner at 3.5 would have made it an excellent night rather than a so-so night.
Strong draws for this weekend are Auxerre v Paris St Germain, Real Mallorca v Valencia, Borussia Moenchengladbach v Hoffenheim and Juventus v AC Milan.
Weaker draws are Newcastle United v Everton, Liverpool v Manchester United and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur strangely all from the EPL.
For home value picks, which stank last week, I like Birmingham City (2.48) v West Bromwich Albion, Nuremberg (1.92) v St Pauli and Chievo (2.42) v Parma.
For the record, Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks are West Ham v Stoke Draw @ 3.20, Newcastle v Everton (3.20) and Fulham v Blackburn (3.40).
The London NBA game saw the Raptors trade at 1.7 after opening at around 2.32. Not a huge swing by NBA standards, and the same two teams go at it again tomorrow.
Expekter Winner - Or Two
And just like that, we have a winner. Expekter was the first to work out that Murray leads 2-1 in sets, with Roddick winning the third set on a tie-break with the last two points being aces, and then serving four aces to lead the fourth set 1-0. Easy!
On to more serious matters now, and two matches to focus on tonight. Borussia Dortmund v Koln and Lecce v AS Roma.
The ratings have Borussia Dortmund to win by two goals, and priced at 1.39. On Betfair they are currently priced at 1.34/1.35. My model clearly expects less goals than the market does, with the over prices looking very generous, which tells me I am missing something! A lay of Dortmund and a back of Unders looks to be the opening play here, and when the NBA game in London starts, I'll be trading out and concentrating on that.
In Serie A, Lecce v AS Roma has strong draw written all over it, with a cautionary note that Over looks value to me, (not a good sign for a draw), and Serie A is by far the worst performing 'strong draw' league at just over 27% (versus 35% across all five top leagues).
For anyone who rarely watches the sport, today is a good opportunity to see why, to my mind at least, the NBA is the best game for trading. The latest example of how you can't go far wrong laying at short prices was last night when the Miami Heat had a commanding 24 point lead v Orlando Magic and lost. Tonight's game between New Jersey and Toronto may not feature two of the best teams in the league, but for trading, who cares?
Ace Puzzle (Repeat)
On the last day of 2010, I posted this little puzzle up for your entertainment, and Dave asked recently what the answer was. Since no one has been able to work it out yet, or at least posted the answer here, I thought I would re-post it, and reveal all after the weekend - one that may see little trading for me as I again have to work all day Saturday and Sunday! The joys of working in IT. Little trading might actually be good. I seem to be all over the place this month, winning four figures in one market and dropping slightly bigger four figures in another. Good for the PC, not so good for my stress level.
Here's the post again:
Courtesy of "Betting The Odds - The Hidden Mathematics Of Sport" by Rob Eastway and John Haigh, comes this little puzzle - a doddle for sharp-minded readers I'm sure.
You are at home with the TV in the background and the sound turned down. You notice that Andy Roddick is in the middle of a match with Andy Murray and Roddick is serving. He serves an ace, and goes on to serve five more consecutive aces.
At this point you turn the sound up, to hear that Murray currently leads the match. What is the match score at this point - in sets and games?
Thursday, 3 March 2011
Clippered Wings
My day got off to a disappointing start this morning with my back of the Houston Rockets (when superstar Blake Griffin picked up his fifth foul) not working out and going on to lose me a fair amount. It's a very thin line between success and failure. One minute Houston are a point down with the ball and fail to score, and seconds later they foul a three-point shooter and instead of leading by one, are down by four. Late in the game, those breaks will kill you.
Anyway, aware that my mood was not its usual bright and cheery self, Mrs. Cassini asked me "What makes you feel better after a loss", and for me, in a word, it's "perspective". Losing 700 is annoying, I can't deny that, but in the whole scheme of things, it's really irrelevant. The stock market makes or loses me more than that amount most days, and as a percentage of my account balance, 700 it's in the 2.5% range - I know, I keep far too much in there for reasons previously explained.
Life is good. Those close to me have their health, there's food on the table, so what the hell annoyed me so much? I really think it was the manner in which the bet lost. Houston SHOULD have taken the lead, and SHOULD have won. But they didn't. It happens. I still think it was a value bet, but some losses, one almost takes personally. I'm still up over a thousand on the week, and while I would rather have had three days of solid profits, the end result is the same, and maybe I should pat myself on the back for the PC reducing element of the loss.
