Sunday, 2 January 2011

The Accidental Winner

I'm not very good at this PC reduction thing. Last night I placed a bet on the New Orleans Hornets giving 1.5, and another on the Washington Wizards straight up. The idea is of course that any result other than a one point win by the Hornets results in a profit. The Hornets -1.5 bet was duly matched at 1.99 but someone forgot about it, and only checked as the game was winding down. Result: The Hornets won by 11, so the error resulted in a bigger win than should have been the case. Not quite the billion illustrated though, but it all helps.

There is one game today that fits the 1.5 bill, although Betfair have not yet put up the handicap markets for the Toronto v Boston and Cleveland v Dallas games. The Atlanta Hawks are -1.5 v the Los Angeles Clippers and are about 2.0. Straight up, the Clippers are backable at around 2.1.

Overall, New Years Day was a good one, but it could have been so much better. I layed a sizeable bet at 1.15 in the College Football Rose Bowl game between the Horned Frogs of TCU and the Wisconsin Badgers with TCU up by eight points and Wisconsin driving. Eight points is a touchdown and the two-point conversion, and Wisconsin did score the touchdown. Unfortunately, they couldn't convert the two point try and I was left with a four figure green on the losing team and a two figure loss on the winning team - a little frustrating but the 1.15 lay was a value bet and I'll be looking for more similar bets during the next few days as College Football ends its season. Liquidity picks up during the Bowl games, and if you stay patient, opoortunites do pop up.

No football bets of my own today, but I did follow Football Elite with a punt on Wigan (DNB) to beat Newcastle United. A 0-1 loss meant that both FE and Drawmaster lost on this game.

A word of warning before anyone goes crazy on the final week of the regular NFL season. This final week can be a minefield, with play-off bound and eliminated teams both resting players, albeit for different reasons. As the GoldSheet says:

Recent history provides some interesting Week 17 numbers; since 2007, favorites have outperformed the dogs each season in final weekend action, with a cumulative 27-18 mark vs. the line. Which is somewhat illuminating, as spreads in the final week often become inflated because of the pre-announced personnel changes (often involving backup QBs), and squads such as last year's Buffalo end up laying points to teams they'd normally not be favored against in a normal regular-season week. As always, it's a good idea to handicap these games individually, not collectively.
No pre-game punts for me, but I'll probably get involved in-play when the attitudes and personnel for the teams is known. As the article said, some of these final week games resemble the pre-season exhibition games, and in the NFL, teams benefit from losing in that not only do they receive a weaker schedule the following season, but they also move up the draft ladder - no draft lottery such as the NBA has.

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