Friday, 17 July 2020

National League Play-Offs 2019-20

Home teams in empty stadium playoff games haven't fared too well so with just two wins from the ten matches so far, including the Bundesliga playoffs.

Only one Home team started at odds-on, while the Away team was favourite in three matches 

Results are above with the over-round adjusted to 103% as Oddsportal's over-rounds tend to be a little higher than those of Pinnacle Sports. 

We have another game today, the National League's first Quarter-Final between Boreham Wood (2.2) and FC Halifax Town (4.0) with the Draw at 3.25. There are more playoff matches, including the National League North and South, this weekend. 

This is the third season with the current playoff format, and across all three divisions of the National League, of the 23 matches at the Quarter-Final stage, nine have been Home wins, with seven Away wins and seven Draws. In other words, Home advantage hasn't been great even with fans showing up.

Only two points separated these two clubs in the "final" table and while FC Halifax lost at home to Boreham Wood in the regular season, with the return fixture lost to the pandemic.

1 comment:

skeeve said...

Here's a couple of short priced in-play bets:

NL (in-play, at/starting with 0:1): (0) BOREHAM WOOD - Halifax (min. odds: 1.40) 0.5 point

Boreham Wood have been doing great before the covid shitstorm (only one defeat in as many as nineteen games - a narrow away defeat at Aldershot in February), especially at home (nine consecutive home games without a defeat, including wins against the likes of Harrogate and Yeovil and draws with the likes of Barnet and champions Barrow - these are all top-seven teams), they have an amazing record against top-half teams (a defeat away at champions Barrow back in early October, a narrow home defeat to Notts County back in late September, eight draws and as many as eleven wins), they've already won 2:0 away at Halifax back in mid-October and they've managed to keep all the players for this play-off campaign (keeper Smith and strikers Shaibu and Yussuf have all extended their loans) - only keeper Ashmore is missing today due to his suspension. With the likes of Shaibu, Yussuf and Shakes on the bench, that's plenty of options as far as 2nd half attacking changes are concerned.

Halifax, on the other hand, have lost their key striker Rodney (returned to his parent club Salford only to sign for Port Vale after he scored five goals in eight appearances during his recent loan and also seven goals in twelve appearances during a similar loan last season) after they've already lost their versatile first-choice forward McAlinden to rivals Stockport in January, they've failed to beat Boreham Wood for almost two and a half years, they've only won one of their last seven away games (away at Chorley, the worst team in the league by far), conceded as many as eleven and only scored five goals in these seven away games and they don't have a good record against fellow promotion hopefuls / top-seven teams (one home win, two draws and as many as six defeats, nine goals scored - four of which in a 4:2 home win vs Barnet back in September - and as many as seventeen goals conceded). With only one forward on the bench (Redshaw), they have much less options for the attacking 2nd half changes than the hosts. Rodney is definitely a huge miss for them up front.

Boreham Wood are also a bit better at set pieces and in the air and, all things considered, Pinnacle's 1.52 for this in-play draw-no-bet on Boreham Wood (the bet is won if Boreham Wood wins the remainder of the game, so in case of a home win or a draw, but we get our money back if it ends like this, with a narrow away win) looks excellent.

NL (in-play, at 0:1): Boreham Wood - Halifax OVER 2 GOALS (min. odds: 1.40) 0.5 point

I think there's a better chance for more goals here than these odds suggest. As I said, with the likes of Shaibu, Yussuf and Shakes on the bench, that's plenty of options as far as home team's 2nd half attacking changes are concerned and I'm pretty sure Boreham Wood will score today. Halifax, on the other hand, had some other chances along with the goal (and forced an excellent save from Smith just before the break, and I wouldn't be surprised with another away goal either. All things considered, Pinnacle's 1.54 for this OVER 2 GOALS bet (the bet is won if at least two more goals are scored, but we get our money back if exactly one more goal is scored) looks excellent.

Fingers crossed! :)