Getting upset about one losing bet is just silly. The time to get upset is if it becomes apparent that my ability to find an edge is gone, which may well happen one day. I'm not getting any younger. I mentioned earlier, and stress isn't good for you. The top things you can do to maintain your health are, I have it on good authority, don't smoke, don't drink too much, don't be a fat bastard, exercise, eat more vegetables and fruits, and maintain a positive attitude.
And on that note, let me tell you about the good news on the Premium Charge…
Wednesday, 2 March 2011
My Goodness
I just checked the Premium Charge portal for this week, and somehow my Total Charges percentage has dropped to 19.91 from 19.96 last week. I could have done with the Academy Awards taking place a few hours earlier! So with the end of February, my profits for the first two months of the year are just 1.6% off last year's total and I can't complain about that.
Football Elite started the month off with a loser yesterday as Espanyol threw away a lead at home to Mallorca and followed that today with Real Sociedad, who gave up a relatively (77') late goal. Not a good start to the month after a strong February, and as has been commented on elsewhere, this part of the season is not particularly strong for FE so it may be time to reduce the stakes.
With the Arsenal v Leyton Orient game not offering a lot in the way of value, I watched Schalke '04 win at Bayern Munich to show that the Bundeslayga system also works in cup matches, although a sample of one is perhaps a little small to draw any firm conclusions from.
St. Patrick's Day came early and luckily for me I stayed well out of the way with Ireland being matched at 400 on Betfair in-play. "England traded at 1.01 for £2.7 million, 1.02 for £2.18 million and plenty of other huge sums at prohibitively short prices".
My goodness, my Guinness, as the advert used to say.
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
Conservative Betting
The weekend football investments finished up with another late goal, this one going against me as it took away a winner in Stoke City. The home 'value' picks were anything but this weekend, with three of the four picks drawing and one (Hoffenheim) losing, but fortunately I found three more draws from the four strong draw picks - Arles-Avignon v Brest at 3.2 and Racing Santander v Villareal at 3.45 and Kaiserslautern v Hamburg at 3.6. I've added another filter which is off to a good start. My draws eclipsed Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster tips as he went 0 for 3.
Football Elite had just the one pick this week, and that was also a winner at 2.44 as Cagliari beat Lazio 1-0. I think I'll leave the 'home value' picks in Matt's capable hands while I focus on my draws. Backing the draw may not be exciting, but if you're serious about making money from trading, excitement shouldn't be something you look for. Sadly for some, it's a high that some people find hard to handle.
I've gone back and forth on whether or not to post the following, but it seems to me a cautionary tale of how some of us know the rules to follow to be successful, yet are unable to resist the thrill of a gamble. It may help someone, but probably not, as the type of person it could help is not the type of person who would want, or accept the advice. To put it bluntly, to my mind anyway, this person is not someone equipped with the attributes required to be a long-term winner. It's also a cautionary lesson on being careful what you write in the digital age, because it stays around for a long time as I was reading just the other day.
So here's a post from the Betfair Forum written on 11.June.2007:
I am on the verge of increasing my bank to 2,000. Am I teetering on pro shores?The post attracted a lot of comment, mostly cautionary, and it's interesting that almost four years later they were to be proven right. The author of the original post wrote this earlier this month:
Considering this has been my full time job these past few months, I feel it's about time I give this a serious shot.
What is the size of bank needed to earn the average wage in your opinion?
My aim is a simple one.
Is to try and earn as much as I can per day by taking as little risks as possible. No set target. It's going to take patience, monumental discipline, time and the will to not get carried away with potential boredom. I have done this with success for a month before, only to lose discipline after a month by venturing back into the gambling world again - betting on the dreaded over 2.5 goals bets, to name but one
Severely lowering the gambling aspect is the way forward for me. I know this because when I lose it's because of greed and reaching for excitement levels that conservative betting doesn't bring.
*Greed
*Discipline
*Boredom
3 big factors that have lead me to the poor house many times in the past.
When I revert back to betting on 1.08 odds (for example) when my head is telling me the certain event is more or less over, I do well again. It's low excitement betting but given me results. It's only when I get greedy, become bored and start taking chances again, it all goes wrong.
Gambling is fine if that is your aim. But you cannot earn a living from gambling, I know that much for certain. We all know you have to have some plan in order to try and do this. It's not feasible for me to gamble to try and earn a living. Trading also involves gambling. My aim is to eliminate risks.
