Sunday 9 January 2011

Betting: For Entertainment Purposes Only


A refreshing response to my comment on the Expat Punter's post from earlier. I was hoping that it wouldn't be taken the wrong way, and Rob made a considered reply which deserves posting in full here.

You're spot on there when you say that you got the feeling it was published in a hurry. It was, kinda. To be honest I wanted to post something that wasn't just a few lines of text followed by a P&L and recent BF forum posts steered me towards that subject. Though it may seem like it my post wasn't designed to be an exercise in fishing but I'll bet there's plenty who have read it will think to the contrary.

There are many folk out there who are quick to proffer their advice to the newbies (like obtain value, staking plans etc) but I wonder just how many practice what they preach on a daily basis. I was discussing your post with a friend over breakfast and wondering how to respond without coming across as a total know nothing (since I've read and re-read my original post and I now realise I could have maybe written it a little differently).

I'm not advocating that you should dive into a market regardless of the price, far from it, but I do think that the whole concept of 'value' is basically subjective. One man's meat is another man's poison. You can still be a loser overall by obtaining (your own perceived) value IF your particular selection method sucks. Just because your selection wins doesn't mean that it was a value price. For me value has no bearing on the outcome whatsoever, all it does is maximise your actual betting bank balance IF your selection method does not suck.

The crux of all of this though lies in the attitude of the individual and what his reasons for betting are. The way I see it is that a very small percentage of people do this for a living - there's no such thing as a 'fun' bet for those people. The rest are made up of complete mugs, thrill bettors, hobbyists, wannabe pros, etc etc. For the majority it doesn't really matter if they are really obtaining value from one bet to the next as they aren't thinking in terms of being in it for the long haul as undoubtedly the professional punters do.

It was refreshing to read that you think that one can actually have an edge without being aware of what exactly it is. I think too many people think they possess this edge factor when in fact they don't. I personally don't claim to have anything Holy Grailish up my sleeve though there's days when I wish I did. One thing I have taken away with me from your post is that I can certainly do better that I currently am. If you started with a hundred quid and now pay PC then IT CAN BE DONE :-)

I think one of the biggest factors affecting our individual circumstances, good or bad, is basically down to that other giant in the world of betting advice - discipline. Without a disciplined approach to all this there's no amount of value, edges, or the like in the world that will keep us from drowning. I'd like to thank you for picking on me (kidding) as you've given me some food for thought. Best wishes and good luck.
Just a couple of comments before the Indianapolis Colts v New York Jets game gets underway. Agreed, that a winner doesn't mean the bet was value. Nor does a loser mean that the bet wasn't value. You could be offered 2-1 on a coin toss, and on a single spin you will win or lose 50% of the time, but 2-1 is a value price every time. A lot of people, especially older punters raised on horse-racing, fail to understand this. As for the majority of bettors being "complete mugs, thrill bettors, hobbyists, wannabe pros, etc etc. For the majority it doesn't really matter if they are really obtaining value from one bet to the next as they aren't thinking in terms of being in it for the long haul as undoubtedly the professional punters do", that's fine with me. As Mouldhouse said, anyone serious about making money from gambling needs all the above, and lots of them, because obviously, without losers, there would be no winners. Oh, and yes, we need discipline.

1 comment:

Rich said...

Discussing "value" as related to the probability of the result of a sporting event shows a fundamentally flawed understanding of what the odds on offer means. I quote "Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly," said Howard Martin, a noted expert on how odds are calculated, "there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line." "

Although that comment refers to US sports spreads, it's equally true of all odds.