Wednesday, 29 July 2020

Marlins Misery

Less than a week into the MLB season, and the Miami Marlins have 10% of their fixtures postponed after 17 members of the organisation tested positive for COVID-19. Other games are being postponed and re-scheduled as a result, which makes for an interesting time for investors on the sport.

It seems improbable that this will be the only team to suffer an outbreak during the season, and with limited dates to make up games we could have a League One / League Two-like scenario where final positions are decided on win percentage with teams playing a different total number of games.

Arguably, with a record 16 (of 30) teams making it to the play-offs this year, it doesn't matter too much! 

The early games have been good for the systems, with one glaring exception being the performance of hot favourites which, after a 5-0 start on Thursday and Friday, fell apart at the weekend with a rather disastrous 2-8 record. 

Results for the season so far are below, using the American method of calculating profits based on risking the line to win one unit when playing on favorites and risking one unit to win the line when playing on dogs.
Early days, and the million dollar question is will the favourites bounce back, or is this the new normal in a shortened season?

At around 1.6, Brentford may be the shortest price Home team in a Football League play-off match tonight. The top 10 shortest at this level for a second leg game are:
Some comfortable Home wins there, along with a couple of shock results with the Away team scoring four, but a shame that for Brentford's last match at Griffin Park, there will be no fans. 

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