Saturday, 8 September 2012

Mr Grumpy

Signor Cassini
Thanks for the comments on the last post. I felt that it was another post worthy of being read out loud to Mrs Cassini (she's still not much into trading), but as I reached the end, I could see a glazed look in her eyes, and I believe she is now upstairs packing her stuff. I am keeping the dogs close, just in case she tries to sneak them into her bags.

The blog that was the initial catalyst for A Football Trader's Path's amusing piece has come forward, and it is Rick Ford's Sports Betting For Fun blog now added to the blogroll. In his defence of the need for four screens, Rick writes:
I don't use all 4 screens for trading (i do use 2) one for the ladders and one for graphs. For the other two, one is used for my works e-mail/network (as i can work from home and have to act as soon as work comes in) and the other is for checking twitter for last second trainer comments and to watch the dialog in a live sports trader room for which a group of traders exchange live trades/tips.
I often work from home too, but on those occasions my work laptop does share the same desk as my TV and my personal PC, but I don't consider it part of my 'trading setup'. I'm not sure that a dedicated screen for Twitter is really necessary. Most browsers these days allow you to have multiple tabs, and for me, one PC with a tab for Twitter and email and other exchanges etc. works just fine, although a smart phone eliminates the need for several of those tabs.

But each to their own. SoccerDude's post said what many of us think, and was an entertaining read, but if someone thinks they need multiple screens, well, they'll soon find out that they need more than that.

I've had a couple of requests to add a new blog to the blogroll, but I have some concerns. fgnba (Football, Golf, NBA) wrote:
I left a message here a few days ago. You have a great blog, and I have been following you with interest for a while now. I have come up with a new blog myself. It's a tipping blog, but one with information about football, golf and the NBA as well. Could you add a link? I will add a link to your blog too.
For the record, the blog is at

fgnba. That name rang a bell. Now some of you readers with longer memories may recall some sports trading blog world drama back in January with a blog called "NBA, Football and Golf tips The bell started ringing louder.

Of course, the similarity in names could be a coincidence, so I did a little more digging.

The drama with fgtips came about for a number of reasons, many explained in this post here. In summary, the blog was full of poorly written posts, lame tips, nonsensical staking suggestions, calling bets trades when they are not, no mention of value or why the tip was considered value, and worst of all, being less than honest about results. 

One example was of four selections priced at 1.27, 1.1, 1.26 and 1.14. The first three won, not surprisingly, but the fourth lost, yet the author began his next post with "After our success on the NBA 2 nights ago (winning 3 out of 4 games)"... Perhaps the author should seek a position writing speeches for Mitt Romney.

The new blog incarnation is no better, at least if the early selections are anything to go by. The two tips so far are: 
1 ) Lay Dustin Johnson at 17.0 (which is the same as a back at 1.0625) in the in-progress BMW Championship. He's currently tied for second, one shot back, trading in the 6.4 / 6.6 range.

2)   Lay Tomas Berdych @ odds of 15.5, (which is the same as a back at 1.069 - quite a longshot) for £10 liable £145 - He's currently trading at 12 / 13.
The justification for laying Berdych:
Berdych has had a good run so far in the championship to get to the semi finals. But now he plays a confident Andy Murray, who is in the form of his life, and is desperate for his first grand slam win. And IF he were to beat Murray, he will more than likely play Novak Djokovic in the final, and it's highly doubtful that Berdych will beat Murray AND Djokovic.
"Highly doubtful" = 1.06 apparently. Clueless.

Frankly, offering tips at these prices without any explanation of why they are considered value, is a waste of time. Considering something "highly doubtful" doesn't cut it. They may well be value lays, but do let us know why you consider them value, and when they lose, don't try to claim victory. My readers are not idiots, at least they shouldn't be after reading some of my posts, but just in case any newcomers stumble across this blog, I would rather not have it tarnished by having a worthless blog referenced on the blogroll, with the implicit approval that accompanies that rare and distinguished honour.

Coincidentally, Soccer Dude took me to task for my treatment of nbafg pgtips or whatever his name is, back in January calling me a bully would you believe!

Thanks to the subscribers who joined the XX Draws Service last week. With the international break, normal service on these will resume next week.

And finally, a new, and of course winning, system has appeared on the Betfair Forum.

