Monday, 1 March 2010

Lower League Value?

Thanks for the comments again.

Apologies for the wrong figure in the previous post. Clearly a strike rate of 81% is a lot different to a strike rate of 91% when it comes to the price you’re laying at.

With regard to Maria’s Laying System, there’s no doubt that the selection process was the key to being profitable, but I am working off the basis that my selection process too, is profitable, and by ‘profitable’, I mean that the method is profitable to level stakes. (No staking system in the world can turn a losing system into a profitable one).

Given that this is true, it occurred to me that a progressive staking system like Maria’s should make a profitable method even more profitable, given that the prices being layed on football will be comparable to that in Maria’s range.

It’s just an idea that I am bouncing around right now.

Looking ahead this week, and for once the games in League Two take centre stage.

There are some games that at first glance look like offering great value, but I can only claim a passing interest in this league, and there may well be a good reason why the odds are out of line. One or two key players missing can make a big difference at this level.

Notts County should win by 2 and are 1.45.

One goal home winners are:

Torquay United (2.8) v Dagenham and Redbridge
Aldershot Town (2.32) v Bradford City
Cheltenham Town (2.3) v Hereford United
Rochdale (1.98) v Rotherham United

Away winner by 1 goal, Port Vale (2.22) @ Darlington.

In League One, Bristol Rovers to win by 2 v Stockport County at 1.66, and Southampton by one v Huddersfield Town at 2.26.


Anonymous said...

How can you say Notts County SHOULD win by two when it's clearly far more likely that they don't win by two? Somewhere in the region of 75% they don't win by two in fact despite your claim of hitting 43% of your predicted two-goal winners on the nose (if it is true, there is no way on earth you can keep that 43% up over a proper sample)

Cassini said...

I say Notts County SHOULD win by two because that is the result that will keep them closest to their current rating. I am using 'should' in the sense that it is "used to express expectation or probability".

The 43% only applied to the EPL, not League Two, where the number of bullseyes is just 14%, but the sample size is smaller.

Across all leagues, the +2 teams win by that exact margin 25% of the time.

Anonymous said...

But that's where you are going horribly wrong. There is no value in that selection long term.

Around 44% of the time a team priced at 1.45 will win by two goals or more. There is no value in that, especially if you take off commission.

Anonymous said...

Just went to the correct score market and the shortest price is 2-0. Not exactly rocket science is it, but where is the value?

stewart said...

annon if you dont agree with what you read, dont read it, go and do your own thing. Cas i find your blog and ratings first class

Anonymous said...

I can't see any evidence that these ratings are working so why should people be following them and losing money? I am sure if they are making money then cassini will have no problem pointing out the error of negative posters by putting up some evidence of thumping profits.

Cassini said...

Settled Ref Id Placed Description Avg. Odds Stake Status DR
(£) CR
(£) Balance
04:10 4248592 2010-03-03
Premium Charge for week commencing 22 Feb 10 - - - (1,237.96)