Getting past the 3 words above is the key to mine and many peoples success on here. Easier said then done for many, I know.
Basically, I've messed up big style. I have won consistently on Betfair in the past, making around 27k in total from February to September last year and was even lucky enough to go to Flushing Meadows in New York and Wimbledon for the tennis, but in the last month it has gone very wrong because I have taken far too many risks. And because of this I have lost my bank and now have no funds left to work with. :-(If anyone wishes to invest, for a small commission I can make the arrangements, but I suspect that an ad. titled "Successful Gambler Seeks Money" is unlikely to attract too many investors.
I am writing this to ask if anyone out there would be so kind as to lend me some funds to start again so I can build it up slowly into the numbers I made last year. I am very confident, and if you could do this, I will not only pay you back, but I will give you a massive slice of any profit I make in future on Betfair - which I expect to do.
I know this is asking a lot as you do not know me, but I will totally make it worth your while in future if anyone could do this.
Having been used to playing with thousands, I somehow doubt that the reality of playing with a much smaller bank will provide the thrill that appears to override the desire to be profitable. Making money from sports is not, or shouldn't be, a high, any more than going to work is a high (unless you're a professional stuntman I guess). Sports investing should be about as exciting as financial investing, and while short-term fluctuations as a percentage of a small starting bank can be relatively huge, but as your bank reaches bigger numbers, most people find their profits are not scalable and need to be realistic about their expectations.
Monday, 28 February 2011
Always One
I'm not sure that the BBC meant the above comment to be taken literally, but the Academy Awards are a good opportunity to earn some Premium Charge credits, if not to win a huge amount. Upsets are relatively rare, and because many films are represented in multiple categories, you can often glean some insight into what films are being favoured early on. For example, when the Sound Mixing award goes to Inception, and this film is a leading contender in the Sound Editing category, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that as form goes, this is as reliable as it gets.
Similarly, when The King's Speech Director Tom Hooper wins Best Director as the second favourite, the price of The King's Speech (backed in November) for Best Picture is likely to shorten. It dropped from about 1.35 to 1.18 on the 'news', a link I mentioned after last year's awards. Colin Firth won Leading Actor, and even at 1.02 managed to bring the price on Best Picture down to 1.1.
It's not that easy of course, but the chances are good that you can at worst break even and get those all important losers on your side for the PC. When all was said and done, I showed a net loss of £12.38 (thanks to a £681 loss on True Grit in the Cinematography category - note to self "you know nothing about Cinematography") - but the boost to the PC Total Charges means this was a good loss. There's always one shocker! It was Sound Editing a couple of years ago.
One of the things I like about this style of betting is that the events come thick and fast, and there is little time for self-pity after a loss because the next category is right there. Contrast the above loss on Cinematography with a similar loss on football, and the latter would discombobulate me for days.
Sunday, 27 February 2011
Cognitive Bias
“To neurophysiologists, who research cognitive functions, the emotionally driven appear to suffer from cognitive deficits that mimic certain types of brain injuries. Not just partisan political junkies but ardent sports fans, the devout, even hobbyists—anyone with an intense emotional interest in a subject loses the ability to observe it objectively. You selectively perceive events. You ignore data and facts that disagree with your main philosophy. Even your memory works to fool you, as you selectively retain what you believe in, and subtly mask any memories that might conflict. Studies have shown that we are actually biased in our visual perception—literally, how we see the world—because of our belief systems. This cognitive bias is not an occasional problem. It is a systematic source of errors. And it is the reason most people are terrible investors.”Barry Ritholtz in The Washington Post
League Cup Final
If the League Cup, aka Carling Cup, final between Arsenal v Birmingham City today were a league game, I would have Arsenal at 1.505, Birmingham at 9.08 and the Draw at 4.45, and while it is not a league game, the argument that it is a Cup Final and will somehow play out differently is a thin one. Certainly for Arsenal, this game will not be top of their priorities this season, but they are in the final with their first chance of a trophy in six years, so they'll be trying. With the odds at 1.44, 8.8 and 5.2 respectively, I find some value in the draw, with a view to laying off if the game starts to open up, and switching to Arsenal.
Saturday, 26 February 2011
Bewildered And Depressed
Strong draw picks this weekend are Cesena v Chievo Verona, Arles-Avignon v Brest, Racing Santander v Villareal and Kaiserslautern v Hamburg. The strike rate on these this season is 34.2%.
Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster tips this week are Wolves v Blackpool (3.5), Everton v Sunderland (3.50) and West Ham v Liverpool (3.25).
