Wednesday, 22 July 2020

La Liga 2019-20

La Liga is now ended, and the bad news for serious investors is that for the third consecutive season, the over-round using Pinnacle's Closing prices increased again. 

With the goals per game average at its second lowest in at least 27 years, it's not surprising that backing the Draw blindly was again a profitable strategy, but only just.

Here are the numbers, adjusted to a 103% over-round for the Pinnacle years 2012-2020:
As would be expected, the "Toss-Up" matches have the highest ROI, while the "Close" matches are also profitable long-term. 

I mentioned Deportivo La Coruña's whining against relegation in my last post, and it seems they may refuse to play their postponed last match of the season against promotion hopefuls Fuenlabrada, which is not very deportivamente of them. 

Deportivo are asking for the Segunda División to be expanded to 24 clubs so that both they and Numancia can be reprieved. Normally the response would be to award Fuenlabrada a 1:0 win but that would push Elche out of the final play-off spot, so of course then they would head to court. All rather messy.  

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