There are five houses painted in five different colours.
In each house lives a person of a different nationality.
These five home-owners drink a certain drink, supports a certain football team and keep a certain pet.
Yet no owners drink the same drink, support the same team or have the same kind of pet.
An Englishman lives in the red house.
A Swede keeps dogs as pets.
A Dane drinks tea.
The green house is to the left of the white house.
The green house owner drinks coffee.
The person who supports Chelsea rears birds.
The owner of the yellow house supports Crystal Palace.
The man living in the centre house drinks milk.
The Norwegian lives in the first house.
The man who supports Arsenal lives next to the man who keeps cats.
The man who keeps horses lives next to the one who supports Crystal Palace.
The owner who supports Liverpool drinks beer.
The German supports Bayern Munich.
The Norwegian lives next to the blue house.
The man who supports Arsenal has a neighbour who drinks water.
Friday, 31 October 2008
Who Owns The Fish?
Thursday, 30 October 2008
Why I Love The NBA - Part One
A good example of why I love the NBA for trading. Pre-game prices for the New Orleans Hornets playing at the Golden State Warriors were approximately 1.4 / 3.5 respectively. The Hornets are one of the strongest teams in the West, and made the play-offs last season.
The Warriors were an exciting team last year, just falling short of making the play-offs. I say 'were' because they lost a couple of players during the close season, most notably Baron Davis who will be hard to replace, but Don Nelson is an experienced coach who likes to use 3 point shooting and I hope that continues this year.
Anyway, I'm waffling, but tonight's game was always close, when a time-out was called with 2:53 left in the game, the Hornets up by 2, but with the Warriors having 2 free throws after the time-out.
Guess the price on the Hornets at this time?
You were wrong. I'll tell you. The Hornets were trading in the 1.38 / 1.42 range. To me that is crazy, and crazy means value. Value means profit.
As it happened, the Hornets did go on to win the game by 5 points, but not before they had traded as high as 2.32 (I know because I put in a back at 2 and got matched at 2.32!).
Wednesday, 29 October 2008
NBA Is Back
Without a doubt, my favourite trading sport is back today with three games. Trading NBA games in-play is wonderfully exciting with the market quite often "wrong" during games. I have been watching for three seasons now, and learning and improving each year.
Liquidity is generally good, except on nights when most teams are in action when the money can be spread a little thinly, and there is no comparison with ice hockey.
Rather disappointing to see that BETDAQ are not turning these games in-play, but I will be placing my occasional straight punts on there.
Who will win the NBA Championship this year? My fancy is last year's losing finalists the Lakers (4.6 to win the NBA championship) in the strong West, with the Spurs (14) and the Suns (20) safe lays.
In the East, my lay is the Celtics (4.7). It's been a few years since a champion has repeated, and I don't expect Boston to end that sequence. Despite losing their opener, the Cavaliers (18) are good value to again make the play-offs and win the East.
Sunday, 26 October 2008
Handling Stress
I read an interesting article in Science magazine this week about how people respond in times of stress.
A recent study by scientists in Illinois and Texas found that when people feel out of control, common sense tends to go out the window, and they "start subscribing to conspiracy theories and superstitions, and seeing patterns where none exist". (Sound familiar, with the "it's a fix" wailings on the Betfair forum?)
Apparently, these findings support earlier studies from the Great Depression days when astrology and horoscopes became increasingly popular.
Personally, I find that handling stress is something I have been able to improve on, although physiologically my heart-rate still betrays me. (There's a certain sum of money that I can handle losing without stressing, but I haven't figured out what it is yet - but four figures will do it!).
So my decision making is more rational these days, and I find that trading sports in-play, it is often possible to see the scared money and take advantage of other peoples irrational decisions as they stroke their lucky rabbit's foot or pray to an imaginary man in the sky, who let's face, if he did exist, would hardly give a shit about you and your losing bet!
Wembley Woes
So much for my plan to back the Chargers at half-time today in the Wembley Stadium game. Receiving the ball first in the second-half, a solid opening drive would have seen them take the lead, but Vincent Jackson couldn't make a catch, and the game turned inexorably away from me.
