Friday 24 October 2008

US Presidential Election

Obama has firmed up at 1.14 for the upcoming election. With less than two weeks to go, and a commanding lead in all polls, bar one, that looks to be a fair price.

At least no one could accuse the Associated Press of fudging the numbers. Their results just happen to differ from the others. Probability theory dictates that it is possible to obtain the opinions of 300 million people by using a sample of just 1,500. Below this number, and the margin of error gets larger; above this number, and the gains in accuracy are insignificant.

The founder of polls, George Gallup said that one spoonful can reflect the taste of the whole bowl of soup, if the soup is well-stirred. The APs spoonful just happened to be a little unstirred. Either that, or the US is in for a big shock come Election Day!


Stock Lemon said...

Obama looks like a pretty good bet here, even though it's tough to bet him at these odds.

Cassini said...

Agreed - I backed him as low as 1.22 a couple of weeks ago but the Bradley-Wilder effect is a slight concern which puts me off backing at 1.13.