Friday, 31 July 2020

National League Play-Off Finals 2020

It's the National League play-off finals this weekend, with the Regional matches hosted by the higher seeded club.

In the North, that's Boston who play Altrincham. The hosts finished 3rd in the table, while their opponents finished 5th and when the two clubs met earlier this season, Boston won 5-0 at home.

In the South, it's a 3rd v 6th match-up with Dartford winning two Away games to win a third at Weymouth where they lost 1:3 earlier this season.

Looking at the 11 years of data for regional finals, the Draw is the profitable strategy with a 7.14 unit profit from the 22 matches, with at least one of the Finals ended all-square since 2013. Only one of those Draws had an odds-on favourite, and neither match tomorrow does. 

The play-off game for a place in the Football League next season is at neutral Wembley, where Notts County are favourites against Harrogate Town. 

Favourites since 2004 have a 5% ROI but again, the sample size is small. Notts County are the hottest favourites ever in this game (surprisingly no team has ever been odds-on) and having beaten and drawn with Harrogate Town earlier this season, are worth a bet.

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