Money can almost always be made at half-time or late in the first half, by backing the team who will be receiving the ball first coming out for the second half, but in this case greed saw me wait too long to take my profit.
Frustrating for just a few inches to make such a difference, but that's why they call it gambling I guess.
My worst loss of the season, but still healthily in profit overall this year, so I shall take the hit and carry on.
At least the game was an exciting one with a missed extra point, challenges, successful on-side kicks, and even an unusual safety at the end.
Saturday, 25 October 2008
Hull City
Another tremendous display from Hull City this afternoon. Having traded as low as 1.3 to be relegated, they are now 7 - with Stoke City, West Bromwich Albion, Bolton Wanderers, Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United all more favoured for the drop.
After the first day of the season, Paddypower paid out on Stoke City to be relegated, and Betting Directory wrote the following:
"With Stoke already relegated, the question is which two sides will be joinging them? Hull are the favourites at 2/5, which may be worth a bet, given there is a good chance of another early payout if they get beat at the weekend and West Brom are the even money second favourites. Manchester City were the biggest movers following the opening weekend, after a 4-2 defeat to Aston Villa and are now as short as 7/1 to be the shock inclusion in the bottom three come May.
Paddypower Premier League Relegation Odds: Hull 2/5 Stoke 4/9 West Brom Evs Fulham 5/2 Bolton 5/2 Wigan 3/1 Sunderland 5/1Man City 7/1 9/1 bar"
I'm sure Paddypower are relieved that they didn't pull the plug on Hull City although the publicity would have been priceless.
Chickens and Elephants
"I started out with nothing, and I still have most of it".
An old joke, but with house prices and the Stock Market dropping by the day, and no bottom in sight, (that sounds rather rude!), it doesn't seem quite so funny these days.
Of course the bottom will be reached at some point, and although recovery will be slow, (at least Pound Cost Averaging will help) at some point I will be back to where I was.
Advanced in my years as I am, I do (hopefully) still have a few years before retirement, and since I am not as stupid as I look (always a great relief to my Mother), I hope to have all my ducks in a row by that time.
Funny really how my sports investing has been a far better savings method over the past 4+ years than the more traditional stocks and shares.
My old parents are watching their HBOS shares lose value every day. I'm expecting them to ask me soon how to open an account on Betfair, but I shall point them over to BETDAQ. They can't be paying a Premium Charge at their age.
At the other end of the age spectrum, my son turns 18 next month. Since he is almost as gifted at Maths as I am, I think I could do worse than forget his new socks and gloves, but fund him a new Betting Exchange account instead.
Continuing with the financial (and toilet) humour, I read this Nassim Nicholas Taleb quote:
"Option sellers, it is said, eat like chickens and go to the bathroom like elephants"(Option sellers earn a steady small income from selling the options, but when a disaster happens they lose a fortune).
Friday, 24 October 2008
US Presidential Election
Obama has firmed up at 1.14 for the upcoming election. With less than two weeks to go, and a commanding lead in all polls, bar one, that looks to be a fair price.
At least no one could accuse the Associated Press of fudging the numbers. Their results just happen to differ from the others. Probability theory dictates that it is possible to obtain the opinions of 300 million people by using a sample of just 1,500. Below this number, and the margin of error gets larger; above this number, and the gains in accuracy are insignificant.
The founder of polls, George Gallup said that one spoonful can reflect the taste of the whole bowl of soup, if the soup is well-stirred. The APs spoonful just happened to be a little unstirred. Either that, or the US is in for a big shock come Election Day!
World Series
It's looking as if the World Series will head to Philadelphia with the Phillies and Rays tied at 1. As in the ALCS, Tampa Bay lost Game 1 at home, but in baseball home 'advantage' isn't the advantage that it is in other sports.
In fact, Tampa Bay have won 4 of five road games this post-season, and with Matt Garza (3 game ERA 3.32) pitching against Jamie Moyer (7.15) in the crucial Game 3, I would be very surprised if Tampa Bay are not favourites.
Back the Rays to win the World Series at anything over 1.8! (On BETDAQ of course).
