Sunday 25 May 2014

Bundesliga - 2013-14

The Bundesliga sees more goals than the other top leagues, and thus the draw expectancy is always a little lower than the others. At 20.9%, 2013-14 saw the draws down almost 17% on the 10 year average and down 16% on the 5 year average.

Backing the draw in every Bundesliga match would have cost you 52.91 points.

As in Spain, the Favourite-Longshot bias is present, and if we look at the 306 matches in five groups of around 61 each, the draw returns break down as follows:
The top - favourite - quintile makes a small profit, but the benchmark of backing sub 4.0 is down 21.34 points, a little worse than the XX Draws total of down 17.10 points

The Unders fared very well in this league. Backing the Under 2.5 goals in every match would have lost you 28.91 points, while the XX Draws backed as Unders made a profit of 4.14 points.

Next up, the English Premier League.

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