Friday, 5 March 2010


- a person who acts in contradiction to his or her stated beliefs or feelings.

I shouldn’t, I really shouldn’t, but as I tell my parole officer, it’s so hard to resist…

Nigel Evans posted this comment yesterday on my post about value potentially existing at any price. Missing the point completely, he had this to say:

Anyone backing at odds on is a mug punter, it's no surprise you're losing.

I'm always happy to lay the mugs at odds on thinking they're buying money.

"If Manchester United are priced at 1.99 at home to Burnley, that price is value." whoopdy doo what a convincing argument you put forward. You know as well as I do that just wont happen and if anything the opposite occurs with odds on shots as people like you think you're buying value when in reality you just push the price in even further - mug
Let’s see - “Anyone backing at odds on is a mug punter”?
Tuesday 25th February 2010: “So, it's likely that my main bet will be something like £40 @ 1.92 in the Over 2.5 goals market

Saturday 27th February 2010: “The Chelsea v Man City game has lots of players who can score goals and the market price for Over 2.5 goals is 1.87 and I have taken it.”

Wednesday 3rd March 2010: “My bets today are to lay England @ 1.42 and back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.91
What do 1.87, 1.91 and 1.92 all have in common? (For those unfamiliar with the decimal format, they are all odds-on). And from where were those quotes pulled?

Nigel’s own blog! Modestly titled “The Supreme Master of Trading”:
I started trading in 2005 and found that I had a natural instinct for it. Trading comes naturally to me as I have an enormous capacity for mental arithmetic which has served me all my life. Although I possess great gifts. I strive, always, to help others who are less fortunate than me.
Great gifts that don't quite extend to noticing the full-stop after 'gifts'.
Opening post. 21.Feb.2010:
“Ah well ! Here we go ! Up until today I have only tried to have fun with my trading and have been trading on as many as ten events every day. From now on I intend being more sensible and am going to impose a period of thirty days of misery where I must use all of my best brain to try to make money without having any fun.”
For someone who has been trading since 2005, with ‘great gifts’ and apparently multiple brains, I would have to say that progress could be described as slower than expected.


SleazyNick said...

Let the blog-wars begin!

If man utd were 1.99 at home to burnley i wouldnt be able to beleive my luck!!!

Value can even exist at 1.01 amazingly enough.

Curly said...

My mother always taught me that if I had nothing nice to say then just say nothing at all. Fairly good advice, I'd say.

In fairness to "the supreme master of trading" you have painted him in a slightly bad light. The follow up to your first quote is as follows: "I am sure you will find my blog informative and that you leave it as a better person than you were when you entered it. And if you believe this, you'll believe and bloody thing!".

However, this quote from halfway down the page leads me to think perhaps he's as clued up as you suspect, and possibly worth the vilification from this post: "My bet on Over 2.5 goals was under attack from the layers from the kickoff. If I had jumped out after 15 minutes , I would have lost 25% of my £40 stake. The betting was irrational. I cannot understand why people can react to things that have not happened in a short period of time".

Anyway I, for one, will be happy when all this fuss about your ratings and odds on value (I'm with you on this one) stops and normal service resumes.


Rob The Builder. said...

C'mon Curly, it's a damn sight more interesting a read than a Psycoff-style 'we made some money, here's a P&L' blog post.

Isn't 'I've only tried to have fun with my trading' code for 'I've lost a shedload' ?

Anonymous said...

I personally like his quote:

"The betting was irrational. I cannot understand why people can react to things that have not happened in a short period of time"

For being so opinionated as to make comments on what he perceives others are doing wrong, he doesn't appear to grasp the fact that other traders also have opinions, and 'Can Understand' and are quicker to react to cover eventualities!


Anonymous said...

His dismay at over 2.5 goals drifting because there was no goal in the first 15 mins did make me laugh...must be a piss take - long live the Master.

Anonymous said...

A theory on why there is less juice in lower odds (if not odds on) would be that there is much more robustness or exposure to the short price selection over the long price i.e. the betting attention put on Federer for Wimbledon is much greater than say Cilic.

Doesn't work for match betting but I'd agree with Matt that the shorter selections become overbet.

Obviously doesn't follow that short is bad, long is good, but in my experience there are much more oppurtunities at the longer prices.

wibdib said...

wheres all the vitriol over the past few days come from????
Cant we all get along?
If you dont like what you read then dont continue to read it, its that simples!!

Anonymous said...

Well done for exposing Nigel for the complete bag of bullshit and hot air that he is. This guy is the second biggest clown on the internet, but his mouth is connected to the **** of the biggest clown, the Geek.

He no idea about trading and never will. He is just a mental bankrupt and he has absolutely no idea.