Monday, 10 September 2012

NFL 2012

Hopefully some of you have stopped over at Betting Expert and read my piece on the NFL, and pointers for betting on the games. This sport is one of my favourites for trading, with price movements on every possession, and plenty of twists and turns.

DENVER v Pittsburgh (9.9.12)
With two games remaining from the first full round of matches, the season is off to a good start from a trading perspective. One of the best trading games on Sunday night, actually early Monday morning because it was the late game, was the Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers game. Here's the chart from the game (left), which Denver started at 1.79 / 1.8 to win, traded at 3.05, with a few lead changes, and eventually winning 31-19, a result that was somewhat flattering to Denver who only extended to that lead with a late pick six as Pittsburgh drove late in the game. I ignored my own advice on this, thinking that a third quarter Steelers drive was stalling, I went in a little too big on Denver, only to see them commit two Personal Fouls (total 30 yards) and ultimately give up a touchdown. The red on my screen matched the red in my face, as it looked like earlier profits and more would be wiped out, but Peyton Manning helped me out of trouble.

Most of the earlier profits came from the New Orleans Saints v Washington Redskins game. The Saints looked a little short pre-game, with the much vaunted 2011 Heisman winning Quarterback Robert Griffin III making his first appearance for the Redskins since being drafted second earlier this year. 1.26 after going three and out on their first possession was too tempting, and while I didn't let the bet run, I did OK. The Redskins went 3-0 up, 7-3 down and led at the end of Q1 17-7. Unfortunately I'm not a gambler, so I was out and green all over and re-hydrating by then.

The Redskins won by 8, thanks to a great performance from Griffin. Laying at short prices early in a game like the NFL gives you a lot of options. Yes, you can see that short price jump on board the 1.01 express and your money go up in smoke, but on any given Sunday, any team can win or lose (so the NFL like to tell us, and to some extent is true) but 1.01 expresses are the exception rather than the rule. If the worst comes to the worst, you can usually find an opportunity to reduce the loss.

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