For home value picks, I have Stoke City (1.96) v West Bromwich Albion, Sporting de Gijon (2.02) v Real Zaragoza, Monaco (2.04) v Caen and Hoffenhein (2.16) v Mainz '05.
I had Valenciennes as amazing value at 2.26 to beat Lorient, until I noticed that their code for the spreadsheet was 'VLN' not 'VAL' which is Valenica's, and all of a sudden, the value was not so good, although still worth a small interest actually.
I have abandoned keeping the ratings going on all leagues bar the top 5, i.e. EPL, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga. It was interesting, but it wasn't making me any money, and the time can be better spent elsewhere. No longer will I risk Eintracht Frankfurt being mistaken for East Fife! I'm actually finding just five leagues more than enough. One of the problems with football is that come the weekend, and there's a whole slew of matches, and with so much choice, it is hard to focus. I actually almost prefer it when there are just a handful of games, and there is time to look at each one in depth. Choice leaves me bewildered and depressed. Well, maybe not, but it does make it hard to focus.
Friday, 25 February 2011
Cata-Strophic
It seems that often when reviewing the weekend's results on here, I mention a late goal that either cost me a win or gave me a win. It's the late goals that cost me money that are more remembered, although over time these things clearly even themselves out. It's part of the game, and while it is annoying when they go against you, the strategy of locking in a profit 'because you can' rather than 'because it is value to do so' will cost you money in the long run. Ian Erskine posts on this subject today:
No football today. I often get mail about people who cannot make gambling work for them and usually think they are unlucky and then move on. The last three months I have struggled and know exactly how those people feel. I often mention winning and do not like to dwell on losing as it is part of the game and you have to move on. In the week I layed the draw in the Nottingham Forest v Preston match at 1.85 for a reasonable sum with about 20 minutes to go and the match poised at 1-1. Forest scored in the 92nd minute and it was happy days. I could have got out then but it was injury time so why bother with a minute or so to go, Preston equalised in the 96th minute for that to go down the swanny. Last night I made almost exactly the same play in the Sporting v Rangers match but at slightly lower odds. Sporting score with about 8 minutes to go, I could have got out. Didn’t! Rangers score in the 92nd minute and that too goes down the swanny. Now of course when it happens it hurts and we can curse our stupidity for not getting out or whatever. The facts are it is gambling and it will happen but in the grand scheme over time these moves have made me much more than I have lost. We all have tough times and that is the nature of the beast. The break will come and I will go on a good run maybe starting today or this weekend. It is not fate, it is not bad luck it is just plain old gambling!I do accept that when you have backed something of an outsider, and thus stand to make a significant percentage profit, it would be hard to justify not trading out at say 1.04, even you considered the true odds to be 1.03. There was a discussion on Patient Speculation recently, where the example was a horse named Strophic that had been backed at 5.9 had traded in-running at 1.04 before finishing fourth. Apart from the fact that it would have been nigh on impossible (for me anyway) to determine whether 1.04 was value or not in the heat of the battle, giving up four ticks would have been very cheap insurance. My comments on laying off for the sake of it are typically written from a football match viewpoint, where the back price is seldom anything like 5.9, and thus the four ticks is more significant. If I back at anything like 5.9, it is usually because I think that price will shorten, rather than because I think it will go on to win, and as you all know, I don't go near horses anyway!
Thursday, 24 February 2011
Betfair Woes
So close! With the Total Charges at 19.96%, I fell just shy of avoiding the Premium Charge first the first time this year. A little more effort this week, and no big wins, should put me over that threshold, although I'll take the big win and the extra payment if I have a choice!
It doesn't look as if it'll be the Utah Jazz giving me that next big win though. After losing their coach of twenty plus years a couple of weeks ago, they have now traded their best player Deron Williams to New Jersey, a move which makes sense long-term for the franchise, if not for the immediate future. So the heart of the team that was capable of coming back from double digit deficits is ripped out, and I expect them to finish the season rather lamely. Last night they played in Dallas, and I had the Mavericks value at 1.95 giving 9.5. Dallas won by 19 on a night where I went five out of six on the handicaps, with just the New York Knicks letting me down on Carmelo Anthony's debut. I needed them to win by 6.5, and they won 114-108.
