Sunday 25 May 2014

English Premier League - 2013-14

As with the other four leagues already reviewed, draws in the EPL were down on their long term averages, and the decline was steepest in England. With a strike rate of just 20.5%, draws were 22% down on the 10 year average and 23% down on their 5 year average. 20.5% was the lowest anywhere, and it is not a surprise that backing the draw in every match would have cost you 74.39 points. Somehow, the XX Draws managed to be profitable.

As in Spain and Germany, the Favourite-Longshot bias is present, and if we look at the 380 matches in five groups of around 76 each, the draw returns break down as follows:

The top two - favourite - quintiles made a small loss, and the benchmark of backing sub 4.0 is down 34.88 points, much worse than the XX Draws which eked out a profit in this league of 3.54 points.

The Unders fared well in this league too. Backing the Under 2.5 goals in every match would have lost you 12.92 points, while the XX Draws backed as Unders made a profit of 5.41 points.

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