Saturday, 18 July 2020

Six Club Play-Offs

Since the National League moved to a six club play-off format in 2017-18, there have been 28 matches hosted by one of the clubs, with two finals at neutral Wembley.

In the regional divisions, all matches are hosted by the higher seeded club, based on their regular season placing, including the final.

Of the 29 matches, only nine have been won by the Home team, with eight Away wins which, the sharper minded of you will soon realise, leaves twelve matches that have resulted in a Draw. 

Using the prices from Oddsportal, and adjusting to an over-round of 103%, the return from blindly backing the Draw is 16.23 units, which is an ROI of almost 56%. Once again, as I'm sure you don't need to be told, an ROI from so few matches is fairly meaningless, but in games such as these, where there is no second leg, the need to not lose can lead to close games. Losing 0:1 when there is a Home leg to come, is a lot different to losing by the same score in an elimination game.

Today's win for Barnet means the National League Play-Off final will be between a former Football League club and a potential debutant. 

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