Saturday, 21 February 2009

Draw No Bet


It’s disappointing that the DRAW NO BET market on Barclay's Premier League games is so illiquid. For example, a paltry £84 as I write traded on Stoke City v Portsmouth.

As I have mentioned on here, I maintain Elo based ratings of the teams in my unique, not yet patented, Cassini Ratings And Performance system and at the below odds on Betfair, the following are value:

Aston Villa at 2.54; Stoke City at 1.92; West Ham United at 2.42; Wigan Atletic at 2.3.

Putting into practice my belief that there may be more value in the lower reaches of senior football, I have a few quid on Weymouth (4.0) at home to Rushden and Diamonds (this ‘appears’ to be great value, but I fear I am missing something), Altrincham (2.08) v Woking and the draw (3.55) Kettering Town v Torquay United.

The liquidity in the Blue Square regional leagues is poor. I have a few Mr. Optimistic bets out there, but I would be surprised if more than a few are matched. AFC Wimbledon might be one of them though. They are on a roll right now, and promotion beckons, and after that they are just one promotion away from the league. What a great achievement that would be.
2:56pm Update: I have also been matched on AFC Wimbledon (1.5), Worcester City (1.73), Cambridge United (1.48), Chelmsford (1.45), Altrincham (2.08), Fleetwood (2.48), Crawley Town (1.61), Histon (1.77), Oxford United (2.04) plus the draw at 3.45 in Barrow v Grays Athletic.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

There remains uncertainty over which players will be available for the Terras match against Rushden and Diamonds because players are being allowed to leave the club if they have found themselves employment elsewhere.

Admission prices will therefore be reduced to:

Adults £10, Concessions £5 and Children £1.

Taken from Weymouth. Perhaps this is what you've missed?

Curly

Cassini said...

Thanks Curly - sounds like that is exactly what I missed. "If it seems too good to be true, it probably is..." Oh well, I just have a snall interest an you never know.

Rob The Builder said...

Er, yes, hope you got out in time. Weymouth 0 Rushden 9. Umm

Anonymous said...

Hope it was not a spread bet.

Your reputation is now in tatters Signor Cassini.

TG. :-).

Anonymous said...

Never bet on the outcome of a match you know nothing about.

School boy error.

Den

Cassini said...

Cheers for your support!

Curly - thanks, appreciated the warning. If I'd read your comment earlier I would have traded out.

Rob The Builder - no, the whole £10 has gone!

John - I have no reputation (at least not on football), and before you say it - yes, it may be a while before I get one!

Den - I agree that due diligence was not applied here, and even if it was only for £10 it should have been, but if I only bet on matches I knew something about, I'd never make any bets or money! Barrow and Grays Athletic? I know nothing about these teams except their ratings. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but so long as I come out ahead overall then everything is cool.