Wednesday, 15 July 2020


In the whole scheme of things, it's still a small sample size, but some of you may be interested in the results to date for league matches being played in an empty stadium.

It's a little more garish than my usual more subtle style, but shows the outcomes for backing the Home result using Pinnacle's Closing Odds adjusted to a standard 103% over-round. 

As might be expected, the results so far show that the loss of a crowd has more of an effect on the teams in the top tier of leagues than on teams from the second tier. 

The Bundesliga is complete and the top league showed a big loss, although again, 82 matches is very small, while Bundesliga.2 showed a profit.

Home teams in La Liga are also under-performing with just two rounds to go, with second tier teams just about where they are expected and in Italy, it's a similar pattern.

In England and Portugal, the top teams currently show better than expected returns, but the Championship (where crowds are higher than other second level leagues) shows a drop off in results. The top tier numbers are impacted by the influence of a few big priced winners which, in a small sample, skews the results of course. 

I'll update these numbers at the end of the seasons and maybe make the colours a little less jarring to the eye.

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