Saturday, 6 March 2010

Vive La France

Quite a day in the world of football investing, and a tough ending to the Lens v Paris St Germain game in France. I had this game as a draw, but Football Elite had Lens at 2.36 as their one Recommended Bet for today, and I went with Football Elite and what happened? With the last kick of the game, in the 94th minute, PSG equalised! Ouch.

I really need to have a set plan in place for these situations. I tend to decide on a whim how to play it, and today just wasn't my day.

It was a better day in England, with the highlight being the 3-1 score in the Arsenal v Burnley game coming in at 13.5. West Ham let the side down by losing by one instead of winning by one at home to Bolton Wanderers, and Manchester United at least won at Wolves, even if they fell one goal short of the expected margin.

One of two in the Cup, with a draw at Fulham (3.45) v Tottenham Hotspur ensuring a profit here. Chelsea by 3 over Stoke City tomorrow, after Aston Villa beat Reading by one in the first game.

Blackpool, Cardiff City and Nottingham Forest all won by the one goal expected in the Championship at better than evens, but Bristol City lost. I had no less than six draws predicted here, and while only one was a winner (Plymouth Argyle v Preston North End), the trend of most of these games finishing Under 2.5 goals continued and gave me 5 winners to soften the blow.

The predicted draws in the Premier League also show the Under 2.5 goals as a value bet, with an unsustainable 80% of matches finishing under so far.

It gets worse from here on. In League One I had four teams to win by two, and only one (Charlton Athletic) managed to win as predicted. Swindon Town managed to lose by four, Leeds United were held to a draw, and Norwich City won by an extra goal.

League Two showed why games at this level need more study. Aldershot Town, Port Vale and Rotherham United all lost at home showing that there's a good reason why they were priced so high!

The Conference? Don't ask. Luton won, as did Kettering Town and Stevenage, but the latter two at short prices (but still value...).

In Germany only one bullseye from 7 (Werder Bremen v VfB Stuttgart draw).

In Spain another 3-1 scoreline paid off as Deportivo La Coruna beat Tenerife by the expected two goals. Real Madrid may yet win by two, but currently are drawing 2-2. 1 out of 3 here. Update: Real won 3-2

A bon jour in France though, with 5 bulls-eyes from 7 matches, even if I missed out on the draw at Lens as mentioned above! The ratings had bulls-eyes at Auxerre, Boulogne, Lens, Rennes and St Etienne with only Nice and Sochaux disappointing.

Tomorrow? One goal home winners predicted in the three La Ligue matches at Bordeaux, Grenoble and Marseille. Why are Grenoble available at 2.54? They are at home to Le Mans who won away to Boulogne in their last game, but Boulogne are my bottom rated team in this league and Grenoble's form over the past six matches is better. It looks like a gift, but it's not usually that easy. By way of contrast, Bordeaux are 1.62 and Marseille are at 1.49.

Finally today's two games in Italy, and no joy here. Fiorentina lost, and AS Roma drew.


Rob The Builder. said...

Sadly, Leeds didn't win. My strategy for the rest of the season will be to lay Leeds, and back their competitors for promotion. If we fail to get promoted, at least I'll make a few bob.

Cassini said...

At the start of the season, my son and I thought it might pay to lay the big four of Leeds, Norwich, Charlton and Southampton in evry game, but that idea didn't last too long! Let's hope Leeds play Palace next season - in the Championship!