Wednesday, 22 October 2008
Free Money
Sunday, 19 October 2008
Chargers @ Bills
The game on Sky is underway, and it looks like the liquidity on BETDAQ is coming on strong these days.
Certainly a lot higher than I was expecting. Here are two screenshots taken a few seconds apart early in the game.
Saturday, 18 October 2008
Betfair Apologises
About eight months after sneakily introducing 'cross-matching', Betfair apologises, apparently after a slap on the wrist from the Gambling Commission.
Cross matching basically meant that Betfair were matching customer A with themselves, and then themselves with customer B at two different prices, taking advanatge of the fact that quite often in fast moving markets such as tennis, someone will want to back player X at say 1.5 where 1.49 is available as a lay on player Y.
In breach of their terms and conditions where they say they will match you at the best price available, Betfair gave you the 1.5 you asked for, but then 'cross-matched' your bet at the 1.49 giving that customer the price they asked for, but pocketing the difference.
Apparently this little scam netted Betfair the not insignificant sum of £300,000 in just a few weeks.
"Cross matching was introduced without informing customers in advance. BGB [Befair General Betting] made revenues of approximately £300,000 from the inception of cross matching until the end of March 2008."
During an online discussion with Betfair Customer Services on March 19th, user "askari1" asked the reasonable question:
How much money has the engine / arber made for Betfair so far? If commerical confidentiality prevents you from quoting a figure, could you give some indication in terms of the total turned over on a typical event e.g a televised tennis match and / or the typical post-game commission taken by Betfair?
The answer was, at best, grossly misleading: "The biggest market the new code has operated on was the televised tennis match between Andy Murray and Roger Federer a couple of weeks ago. Approximately £6.85 million was matched in the market, and the amount accrued as a result of our inability to offer a price improvement when bets were matched across the two players was £882.91 . Obviously in well-traded markets like a big tennis match the amounts won and lost by customers are much less than the headline volume figure too, but as a percentage of what’s won or lost in each market the amount is small"
A few comments.
With blatantly misleading statements like this, it is hard to believe anything that Betfair says any more.
Will we be seeing an apology (and refunds) from Betfair in a few months for introducing a Premium Charge that is absolutely impossible to verify is correct and which will vary depending on just who happens to be active in ones losing markets - a factor that we have no control over?
How can Betfair justify removing £300,000 from the exchange with zero risk to themselves as ok, but winners who make profits after taking risks are penalised heavily?
Are the Gambling Commission investigating the introduction of the Premium Charge?
BETDAQ / Bet Angel Professional
I have been asked to publicise the release of Bet Angel Professional for use on BETDAQ.
I don't use third party software myself, but I may give this a try as it comes highly recommended by a number of users, and it's free. For a while anyway.
From those familiar with the software, it is almost identical to the Betfair version, other than the lack of market depth on the ladder interface and a slightly slower refresh rate.
You can download it from http://www.betangel.com/main/downloads.php#babd , and if you need any reminding - it's 2% commission at BETDAQ.
Friday, 17 October 2008
It Ain't Over
I had a small play on BETDAQ on the Boston Red Sox to beat the Tampa Bay Rays this morning at 1.72. The pitching match-up looked to favour the Red Sox with Matsuzaka having pitched 7 innings for no runs in Game 1 of this series, and the Ray's Kazmir having a nightmare giving up 5 runs in 4.1 innings in Game 2. The value looked to be with the Red Sox.
The price was four points better than Betfair, but my plans to lay the bet off after the Red Sox took the lead went adrift when the Rays took the lead and pulled ahead. In the bottom of the 7th, with two out, the Red Sox were down 0-7, but incredibly they came back to win 8-7.
Unfortunately I didn't lay any of the 1.01 that was traded on Betfair. Given that this was the biggest comeback in an ALCS game in nearly 80 years, and with just 7 outs remaining, I think the 1.01 was actually value.
Sometimes not being able to lay off can be a blessing in disguise, and only 2% commission on my winnings. I do have to say that for trading the game in-play, BETDAQ was really disappointing.
