Saturday, 29 September 2012

Identical Differences

One area that is becoming more and more intriguing is that of the relationship between prices in different markets for a match.

There are two games in the EPL this afternoon that are remarkably similar. While the prices are constantly changing, at the time of writing the prices on some of the more liquid markets for the Norwich City v Liverpool and Fulham v Manchester City games are as follows:

Home: 1.8 / 1.81, Draw: 4.05, Away: 5.0 Half-Time 0-0: 3.325

All but identical, but when we look at the Under / Over markets, there are some differences. More goals are expected in London as the four Overs markets are priced (1.5 to 4.5) 1.275, 1.795, 3.05, 6.4 compared with NOR v LIV at 1.31, 1.905, 3.325 and 7.0 respectively. And the Full-Time 0-0 is only 14.25 at Norwich, but 15.5 at Fulham.

The market seems to be confused, or at least inconsistent, and where there is confusion, there is opportunity. The HT 0-0 is presumably better value at Fulham than at Norwich. Or is the market so sophisticated that it expects more second half goals at Fulham than at Norwich, with the probability of first half goals the same at both games?

More on this subject later in the year, meanwhile my own ratings have historically rated Liverpool as a better team than they are, based in no small part to their ability last season to create chances, but not convert them. The theory is that sooner or later, the luck will change, and those shots that hit the woodwork and stay out, will start to go in, but even so, Liverpool look very short at 1.8. I still have Liverpool rated fourth in my ratings, generous to say the least.

I mentioned last week that Tony's Lays were bearing fruit, and for those following, here are his lays for this weekend, including one winner already:

1 comment:

Tony said...

Aswell as laying these teams i also started to get involved in my 2 matches in running this week. Both dortmund (tue) and schalke (fri) took early 2-0 leads and went to 1.1 and 1.07 so I took a position on both these matches and backed when the scores went 1-2 and 2-2. I know you have mentioned a similar approach in american football before, albeit in a game that has many more swings in prices, but I thought I would have a go on my away lays too. Maybe I got lucky but looking back over the results there seems to be an opportunity in quite a few of the games so far - both manchester teams came from behind against southampton, 2 late goals for barcelona to win 2-1. Worth a further look??