Friday, 31 July 2020

Second Leg Dependencies

As expected based on the league placings, the Championship Play-Off Final will be between West Londoners Brentford and Fulham. Both clubs reached the Final in different ways. 

Brentford lost the Away leg by one goal before winning the second leg. Historically, when clubs lose the first leg by one goal, the value is on them to lose the second leg. In play-off matches of this type from 2004 on, the Away in 40 such matches has an ROI of

Fulham on the other hand, won the Away first leg by two goals. This is a margin which is also hugely profitable for the Away win, although there have only been 14 such scenarios. With a two goal margin, perhaps teams psychologically consider the job is done, and even when losing by a goal, are still ahead in the tie and don't care too much. Fulham had nothing to gain from pushing for an equaliser, and everything to lose by opening the game up, a great example of why understanding the context is so critical in sports investing. 

For those interested, the results of second leg matches ordered by the lead the Home team has going into the game are shown in the table below:
Only small samples for many columns, but some interesting trends can be seen.

The NBA restarted its 2019 season last night with a couple of close games, and as I predicted here, the value was on Unders.

Meanwhile hot favourites continue to struggle in MLB, although the T-Bone System is off to a 5-0 start with three more selections today. 


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