Tuesday, 21 July 2020

Segunda División - Con Uno To Go

I was hoping to be able to update the final numbers for Spain's Second Tier (Segunda División) today, but there is one match outstanding after the Deportivo La Coruña v Fuenlabrada game was postponed shortly before kick-off yesterday with several of the visiting team's players testing positive for COVID-19.

This was a key match at both ends of the table, with former La Liga Champions Deportivo facing relegation to the third tier and Fuenlabrada looking for a promotion play-off spot. 

The other matches all went ahead, kicking off at the same time as is usual in the final round of matches, but now both teams know what they need to do to achieve their respective goals.

Deportivo need to win by thirteen goals (somewhat unlikely) to avoid relegation, while Fuenlabrada need a draw to replace Elche in the play-offs. 

Elche, you may remember, were relegated in 2015 due to their financial struggles and dropped to the third tier in 2017-18. 

Deportivo, La Liga Champions in 2000, are now crying that it is unfair that other matches have been completed, and the play-offs will be delayed for at least two weeks until the infected players test negative. 

So bearing in mind that we are one match short, the Segunda División had an over-round of 103.7% this season using Pinnacle's Closing Price (except for one match where no prices were available when I used Bet 365's numbers).

Backing the Draw was profitable in both the "close" and "toss-up" categories this season.

However, important to note that with the highest percentage of drawn matches since 2003-04, simply blindly backing the Draw this season would have been profitable. Below are the numbers adjusted to a 103% over-round:
I'll take a look at La Liga next.

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