Thursday, 2 July 2020

Lost In France 101

With 101 games remaining to be played, the French authorities decided to call it a season for Ligue 1 and unlike other leading countries decided not to go down the 'empty stadium' path.

Of the top five leagues in Europe, Ligue 1 is traditionally the lowest scoring, and this season was no exception with an average per game of 2.52 goals and, in complete contrast to Germany, Away teams averaged their lowest total since 2010-11 with just 1.03 goals per game.

Away teams in Bundesliga.1 averaged 1.55 goals per game this season, the highest of the top leagues since at least 1993-94 where my records go back to. As a result, the Away win percentage at 37.58% was also the highest.

Low goal scoring of course means a higher probability of the game being a Draw, but in Ligue 1 the markets are aware of this. Twenty matches actually had the Draw priced at shorter than 3.0 this season, generally not a profitable range but this season you would have made 0.68 units profit.

Of the 26 qualifiers in the "toss-up" category, the ROI was a little over 20% this season, but ROIs from this few selections is not too meaningful.

I mentioned here when looking at the EPL that when the Away side was favoured, ROIs were higher, and in Ligue 1 this is also true.

My records here go back to the start of the Pinnacle era, 2012-13, and of the 257 "toss-up" games where the Away side was favourite, the ROI is 30.6% compared to a negative 2.1% overall.

As has been seen in the EPL, there is a worrying trend regarding Pinnacle's over-round in this league too. 
From an average 102% in 2015-16, this has crept up in every one of the last four seasons and is now above 103%. 

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