Thursday, 16 October 2008
Betfair Forum - Greg Wood
From the Guardian's Greg Wood, an article on the new 'civilised' Betfair Forum:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2008/oct/14/horseracing
No place for punter banter at smartened-up Betfair
For fans of Betfair, the hiving off of its forum is the latest sign of the exchange's rapid corporatisation
The users' forum on the Betfair betting exchange is not to everyone's taste. If some internet racing forums resemble a genteel discussion of matters of state in a Victorian drawing room, Betfair's can be more like a riot in the Coliseum.
Some contributors like to think of themselves as Caesar, while others never tire of adding their voice to the raucous background noise. More tender souls, meanwhile, could well end up as lion food.
But the Betfair forum is also by far the largest and most lively aggregation of racing fans and gamblers anywhere on the web. It has been an important part of the exchange's appeal almost from its launch eight years ago, a way to advertise the person-to-person basis of the site and increase the sense of community.
Like any community, of course, it has its share of members with personality disorders: the bullies, the fantasists and barefaced liars, and the ones with such deep-seated anger-management issues that they should probably be under lock and key.
But there are many others, too, who just want to talk punting with like-minded souls, and to do so in a forum where an honest opinion can be expressed, and even the odd insult hurled, without the sky falling in.
That, at least, is how it has always been, and those who didn't like it could easily surf off elsewhere. As of yesterday, though, the barbed wire may have started to fence off the wild frontier.
In a move which screams "float" even more plainly than the recent imposition of "premium charges" for some of its most successful clients, the responsibility for Betfair's forum has been hived off to a different part of the group - TSE Global Limited - with some important new procedures in place for forum users.
In particular, it will now be much easier to "report" other users (or at any rate, it will when the new forum actually works, since yesterday's launch survived for barely an hour before it crashed). This can only lead to the fairly rapid sanitisation of the entire forum.
Which is no bad thing, many would say. For anyone who has watched and admired Betfair's growth into a betting phenomenon, though, it follows the premium charge as the latest sign of the exchange's rapid corporatisation.
The punters who came together to make Betfair what it is are now just a means to an end, specifically a chunky share price when it floats. The forum, meanwhile, is a bit of an embarrassment.
Even Ben & Jerry sold out in the end, so the clear urge of Betfair's founders to spend more time with their money is both understandable and thoroughly well-earned. But when they are gone, what will remain?
This is surely the most intriguing question of all for punters who love the value and flexibility that exchange betting provides. Betfair's premium charge, remember, was apparently introduced because a small number of winners were felt to be draining too much money from the site's losers. Despite the dreadful PR, the money was required to keep the losers coming.
There must have been some good reason to allow their few rivals, along with many of their own customers, to kick them all over the park, and this one seems as plausible as any.
If Betfair had had a worthwhile competitor in the marketplace, though, it would never have dared to risk the loss of its precious liquidity. This, in turn, implies that its long-term viability may depend on the preservation of its effective monopoly in the market.
Now try this for a leap of logic. If a business model requires a monopoly to stop its customers eating it from within, then it is possible to argue that in the long term, it is a business model that doesn't work - which would be a good reason to cash in right now.
The graphs and projections at Betfair HQ no doubt suggest otherwise. It is arguable too that at some point in its expansion, it was inevitable that Betfair would want to draw a line under its humble beginnings and stride on into a shiny new profit-maximising future.
Sadly, an edgy, rough-house internet forum probably has no place in that.
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
US Presidential Election
The Presidential Election will be decided in twelve states. The outcome in the other 38, barring something bordering on miraculous, is already decided.
To become President, 270 Electoral College votes are required. Currently Obama has 233 'in the bag'; McCain has 155.
Obama thus needs 37 more votes.
A look at the latest polls in the twelve swing states shows Obama ahead in 10. North Carolina (15) is a tie, and Indiana (11) has McCain ahead.
Obama leads in the following swing states:
Florida (27) 51% - 46%
Pennsylvania (21) 55% - 40%
Ohio (20) 50% - 45%
Virginia (13) 50% - 47%
Missouri (11) 50% - 47%
Minnesota (10) 51% - 40%
Colorado (9) 52% - 43%
Nevada (5) 47% - 45%
West Virginia (5) 50% - 42%
North Dakota (3) 45% - 43%
Although the Bradley effect is a concern, a week in politics is a long time (there are still 4 weeks to go), and there is still one more debate, Obama is looking good for the win.
