US Presidential Election

The Presidential Election will be decided in twelve states. The outcome in the other 38, barring something bordering on miraculous, is already decided.

To become President, 270 Electoral College votes are required. Currently Obama has 233 'in the bag'; McCain has 155.

Obama thus needs 37 more votes.

A look at the latest polls in the twelve swing states shows Obama ahead in 10. North Carolina (15) is a tie, and Indiana (11) has McCain ahead.
Obama leads in the following swing states:

Florida (27) 51% - 46%
Pennsylvania (21) 55% - 40%
Ohio (20) 50% - 45%
Virginia (13) 50% - 47%
Missouri (11) 50% - 47%
Minnesota (10) 51% - 40%
Colorado (9) 52% - 43%
Nevada (5) 47% - 45%
West Virginia (5) 50% - 42%
North Dakota (3) 45% - 43%

Although the Bradley effect is a concern, a week in politics is a long time (there are still 4 weeks to go), and there is still one more debate, Obama is looking good for the win.

He has big leads in the three most important states, and if he picks up just one of those, it should be enough when combined with two or three others. Two of the top states, and he's home and dry.

Keep checking the latest polls, but to my mind he is good value at 1.22.

Update: 18/10 Of the ten states above, the Democrats are now odds-on favourites to win the top 8, (116 EC votes) - and we are looking at a landslide victory for Obama. That 1.22 is now down to 1.17, but still good value.