Sunday, 23 September 2012

Trouble At Home

An unusual reason for a postponement hit one of the XX Draw selections today, as Cagliari v AS Roma was called off after Cagliari president encouraged fans to show up for a game that Serie A had decided would be played in an empty stadium due to safety / security concerns with their new home.

I don't have too much data on empty stadium fixtures, so perhaps it was for the best. It's probably reasonable to assume that home advantage is somewhat diluted in such circumstances. Cagliari were the first Italian side I saw live, (with the great Gigi Riva playing), so I've always had them as my Italian team. It certainly wasn't the best of weekends for the XX Draws with just three draws from eleven selections with the best being the perfect results of Catania v Napoli and Athletic Bilbao v Malaga from the Extended category.

The second Classic selection of the weekend was another victim to a late(ish) penalty, as Udinese beat AC Milan 2-1, and the other Extended selections today were Mallorca v Valencia (2-0) and Liverpool v Manchester United (1-2) (and another late penalty victim).

The surprisingly impressive Bundesliga selections had a profitable day on the draws, as I fluked a 2-2 draw in the Werder Bremen v Stuttgart match, but Hoffenheim beat Hannover '96 3-1. A lot of goals, which is never good.

Other tipsters had mixed results over the weekend too. In profit were Football Elite, who had Mallorca v Valencia (DNB) and a 2-0 win, and while Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster selections might be struggling, his Premier Betting service is very solid with two more winners from three this weekend. Tony's Tips I mentioned yesterday, and they remained in profit on the weekend with Real Madrid's game being postponed.

Little Al had one profitable selection - the Manchester City v Arsenal draw, and after 9 bets is +0.00 (ROI 0.00%).

In the loss column on the weekend were Drawmaster, Griff's Selections, Griff's Over / Unders, Jon (Talkbet), Neil's Selections, and Premier Edge.

Backing Ian Erskine's Lay the Draw selection found it's first winner this weekend, RKC Waalwijk v VVV finishing 1-1. Although we are down on these to date, the selections are 7 of 8 on the Under 2.5 which suggests we have been a little unlucky. 

I shall publish the table after the weekend's fixtures complete tomorrow night.

There were a few more comments on Rick Ford's vanishing posts, with SoccerDude reminding us that:
As I pointed out when I first (indirectly) mentioned Rick's blog, its "where the magic happens". And indeed, all his posts have "magically" disappeared.
Very droll. Little Al kindly offers anyone who might be interested, which is likely no one, that he has copies of all the posts. I hesitate to ask why Al might have these, but he does, should you desire them.

Rob the Builder, stops by for a rare visit to say:
I'm afraid that, if my ageing memory is holding up, Rick is a bit of a serial offender. I recall that he was in my first blogroll back in 2008 and his posting at that time did tend towards a 'distorted reality' - words of a pro, actions of an amateur.
Use of the word 'amateur' suggests Rob has a career in diplomacy should the building thing doesn't work out.

I hope some of you followed my NFL Under 42.5 selection of Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolos Colts (2.02) which was a winner, albeit a little close at the end finishing 22-17. The result of the Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos tip has yet to be determined.

Back to the XX Draws for a moment, and I wasn't aware until yesterday that one of my subscribers is Daily 25. He has some good things to say about this blog, and the XX Draws, although after this weekend's setbacks, his next review may not be quite so flattering! While stakes are relative, Daily25 bets in pretty big numbers by my standards, but he clearly has the right mindset to see the big picture and ride out the lows until the inevitable highs come along. 
XX draws is a system I have a lot of trust in. It has been developed by Cassini of the very good Green All Over blog. A highly recommended read as he not only gives out some great advice once in a while, but the best part about cassini is that he doesn’t hold back and likes to start arguments with those he feels are doing the wrong thing, or who he feels are just plain idiots (Why he hasn’t had a dig at me as of yet I’m not sure, we’ll I am fairly sure it’s because I get about 50 people reading this blog compared to his many thousands and he has no time for us little meaningless fish). The reason I like this system is simple, people hate draws and no one ever bets on them, but they happen a hell of a lot, this means for a lot of games the prices available are great value. This is something that has been noted by Jonno at Sportpunter a number of times, people hate to back the unders in most sports as they want to see lots of goals/points. This makes backing unders very profitable in the right circumstances.
I am following the XX Draws and the Extended draws as well as Under 2.5 for each system at $500 per bet. Going off the only stats I can (last years results – I know, I know) I am hoping to make a bit over 100 points of profit. So anything over $50,000 will be amazing. These picks come out very early in the week and allow me to place the bets whenever I like, and as I have a hell of a lot to do on Saturdays I usually finish these on a Friday night. They are all bets in Top flight leagues so getting on is a non issue. Long losing runs are to be expected with the draws, but the Under 2.5 should see some stability.
Blimey! The pressure is on. Why I haven't had a go at Daily25 is because I admire the sensible approach the author demonstrates. In fact, some of his thoughts there could have been written by me. Unfortunately the Under 2.5 Classic plus Extended are down 0.43 points so far this season, with the draws up just 1.15 points, with the most profitable markets I am following currently being the HT0-0. I expect these differences to close as the season continues, but meanwhile, the portfolio approach seems to work well for Mr Daily. Check his blog out. After two plus years, he has some sound advice - and I suspect his posts will not vanish when a setback is experienced! His mission statement is to "Make $250 per day with sports betting" (Australian dollars) which is about £160 a day. This isn't a goal as such, but for anyone doing this full-time, that total should be achievable as a long-term daily average.

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