When I was growing up, the West Indies were a force to be reckoned with in cricket, but not these days. South Africa looked very generous at 1.4, and while they drifted out to about 1.7, West Indies never looked like winning. Australia look value at 1.45 v New Zealand in the next game, and with a view to a trade, England look worth a bet at 3.0 v India, but be warned that trading cricket is not really my forte.
Meanwhile, Betfair's share price continues to slide, and with continuing problems with their web site over the past few weeks, (which Betfair fail to explain), their PR department must be overworked. The Casino Happy Hour promo from a few months back is about to be ruled upon by the Advertising Standards Authority which could further damage their reputation.
The huge furore than ensued towards the end of last year following an apparently botched Betfair promo seems to have triggered one or more public complaints with Britain's advertising watchdog, the Advertising Standards Association.Now if only someone could get the Premium Charge ruled unlawful, and Betfair have to repay that money. That would be a nice windfall!
In response to an enquiry this week, ASA spokesman Matt Wilson advised: "Further to your query, the ASA did launch a formal investigation into the Betfair "Casino happy hour promotion". We will be publishing our findings in this case shortly."
Players on gambling message boards across the internet posted numerous complaints that Betfair not only withdrew an apparently badly designed promo that gave players an advantage, but subsequently made a number of controversial decisions regarding player account balances, despite the fact that the punters involved claimed they had complied with the promo T&Cs.
In one now infamous incident, a Portuguese player claimed that Euro 32 000 was 'reclaimed' from his bank account by the gambling group, an occurrence that motivated him to launch complaints with a slew of banking & licensing jurisdictions & trade associations.
The situation was further exacerbated by the lack of general & public statements on the row by Betfair - a surprising omission given the high level of complaints & the ill-will which greeted the manner in which the debacle was handled.
This sort of issue is not without precedent in the industry; one of the more memorable cases occurred some years ago when a major online gambling group erred on a promotion, & absorbed the consequent multi-million dollar costs itself rather than passing them on through disqualifications on players who had taken part.
The outcome of the ASA investigation will be keenly followed by the player community. Although the ASA lacks real teeth in a punitive sense, its decisions receive wide publicity, and an adverse finding against Betfair could exacerbate an already bad PR problem.
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Exhibition Games
West Ham United sent Burnley packing easily enough to complete a nice weekend for my FA Cup picks, (three for three) and with Real Sociedad beating Mallorca, Football Elite went four for six this weekend, to complete one of the 'better' weekends of the season.
Mug (hopefully not his given name) had a comment on my Shoot Out Logic post saying:
tonight the same logic we meet in NBA all star gamewhich I think means that in an exhibition game, go for the outsider. This strategy is profitable for pre-season games in many sports, especially NFL, where the price seems to assume a competitive game, whereas these games seldom feature many starters, at least not for long. Winning is not everything in these matches - no one cares - so there seems to me no reason to back the favourite. In the NBA All-Star game, no defence is played, and the outcome is a crap shoot. How the West getting 1.5 were available at 2.22 was very strange, but despite thinking this was great value, these are not games to go too crazy on. The Totals Line of 268.5 shows just how seriously the players take this game.
Jake over at The Bankbuilder blog wrote an excellent post which I'm unashamedly copying here (in part so that I know where to find it in the future):
J.P. McManus "Racing is a great leveller. The day you think you have mastered the game, you will be made to pay for it the following day.What you must do is build up a bank of experience that allows you to reduce and eliminate as far as possible the factors that make for foolish betting. In a word, you act to strict ground rules always and you endeavour to become an investor rather than a pure addictive gambler..."
Very strong paragraph. What does this mean to me?
(1) Betting bank...An amount suitable for the inevitable losing runs.
(2) Plan..What bets to make and how to bet them in order to maximize your gains and minimize your losses.
(3) Loss acceptance...Ability to accept a loss and make the same wager the next positive betting opportunity.
(4) Never willingly settle for less then acceptable value.
(5) Patience to wait for and invest only on the advantage spots...and the rule is sometimes you wait a long time.
(6) The ability and willingness to work hard and gain an edge on the competition ie. the bookmakers or the betting public.
(7) Playing to win and not playing to lose. There's a big difference. This means passing winners (below fair odds), avoiding guilty throw-away bets, races where there are too many variables for a confident wager etc.
(8) Confidence in making your own decisions and avoiding the influence of so-called experts and 'smart money'.
(9) Emotional control. Avoiding emotionally connecting to wins and losses and their sequences.
(10) The positive belief that you can win and once you seriously believe this you'll have all the confidence to make the decisions which in turn will make you successful.