Apparently it is from the Mark Iverson School of Betting because, while it works in all matches, it works best on Saturdays. In the Championship. No explanation of why this works so well on Saturdays in this league, but still - the beauty of it is it's simplicity. I've made the original post somewhat readable, but otherwise it is as posted:
Mate, you won’t win money laying the draw, try my system for a month and let me know how you go on. Do it on all Championship fixtures on any given Saturday. It works on all fixtures but I’ve found the Championship most profitable. You bet the draw in the HT market, then you lay the 0-0 in the HT market. If the fixture is 0-0 at HT you only lose about two-fifths of your stake. If it’s 1-0 either way or 2-1, i.e. any team is leading, you are level, but if it’s 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 at HT you get paid out for the draw and also the lay for the 0-0. You only need one 1-1 for every three 0-0s to make a profit. Do it on every fixture, the more you do, the better it works.
While it's commendable to come up with new ideas, or at least this idea was new to me, there seem to me to be a few issues with it. The author makes no mention of prices, which is rather key I would think, and he even condemns it to the trash can himself with his statement that "you only need one 1-1 for every three 0-0s to make a profit". 

Even if that were true, and again the prices you get are kind of critical, in the Championship last season, HT 0-0s exceeded score draws by a ratio of greater than 4:1

I'm in a feisty mood today. 


Average Guy said...

"My readers are not idiots, at least they shouldn't be after reading some of my posts" - that should make a few of your supporters miffed, LOL.

John said...

Hi Cassini, I’ve been a reader of your blog for many years and have come to respect you views and opinions on many things. Pointing out the wrongs of sites such as fgbna and the forum post highlighted is what keeps my coming back, but I have to say you’ve started to come across a bit big headed 
As far as I’m aware you have never used trading as your main form of income. The rights and wrongs of doing this are a topic for another discussion but my reason for pointing this out is that until you have, I don’t think it’s fair for you to tell others what’s right and wrong about the way they trade full time.
I traded Betfair for a number of years as a hobby until one day I lost my job. While looking for employment I upped my trading and found I could make more than I thought – I ended up taking a part time job (2 days a week) to cover bills and topping up the income from Betfair to match my full time wage. I used my spare time to study another qualification and can honestly say the 2 years I carried this out for were the best of my life (so far!). I’m now back in full time employment and trade Betfair as a ‘second income’ rather than a ‘hobby’ – in other words I take it a bit more seriously than I did before.
Some of the lessons I learnt during these 2 years were invaluable. I would never have understood them from textbooks or reading blogs/articles on the internet. It’s only from being put in such a situation that you can fully understand and appreciate what it’s like to trade for a living (or for the majority of your income).
I’m sure the majority of your readers (as you point out, they are all intelligent chaps after all) understand there is no logic to trading differently at the end of the month. I’m sure even Mark understands this himself. But for him it works and when your income depends on how you trade, funnily enough, you carry on doing things that ‘work’ irrespective of how logical they are. One of the biggest lessons I learnt was it’s very hard to change the way you trade if what you do is bringing you a profit. There were parts of my trading I could see would benefit from tweaks here and there but to do so would mean experimenting – something I had neither the time or bank roll to do. (Arguably the issue here is I should not have been relying on trading as an income if I didn’t have the bank sufficient enough to experiment with, but again a topic for another discussion and it was a situation I ended up in rather than choosing due to losing my job). When you are faced with a)trading as you have done which is making you an income or b) tweaking it which may increase profits but also runs the risk of failing, the option most people will chose when their meal ticket is on the line is a). If Mark has found that for psychological reasons he likes to reduce his trading at the end of a month then the maths don’t matter (even thought they should). If he is bringing in profits from working this way then he is probably loathed to change his approach when the downside would mean loss of confidence and other knock on effects that will then harm him (and his family) financially.

John said...

Interestingly, now I’m back in full time employment and the trading income is being used to increase a bank roll rather than pay for clothes, I have been able to experiment with those tweaks. Some worked, some didn’t. Overall I have almost doubled my income through trading since being back in full time work. However, when I relied on the income I couldn’t have afforded some of the losses I made in this tweaking phase. It would have crippled me both mentally and financially. I would have probably given up trading and gone back to full time work and this comment would have never existed! As you haven’t relied on trading as an income I’m not sure if you will get my point.

So rather than berate people like Mark, why not try and understand his reasons for doing it? Creating a discussion on the topic of why you would do this and maybe how you could avoid such illogical behaviour to improve your trading would be a far better read than the now tiresome month end jokes.
A little less of the ‘Cassini knows best’ attitude and a little more humbleness would be a good thing. After all, none of us should be foolish enough to think we know best. Hope you get my point and don’t take it personally! I read your blog because you challenge others so keep that up – just maybe do it a bit more constructively.

Baz said...

Come on Cassini leave poor Mark alone, he's not a robot you know, just a guy who gets tired at the end of the month.And don't start on about why he gets tired at the end of the month and not the beginning or middle, what he does in his personal life is not your business.