Saturday, 24 May 2014

La Liga - 2013-14

La Liga is never the best hunting ground for draws, and like all the other top league, the draws were down on their long term averages here too, but only a little short of the 5 year average.

Backing the draw in every La Liga match would have cost you 23.65 points.

Here the Favourite-Longshot bias is present, and if we look at the 380 matches in five groups of around 76 each, the draw returns break down as follows:
The top two - favourite - quintiles make a small profit, but the benchmark of backing sub 4.0 is down 4.70 points, not too far off the XX Draw total of down 3.07 points

The Unders fared relatively well too. Backing the Under 2.5 goals in every match would have lost you 15.76 points, while the XX Draws backed as Unders made a loss of 6.48 points.

Next up, the Bundesliga.

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