He has big leads in the three most important states, and if he picks up just one of those, it should be enough when combined with two or three others. Two of the top states, and he's home and dry.
Keep checking the latest polls, but to my mind he is good value at 1.22.
Update: 18/10 Of the ten states above, the Democrats are now odds-on favourites to win the top 8, (116 EC votes) - and we are looking at a landslide victory for Obama. That 1.22 is now down to 1.17, but still good value.
Sunday, 12 October 2008
American Football Elo
JPG recently asked me how I apply Elo ratings to American Football.
I find this easier than real football, for two reasons. One, the elimination of the draw as a possible outcome, and two, I use the ratings to directly determine a points differential between the two teams.
For example, today sees the New Orleans Saints at home to the Oakland Raiders. I have the Saints with a bonus for home advantage rated at 25 points, and the Raiders at 16. The handicap for this game has Saints -7.5 available at 2.16. To me this is value.
City Demoted
Some days, 'it' just isn't there. My two big plays of the day were a lay of England at half-time with a view to locking in a profit after 55 minutes which went south with Ferdinand's 52nd minute header. At least my trip to South Africa is looking promising if I can find some winners to pay for it with!
Then I had a bet on Notre Dame to beat North Carolina in the College Football when they were ahead by 2 points at a generous (I thought) 2.2, but with turnovers and very low liquidity on these games, it makes it an uphill task to trade so I ended up letting the bet run and Notre Dame came up just short. C'est la vie as we say in Surrey.
I did mange to find some winners: Florida v LSU, where I was able to green-up, Jamaica v Mexico, (Mexico were too short) and of course Salisbury City v Kettering Town mentioned in a previous post, but overall a losing day - my first of the month. Every cloud has a silver lining though - at least the Premium Charge has been lowered!
Speaking of Salisbury, I'm pleased that it really IS a city. I recently discovered that Brechin and Elgin are not cities at all, despite what their respective football league clubs names are, and I feel a bit cheated! They were cities at one time, but have been demoted to towns along with one other former city in Britain with a league team. Anyone name the town? Or the team?
Saturday, 11 October 2008
Salisbury City v Kettering Town
I recently mentioned that I was developing an Elo based football ratings system. I'm rating all the English teams down to the Conference North and South and all the Scottish League teams.
JPG commented that I should be "aware that the accuracy only comes into place after around 30 matches (for each team) have been rated". While I was aware that the ratings would take a while to settle down, I honestly hadn't considered that it would be February before I could start making my fortune. I have kids! I need money for Xmas! Thanks a lot JPG!
Seriously, the comment was appreciated, and as with any system, I shall be 'paper trading' this one first, or perhaps placing small 'live' bets as I did last Saturday, and it will be interesting to see how much the accuracy improves from now until the 30 games.
I would like to know where this value of 30 games comes from? I was thinking of trying it with American Football, but waiting for two years before it settles down is not appealing.
Anyway, with the lack of games tomorrow that I will be betting on, I thought I'd look into one game that Talkbet has mentioned on his blog - http://talkbet.typepad.com/talkbet/2008/10/october-10th-update-i.html - where he says to back Salisbury City at home to Kettering Town at 2.88+.
The game caught my eye, not only because Kettering have been my non-League team for many years going back to the 80s, but because Salisbury have been in something of a slump over the last five games (recent form is taken into consideration as well as the overall rating).
I ran the numbers and have Salisbury at 3.25 and Kettering at 2.49 and at the prices currently available on the exchanges, the value here in my opinion is with a lay of Salisbury. But only a small lay.
Come on the Poppies!
Update: A pleasing come from behind win for the Poppies, who stay second in the Conference, but more importantly remain atop my own personal rankings for their division as do Chelsea, Reading, Leicester City, Rotherham, Tamworth, Team Bath, Celtic, Dunfermline, Brechin City and Stenhousemuir.
